Improving official statistics in emerging markets using machine learning and mobile phone data

Mobile phones are one of the fastest growing technologies in the developing world with global penetration rates reaching 90%. Mobile phone data, also called CDR, are generated everytime phones are used and recorded by carriers at scale. CDR have generated groundbreaking insights in public health, official statistics, and logistics. However, the fact that most phones in developing countries are prepaid means that the data lacks key information about the user, including gender and other demographic variables. This precludes numerous uses of this data in social science and development economic research. It furthermore severely prevents the development of humanitarian applications such as the use of mobile phone data to target aid towards the most vulnerable groups during crisis. We developed a framework to extract more than 1400 features from standard mobile phone data and used them to predict useful individual characteristics and group estimates. We here present a systematic cross-country study of the applicability of machine learning for dataset augmentation at low cost. We validate our framework by showing how it can be used to reliably predict gender and other information for more than half a million people in two countries. We show how standard machine learning algorithms trained on only 10,000 users are sufficient to predict individual’s gender with an accuracy ranging from 74.3 to 88.4% in a developed country and from 74.5 to 79.7% in a developing country using only metadata. This is significantly higher than previous approaches and, once calibrated, gives highly accurate estimates of gender balance in groups. Performance suffers only marginally if we reduce the training size to 5,000, but significantly decreases in a smaller training set. We finally show that our indicators capture a large range of behavioral traits using factor analysis and that the framework can be used to predict other indicators of vulnerability such as age or socio-economic status. Mobile phone data has a great potential for good and our framework allows this data to be augmented with vulnerability and other information at a fraction of the cost

Changes in adolescents' intake of sugar-sweetened beverages and sedentary behaviour: Results at 8 month mid-way assessment of the HEIA study - a comprehensive, multi-component school-based randomized trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Inconsistent effects of school-based obesity prevention interventions may be related to how different subgroups receive them. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of an intervention program, including fact sheets to parents and classroom components, on intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and screen time. Further, to explore whether potential effects and parental involvement varied by adolescents' gender, weight status (WS) and parental educational level.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In total, 1465 11-year-olds participated at the pre-test and the 8 month mid-way assessment of the HEIA study. Parents (n = 349) contributed with process evaluation data. Self-reported intake of SSB was collected from the 11-year-olds assessing frequency and amount, while time used on watching TV/DVD and computer/game-use (weekday and weekend day) were assed by frequency measures. Data on awareness of the intervention and dose received were collected from parents. Covariance analyses (ANCOVA) were conducted testing for effects by gender and for moderation by WS and parental education.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Time spent on TV/DVD (week p = 0.001, weekend p = 0.03) and computer/game-use (week p = 0.004, weekend p <.001), and the intake of SSB during weekend days (p = 0.04), were significantly lower among girls in the intervention group compared to the control group girls after 8 months. Girls' WS did not moderate these findings. However, no significant effects of the intervention were found for boys, but moderation effects were found for WS (week days: TV/DVD, p = 0.03 and computer/games, p = 0.02). There were no moderating effects of parental education for neither boys nor girls with respect to intake of SSB, time used for watching TV/DVD and computer/game-use. Parental awareness of the intervention was significantly higher among the parents of girls, while the parents of boys were more satisfied with the fact sheets.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The preventive initiatives appeared to change behaviour in girls only. This study suggests that exploration of potential beneficial or negative effects of intervention in subgroups is important. In formative evaluation of obesity prevention studies it seems warranted to include issues related to gender, WS and parental involvement in order to enhance the effectiveness of preventive initiatives.</p

Plasma free choline, betaine and cognitive performance: the Hordaland Health Study

Choline and betaine are nutrients involved in one-carbon metabolism. Choline is essential for neurodevelopment and brain function. We studied the associations between cognitive function and plasma concentrations of free choline and betaine. In a cross-sectional study, 2195 subjects (55 % women), aged 70–74 years, underwent extensive cognitive testing including the Kendrick Object Learning Test (KOLT), Trail Making Test (part A, TMT-A), modified versions of the Digit Symbol Test (m-DST), Block Design (m-BD), Mini-Mental State Examination (m-MMSE) and Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT). Compared with low concentrations, high choline (>8·4 μmol/l) was associated with better test scores in the TMT-A (56·0 v. 61·5, P= 0·004), m-DST (10·5 v. 9·8, P= 0·005) and m-MMSE (11·5 v. 11·4, P= 0·01). A generalised additive regression model showed a positive dose–response relationship between the m-MMSE and choline (P= 0·012 from a corresponding linear regression model). Betaine was associated with the KOLT, TMT-A and COWAT, but after adjustments for potential confounders, the associations lost significance. Risk ratios (RR) for poor test performance roughly tripled when low choline was combined with either low plasma vitamin B12 ( ≤ 257 pmol/l) concentrations (RRKOLT= 2·6, 95 % CI 1·1, 6·1; RRm-MMSE= 2·7, 95 % CI 1·1, 6·6; RRCOWAT= 3·1, 95 % CI 1·4, 7·2) or high methylmalonic acid (MMA) ( ≥ 3·95 μmol/l) concentrations (RRm-BD= 2·8, 95 % CI 1·3, 6·1). Low betaine ( ≤ 31·1 μmol/l) combined with high MMA was associated with elevated RR on KOLT (RRKOLT= 2·5, 95 % CI 1·0, 6·2). Low plasma free choline concentrations are associated with poor cognitive performance. There were significant interactions between low choline or betaine and low vitamin B12 or high MMA on cognitive performance.publishedVersio

Interbreeding between local and translocated populations of a cleaner fish in an experimental mesocosm predicts risk of disrupted local adaptation

Source at https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5246.Translocation of organisms within or outside its native range carries the risk of modifying the community of the recipient ecosystems and induces gene flow between locally adapted populations or closely related species. In this study, we evaluated the genetic consequences of large‐scale translocation of cleaner wrasses that has become a common practice within the salmon aquaculture industry in northern Europe to combat sea lice infestation. A major concern with this practice is the potential for hybridization of escaped organisms with the local, recipient wrasse population, and thus potentially introduce exogenous alleles and breaking down coadapted gene complexes in local populations. We investigated the potential threat for such genetic introgressions in a large seminatural mesocosm basin. The experimental setting represented a simulated translocation of corkwing wrasse (Symphodus melops) that occurs on a large scale in the Norwegian salmon industry. Parentage assignment analysis of mesocosm's offspring revealed 30% (195 out of 651 offspring) interbreeding between the two populations, despite their being genetically (FST = 0.094, p < 0.05) and phenotypically differentiated. Moreover, our results suggest that reproductive fitness of the translocated western population doubled that of the local southern population. Our results confirm that human translocations may overcome the impediments imposed by natural habitat discontinuities and urge for immediate action to manage the genetic resources of these small benthic wrasses

Depression and anxiety in adolescents and adults with cystic fibrosis in the UK: A cross-sectional study

Background The International Depression/anxiety Epidemiological Study (TIDES) in the UK aimed: (i) to establish the prevalence of anxiety and depression amongst people with CF compared to a normative sample; (ii) to establish the association between mood, demographic and clinical variables; and (iii) to provide guidance for specialist-referral decision-making. Methods Patients (≥ 12 years) completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). CF-HADS scores, expressed as percentiles, were compared with a normative sample. Multiple-regression analysis explored associations between demographic, clinical and mood variables. Results Thirty-nine CF centres recruited 2065 patients. Adults with CF were similar in terms of anxiety and depression to the general population. Adolescents with CF were less anxious and depressed. For adult patients, older age, unemployment for health reasons and poor lung function were associated with disordered mood. Gender-specific CF-percentile scores were calculated. Conclusion Surveillance, with attention to gender and risk factors is advocated. This work provides unique benchmark scores to aid referral decision-making

The effect of time delay in plant-pathogen interactions with host demography

Background: There is a need for valid and comprehensive measures of parental influence on children's energy balance-related behaviours (EBRB). Such measures should be based on a theoretical framework, acknowledging the dynamic and complex nature of interactions occurring within a family. The aim of the Family & Dietary habits (F&D) project was to develop a conceptual framework identifying important and changeable family processes influencing dietary behaviours of 13-15 year olds. A second aim was to develop valid and reliable questionnaires for adolescents and their parents (both mothers and fathers) measuring these processes. Methods: A stepwise approach was used; (1) preparation of scope and structure, (2) development of the F&D questionnaires, (3) the conducting of pilot studies and (4) the conducting of validation studies (assessing internal reliability, test-retest reliability and confirmatory factor analysis) using data from a cross-sectional study. Results: The conceptual framework includes psychosocial concepts such as family functioning, cohesion, conflicts, communication, work-family stress, parental practices and parental style. The physical characteristics of the home environment include accessibility and availability of different food items, while family meals are the sociocultural setting included. Individual characteristics measured are dietary intake (vegetables and sugar-sweetened beverages) and adolescents' impulsivity. The F&D questionnaires developed were tested in a test-retest (54 adolescents and 44 of their parents) and in a cross-sectional survey including 440 adolescents (13-15 year olds), 242 mothers and 155 fathers. The samples appear to be relatively representative for Norwegian adolescents and parents. For adolescents, mothers and fathers, the test-retest reliability of the dietary intake, frequencies of (family) meals, work-family stress and communication variables was satisfactory (ICC: 0.53-0.99). Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-Brief (BIS-Brief) was included, assessing adolescent's impulsivity. The internal reliability (Cronbach's alphas: 0.77/0.82) and test-retest reliability values (ICC: 0.74/0.77) of BIS-Brief were good. Conclusions: The conceptual framework developed may be a useful tool in guiding measurement and assessment of the home food environment and family processes related to adolescents' dietary habits, in particular and for EBRBs more generally. The results support the use of the F&D questionnaires as psychometrically sound tools to assess family characteristics and adolescent's impulsivity

Regulation of gene expression is associated with tolerance of the Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis to CO2-acidified sea water

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