A General Modeling Framework for Describing Spatially Structured Population Dynamics

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network‐based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life‐history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network‐based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real‐world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network‐based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert‐based assessment

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid‐21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio‐economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best‐case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best‐case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post‐2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity

Ventral and dorsal striatal dopamine efflux and behavior in rats with simple vs. co-morbid histories of cocaine sensitization and neonatal ventral hippocampal lesions

xposing animal models of mental illness to addictive drugs provides an approach to understanding the neural etiology of dual diagnosis disorders. Previous studies have shown that neonatal ventral hippocampal lesions (NVHL) in rats produce features of both schizophrenia and addiction vulnerability. Objective This study investigated ventral and dorsal striatal dopamine (DA) efflux in NVHL rats combined with behavioral sensitization to cocaine. Methods Adult NVHL vs. SHAM-operated rats underwent a 5-day injection series of cocaine (15 mg/kg/day) vs. saline. One week later, rats were cannulated in nucleus accumbens SHELL, CORE, or caudate–putamen. Another week later, in vivo microdialysis sampled DA during locomotor testing in which a single cocaine injection (15 mg/kg) was delivered. Results NVHLs and cocaine history significantly increased behavioral activation approximately 2-fold over SHAM-saline history rats. DA efflux curves corresponded time dependently with the cocaine injection and locomotor curves and varied significantly by striatal region: Baseline DA levels increased 5-fold while cocaine-stimulated DA efflux decreased by half across a ventral to dorsal striatal gradient. However, NVHLs, prior cocaine history, and individual differences in behavior were not underpinned by differential DA efflux overall or within any striatal region.Conclusion Differences in ventral/dorsal striatal DA efflux are not present in and are not required for producing differential levels of acute cocaine-induced behavioral activation in NVHLs with and without a behaviorally sensitizing cocaine history. These findings suggest other neurotransmitter systems, and alterations in striatal network function post-synaptic to DA transmission are more important to understanding the interactive effects of addictive drugs and mental illness

Enhancing monitoring and transboundary collaboration for conserving migratory species under global change: The priority case of the red kite

Calls for urgent action to conserve biodiversity under global change are increasing, and conservation of migratory species in this context poses special challenges. In the last two decades the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) has provided a framework for several subsidiary instruments including action plans for migratory bird species, but the effectiveness and transferability of these plans remain unclear. Such laws and policies have been credited with positive outcomes for the conservation of migratory species, but the lack of international coordination and on-ground implementation pose major challenges. While research on migratory populations has received growing attention, considerably less emphasis has been given to integrating ecological information throughout the annual cycle for examining strategies to conserve migratory species at multiple scales in the face of global change. We fill this gap through a case study examining the ecological status and conservation of a migratory raptor and facultative scavenger, the red kite (Milvus milvus), whose current breeding range is limited to Europe and is associated with agricultural landscapes and restricted to the temperate zone. Based on our review, conservation actions have been successful at recovering red kite populations within certain regions. Populations however remain depleted along the southern-most edge of the geographic range where many migratory red kites from northern strongholds overwinter. This led us to a forward-looking and integrated strategy that emphasizes international coordination involving researchers and conservation practitioners to enhance the science-policy-action interface. We identify and explore key issues for conserving the red kite under global change, including enhancing conservation actions within and outside protected areas, recovering depleted populations, accounting for climate change, and transboundary coordination in adaptive conservation and management actions. The integrated conservation strategy is sufficiently general such that it can be adapted to inform conservation of other highly mobile species subject to global change.Financial and logistic support were provided by GREFA, IREC, UCLM (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha), CSIC and MITECO.Peer reviewe

Introducing and Evaluating a Knowledge Transfer Approach to Support Problem Solving in and Around Protected Areas

Protected areas (PAs) can generate many benefits inside and outside their borders, and achieving objectives for diverse stakeholders raises many challenges. There are many examples of successful PA management around the globe, although a systematic and comprehensive approach to developing and sharing these solutions has been lacking. We present “solutioning” as a structured process of peer-learning, which can inform management strategies in and around protected areas. We explain how the PANORAMA—Solutions for a Healthy Planet initiative has put solutioning into practice through an interactive community and web portal to learn about protected area solutions around the globe. Unlike other web platforms and initiatives reviewed, PANORAMA facilitates adaptation of solution elements (i.e., building blocks) for novel implementation. Supported by theories of resilience and peer-learning, PANORAMA appears to have potential to promote efficiency and equitable benefits for PAs and associated stakeholders focused on nature conservation and sustainable development, although further research is needed to assess whether this learning leads to better solutions or more effective PA management

Successes and Challenges from Formation to Implementation of Eleven Broad-Extent Conservation Programs

Integration of conservation partnerships across geographic, biological, and administrative boundaries is increasingly relevant because drivers of change, such as climate shifts, transcend these boundaries. We explored successes and challenges of established conservation programs that span multiple watersheds and consider both social and ecological concerns. We asked representatives from a diverse set of 11 broadextent conservation partnerships in 29 countries 17 questions that pertained to launching and maintaining partnerships for broad-extent conservation, specifying ultimate management objectives, and implementation and learning. Partnerships invested more funds in implementing conservation actions than any other aspect of conservation, and a program’s context (geographic extent, United States vs. other countries, developed vs. developing nation) appeared to substantially affect program approach. Despite early successes of these organizations and benefits of broad-extent conservation, specific challenges related to uncertainties in scaling up information and to coordination in the face of diverse partner governance structures, conflicting objectives, and vast uncertainties regarding future system dynamics hindered long-term success, as demonstrated by the focal organizations. Engaging stakeholders, developing conservation measures, and implementing adaptive management were dominant challenges. To inform future research on broad-extent conservation, we considered several challenges when we developed detailed questions, such as what qualities of broad-extent partnerships ensure they complement, integrate, and strengthen, rather than replace, local conservation efforts and which adaptive management processes yield actionable conservation strategies that account explicitly for dynamics and uncertainties regarding multiscale governance, environmental conditions, and knowledge of the system

Appendix 1+2 for 'Accounting for observation biases associated with counts of young when estimating fecundity: case study on the arboreal-nesting red kite (Milvus milvus)'

<p>Appendix 1 and 2 for manuscript titled 'Accounting for observation biases associated with counts of young when estimating fecundity: case study on the arboreal-nesting red kite (Milvus milvus)' by Sollmann, R., Adenot, N., Spakovszky, P., Windt, J. , Mattsson, B., submitted to Peer Community Journal.</p><p>Appendix 1: Additional information and results from estimation simulation and population projections</p><p>Appendix 2: Median bias, precision and accuracy of parameter estimates</p><p>For details, see main text. </p&gt

Coffee agroforests remain beneficial for neotropical bird community conservation across seasons.

Coffee agroforestry systems and secondary forests have been shown to support similar bird communities but comparing these habitat types are challenged by potential biases due to differences in detectability between habitats. Furthermore, seasonal dynamics may influence bird communities differently in different habitat types and therefore seasonal effects should be considered in comparisons. To address these issues, we incorporated seasonal effects and factors potentially affecting bird detectability into models to compare avian community composition and dynamics between coffee agroforests and secondary forest fragments. In particular, we modeled community composition and community dynamics of bird functional groups based on habitat type (coffee agroforest vs. secondary forest) and season while accounting for variation in capture probability (i.e. detectability). The models we used estimated capture probability to be similar between habitat types for each dietary guild, but omnivores had a lower capture probability than frugivores and insectivores. Although apparent species richness was higher in coffee agroforest than secondary forest, model results indicated that omnivores and insectivores were more common in secondary forest when accounting for heterogeneity in capture probability. Our results largely support the notion that shade-coffee can serve as a surrogate habitat for secondary forest with respect to avian communities. Small coffee agroforests embedded within the typical tropical countryside matrix of secondary forest patches and small-scale agriculture, therefore, may host avian communities that resemble those of surrounding secondary forest, and may serve as viable corridors linking patches of forest within these landscapes. This information is an important step toward effective landscape-scale conservation in Neotropical agricultural landscapes