631 research outputs found

    Multiple imputation for interval censored data with auxiliary variables

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    We propose a non-parametric multiple imputation scheme, NPMLE imputation, for the analysis of interval censored survival data. Features of the method are that it converts interval-censored data problems to complete data or right censored data problems to which many standard approaches can be used, and that measures of uncertainty are easily obtained. In addition to the event time of primary interest, there are frequently other auxiliary variables that are associated with the event time. For the goal of estimating the marginal survival distribution, these auxiliary variables may provide some additional information about the event time for the interval censored observations. We extend the imputation methods to incorporate information from auxiliary variables with potentially complex structures. To conduct the imputation, we use a working failure-time proportional hazards model to define an imputing risk set for each censored observation. The imputation schemes consist of using the data in the imputing risk sets to create an exact event time for each interval censored observation. In simulation studies we show that the use of multiple imputation methods can improve the efficiency of estimators and reduce the effect of missing visits when compared to simpler approaches. We apply the approach to cytomegalovirus shedding data from an AIDS clinical trial, in which CD4 count is the auxiliary variable. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/55943/1/2581_ftp.pd

    HIV infection and stroke:current perspectives and future directions

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    HIV infection can result in stroke via several mechanisms, including opportunistic infection, vasculopathy, cardioembolism, and coagulopathy. However, the occurrence of stroke and HIV infection might often be coincidental. HIV-associated vasculopathy describes various cerebrovascular changes, including stenosis and aneurysm formation, vasculitis, and accelerated atherosclerosis, and might be caused directly or indirectly by HIV infection, although the mechanisms are controversial. HIV and associated infections contribute to chronic inflammation. Combination antiretroviral therapies (cART) are clearly beneficial, but can be atherogenic and could increase stroke risk. cART can prolong life, increasing the size of the ageing population at risk of stroke. Stroke management and prevention should include identification and treatment of the specific cause of stroke and stroke risk factors, and judicious adjustment of the cART regimen. Epidemiological, clinical, biological, and autopsy studies of risk, the pathogenesis of HIV-associated vasculopathy (particularly of arterial endothelial damage), the long-term effects of cART, and ideal stroke treatment in patients with HIV are needed, as are antiretrovirals that are without vascular risk

    Abatacept Pharmacokinetics and Exposure Response in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: A Secondary Analysis of the ACTIV-1 IM Randomized Clinical Trial

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    IMPORTANCE: The pharmacokinetics of abatacept and the association between abatacept exposure and outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19 are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To characterize abatacept pharmacokinetics, relate drug exposure with clinical outcomes, and evaluate the need for dosage adjustments. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study is a secondary analysis of data from the ACTIV-1 (Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines) Immune Modulator (IM) randomized clinical trial conducted between October 16, 2020, and December 31, 2021. The trial included hospitalized adults who received abatacept in addition to standard of care for treatment of COVID-19 pneumonia. Data analysis was performed between September 2022 and February 2024. EXPOSURE: Single intravenous infusion of abatacept (10 mg/kg with a maximum dose of 1000 mg). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Mortality at day 28 was the primary outcome of interest, and time to recovery at day 28 was the secondary outcome. Drug exposure was assessed using the projected area under the serum concentration time curve over 28 days (AUC0-28). Logistic regression modeling was used to analyze the association between drug exposure and 28-day mortality, adjusted for age, sex, and disease severity. The association between time to recovery and abatacept exposure was examined using Fine-Gray modeling with death as a competing risk, and was adjusted for age, sex, and disease severity. RESULTS: Of the 509 patients who received abatacept, 395 patients with 848 serum samples were included in the population pharmacokinetic analysis. Their median age was 55 (range, 19-89) years and most (250 [63.3%]) were men. Abatacept clearance increased with body weight and more severe disease activity at baseline. Drug exposure was higher in patients who survived vs those who died, with a median AUC0-28 of 21 428 (range, 8462-43 378) mg × h/L vs 18 262 (range, 9628-27 507) mg × h/L (P \u3c .001). Controlling for age, sex, and disease severity, an increase of 5000 units in AUC0-28 was associated with lower odds of mortality at day 28 (OR, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.35-0.79]; P = .002). For an AUC0-28 of 19 400 mg × h/L or less, there was a higher probability of recovery at day 28 (hazard ratio, 2.63 [95% CI, 1.70-4.08] for every 5000-unit increase; P \u3c .001). Controlling for age, sex, and disease severity, every 5000-unit increase in AUC0-28 was also associated with lower odds of a composite safety event at 28 days (OR, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.33-0.63]; P \u3c .001). Using the dosing regimen studied in the ACTIV-1 IM trial, 121 of the 395 patients (30.6%) would not achieve an abatacept exposure of at least 19 400 mg × h/L, particularly at the extremes of body weight. Using a modified, higher-dose regimen, only 12 patients (3.0%) would not achieve the hypothesized target abatacept exposure. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, patients who were hospitalized with severe COVID-19 and achieved higher projected abatacept exposure had reduced mortality and a higher probability of recovery with fewer safety events. However, abatacept clearance was high in this population, and the current abatacept dosing (10 mg/kg intravenously with a maximum of 1000 mg) may not achieve optimal exposure in all patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04593940

    Risks and Benefits of Preexposure and Postexposure Smallpox Vaccination1

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    This article presents a model and decision criteria for evaluating a person’s risk of pre- or postexposure smallpox vaccination in light of serious vaccine-related adverse events (death, postvaccine encephalitis and progressive vaccinia). Even at a 1-in-10 risk of 1,000 initial smallpox cases, a person in a population of 280 million has a greater risk for serious vaccine-related adverse events than a risk for smallpox. For a healthcare worker to accept preexposure vaccination, the risk for contact with an infectious smallpox case-patient must be >1 in 100, and the probability of 1,000 initial cases must be >1 in 1,000. A member of an investigation team would accept preexposure vaccination if his or her anticipated risk of contact is 1 in 2.5 and the risk of attack is assumed to be >1 in 16,000. The only circumstances in which postexposure vaccination would not be accepted are the following: if vaccine efficacy were <1%, the risk of transmission were <1%, and (simultaneously) the risk for serious vaccine-related adverse events were >1 in 5,000

    Transmission patterns of smallpox: systematic review of natural outbreaks in Europe and North America since World War II

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    BACKGROUND: Because smallpox (variola major) may be used as a biological weapon, we reviewed outbreaks in post-World War II Europe and North America in order to understand smallpox transmission patterns. METHODS: A systematic review was used to identify papers from the National Library of Medicine, Embase, Biosis, Cochrane Library, Defense Technical Information Center, WorldCat, and reference lists of included publications. Two authors reviewed selected papers for smallpox outbreaks. RESULTS: 51 relevant outbreaks were identified from 1,389 publications. The median for the effective first generation reproduction rate (initial R) was 2 (range 0–38). The majority outbreaks were small (less than 5 cases) and contained within one generation. Outbreaks with few hospitalized patients had low initial R values (median of 1) and were prolonged if not initially recognized (median of 3 generations); outbreaks with mostly hospitalized patients had higher initial R values (median 12) and were shorter (median of 3 generations). Index cases with an atypical presentation of smallpox were less likely to have been diagnosed with smallpox; outbreaks in which the index case was not correctly diagnosed were larger (median of 27.5 cases) and longer (median of 3 generations) compared to outbreaks in which the index case was correctly diagnosed (median of 3 cases and 1 generation). CONCLUSION: Patterns of spread during Smallpox outbreaks varied with circumstances, but early detection and implementation of control measures is a most important influence on the magnitude of outbreaks. The majority of outbreaks studied in Europe and North America were controlled within a few generations if detected early

    Outcome of AIDS-associated cryptococcal meningitis initially treated with 200 mg/day or 400 mg/day of fluconazole

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    BACKGROUND: AIDS-associated cryptococcal meningitis has a high mortality. Fluconazole was the only systemic antifungal therapy available in our centre. From 1999–2001 we used low-dose fluconazole (200 mg daily initially), and did not offer therapy to patients perceived to have poor prognoses. In 2001 donated fluconazole became available, allowing us to use standard doses (400 mg daily initially). Antiretroviral therapy was not available during the study period. METHODS: Retrospective chart review of adult patients before and after the fluconazole donation. RESULTS: 205 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria, 77 before and 128 after the donation. Following the donation fewer patients received no antifungal treatment (5% vs 19%, p = 0.002), and more patients received standard-dose fluconazole (90% vs 6%, p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was 25%. Impaired consciousness, no antifungal treatment received and cerebrospinal fluid antigen titre > 1,000 were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Concomitant rifampicin did not affect in-hospital survival. Thirteen patients were referred to the tertiary referral hospital and received initial treatment with amphotericin B for a mean of 6 days – their in-hospital survival was not different from patients who received only fluconazole (p = 0.9). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed no differences in length of survival by initial treatment with standard or low doses of fluconazole (p = 0.27 log rank test); median survival was 76 and 82 days respectively. CONCLUSION: Outcome of AIDS-associated cryptococcal meningitis is similar with low or standard doses of fluconazole. The early mortality is high. Initial therapy with amphotericin B and other measures may be needed to improve outcome

    Implementing and evaluating a regional strategy to improve testing rates in VA patients at risk for HIV, utilizing the QUERI process as a guiding framework: QUERI Series

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We describe how we used the framework of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI) to develop a program to improve rates of diagnostic testing for the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). This venture was prompted by the observation by the CDC that 25% of HIV-infected patients do not know their diagnosis – a point of substantial importance to the VA, which is the largest provider of HIV care in the United States.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Following the QUERI steps (or process), we evaluated: 1) whether undiagnosed HIV infection is a high-risk, high-volume clinical issue within the VA, 2) whether there are evidence-based recommendations for HIV testing, 3) whether there are gaps in the performance of VA HIV testing, and 4) the barriers and facilitators to improving current practice in the VA.</p> <p>Based on our findings, we developed and initiated a QUERI step 4/phase 1 pilot project using the precepts of the Chronic Care Model. Our improvement strategy relies upon electronic clinical reminders to provide <it>decision support</it>; audit/feedback as a <it>clinical information system</it>, and appropriate changes in <it>delivery system design</it>. These activities are complemented by academic detailing and social marketing interventions to achieve <it>provider activation</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our preliminary formative evaluation indicates the need to ensure leadership and team buy-in, address facility-specific barriers, refine the reminder, and address factors that contribute to inter-clinic variances in HIV testing rates. Preliminary unadjusted data from the first seven months of our program show 3–5 fold increases in the proportion of at-risk patients who are offered HIV testing at the VA sites (stations) where the pilot project has been undertaken; no change was seen at control stations.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This project demonstrates the early success of the application of the QUERI process to the development of a program to improve HIV testing rates. Preliminary unadjusted results show that the coordinated use of audit/feedback, provider activation, and organizational change can increase HIV testing rates for at-risk patients. We are refining our program prior to extending our work to a small-scale, multi-site evaluation (QUERI step 4/phase 2). We also plan to evaluate the durability/sustainability of the intervention effect, the costs of HIV testing, and the number of newly identified HIV-infected patients. Ultimately, we will evaluate this program in other geographically dispersed stations (QUERI step 4/phases 3 and 4).</p

    Retrivability in The Danish National Hospital Registry of HIV and hepatitis B and C coinfection diagnoses of patients managed in HIV centers 1995–2004

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hospital-based discharge registries are used increasingly for longitudinal epidemiological studies of HIV. We examined completeness of registration of HIV infections and of chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) coinfections in the Danish National Hospital Registry (DNHR) covering all Danish hospitals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Danish HIV Cohort Study (DHCS) encompasses all HIV-infected patients treated in Danish HIV clinics since 1 January 1995. All 2,033 Danish patients in DHCS diagnosed with HIV-1 during the 10-year period from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2004 were included in the current analysis. We used the DHCS as a reference to examine the completeness of HIV and of HBV and HCV coinfections recorded in DNHR. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios of time to diagnosis of HIV in DNHR compared to DHCS.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 2,033 HIV patients in DHCS, a total of 2,006 (99%) were registered with HIV in DNHR. Of these, 1,888 (93%) were registered in DNHR within one year of their first positive HIV test. A CD4 < 200 cells/μl, a viral load >= 100,000 copies/ml and being diagnosed after 1 January 2000, were associated with earlier registration in DNHR, both in crude and adjusted analyses. Thirty (23%) HIV patients registered with chronic HBV (n = 129) in DHCS and 126 (48%) of HIV patients with HCV (n = 264) in DHCS were registered with these diagnoses in the DNHR. Further 17 and 8 patients were registered with HBV and HCV respectively in DNHR, but not in DHCS. The positive predictive values of being registered with HBV and HCV in DHCS were thereby estimated to 0.88 and 0.97 and in DNHR to 0.32 and 0.54.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study demonstrates that secondary data from national hospital databases may be reliable for identification of patients diagnosed with HIV infection. However, the predictive value of co-morbidity data may be low.</p

    Microalbuminuria associated with indicators of inflammatory activity in an HIV-positive population

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    Background. The survival of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients has increased significantly since the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy, leading to the development of important long-term complications including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and renal disease. Microalbuminuria, an indicator of glomerular injury, is associated with an increased risk of progressive renal deterioration, CVD and mortality. However, the prevalence of microalbuminuria has barely been investigated in HIV-infected individuals
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