The 2009 HMDA data: the mortgage market in a time of low interest rates and economic distress

Mortgages ; Home Mortgage Disclosure Act

The 2008 HMDA data: the mortgage market during a turbulent year

The data that mortgage lending institutions reported for 2008 under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act of 1975 (HMDA) reflect the ongoing difficulties in the housing and mortgage markets. This article presents a number of key findings from a review of the 2008 HMDA data. In particular, it documents a reduction in lending activity that was experienced by all groups of borrowers, highlights the Federal Housing Administration's greatly expanded role in the mortgage market, and examines how atypical changes in the interest rate environment affected the incidence of reported higher-priced lending in 2008 relative to earlier years.Mortgages ; Home Mortgage Disclosure Act

Federal mandates and mortgage supply : regression discontinuity analyses of the community reinvestment and GSE Acts.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2008.Includes bibliographical references.In this dissertation, I provide evidence of the causal impact on mortgage supply of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and the "Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) Act", laws requiring banks and the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), respectively, to help improve credit access for low-income households and neighborhoods. While financial markets evolved rapidly since the early 1990's, I use discontinuities in the laws' eligibility rules to identify their effects. To implement the analyses, I use a census of mortgage applications collected under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. Overall, these programs appear to have had limited impact. I first analyze CRA's effect on mortgage lending in targeted neighborhoods: census tracts with a median family income (MFI) under 80% of MSA MFI. The regression discontinuity (RD) estimates suggest an overall credit supply shift of at least $6 billion ($2007) from 1994 and 2002 in targeted neighborhoods. In addition to CRA's direct effect on bank lending, I also find that unregulated institutions lend more in targeted tracts ("crowd-in"). Further analysis suggests that information spillovers from increased bank lending helps generate crowd-in. In Chapter 2, I examine CRA's effect on home purchase mortgage lending to households with income under 80% of the MSA MFI. In both Chapters 1 and 2, I find CRA's impact is concentrated in the largest MSAs, where enforcement is most intense. The RD estimates indicate that CRA caused a 6% increase in large MSA bank home purchase lending at the cutoff.(cont.) Unlike in Chapter 1, there is no theoretical basis for crowd-in and none is found. Nor do I find that banks crowd-out unregulated institutions. Finally, I measure the impact of one of the three goals established under the GSE Act. Under this goal the GSEs target census tracts with MFI under 90% of MSA MFI. The RD estimates suggest this goal led to a 3-4% increase in GSE purchases, and increased GSE-eligible originations by 2-3% at the cutoff. Unlike previous research, I find no evidence that the GSEs crowd-out FHA and subprime loans. The results imply a lower bound of the goal's impact of $2.4 billion between 1997 and 2002.Ph.D

Payday Loan Choices and Consequences

High-cost consumer credit has proliferated in the past two decades, raising regulatory scrutiny. We match administrative data from a payday lender with nationally representative credit bureau files to examine the choices of payday loan applicants and assess whether payday loans help or harm borrowers. We find consumers apply for payday loans when they have limited access to mainstream credit. In addition, the weakness of payday applicants’ credit histories is severe and longstanding. Based on regression discontinuity estimates, we show that the effects of payday borrowing on credit scores and other measures of financial well-being are close to zero. We test the robustness of these null effects to many factors, including features of the local market structure

Eustachian tube dysfunction: A diagnostic accuracy study and proposed diagnostic pathway.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Eustachian tube dysfunction (ETD) is a commonly diagnosed disorder of Eustachian tube opening and closure, which may be associated with severe symptoms and middle ear disease. Currently the diagnosis of obstructive and patulous forms of ETD is primarily based on non-specific symptoms or examination findings, rather than measurement of the underlying function of the Eustachian tube. This has proved problematic when selecting patients for treatment, and when designing trial inclusion criteria and outcomes. This study aims to determine the correlation and diagnostic value of various tests of ET opening and patient reported outcome measures (PROMs), in order to generate a recommended diagnostic pathway for ETD. METHODS: Index tests included two PROMs and 14 tests of ET opening (nine for obstructive, five for patulous ETD). In the absence of an accepted reference standard two methods were adopted to establish index test accuracy: expert panel diagnosis and latent class analysis. Index test results were assessed with Pearson correlation and principle component analysis, and test accuracy was determined. Logistic regression models assessed the predictive value of grouped test results. RESULTS: The expert panel diagnosis and PROMs results correlated with each other, but not with ET function measured by tests of ET opening. All index tests were found to be feasible in clinic, and acceptable to patients. PROMs had very poor specificity, and no diagnostic value. Combining the results of tests of ET function appeared beneficial. The latent class model suggested tympanometry, sonotubometry and tubomanometry have the best diagnostic performance for obstructive ETD, and these are included in a proposed diagnostic pathway. CONCLUSIONS: ETD should be diagnosed on the basis of clinical assessment and tests of ET opening, as PROMs have no diagnostic value. Currently diagnostic uncertainty exists for some patients who appear to have intermittent ETD clinically, but have negative index test results.M.S. received funding from the Cambridge Hearing Trus

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Eustachian tube dysfunction: A diagnostic accuracy study and proposed diagnostic pathway

<div><p>Background and aims</p><p>Eustachian tube dysfunction (ETD) is a commonly diagnosed disorder of Eustachian tube opening and closure, which may be associated with severe symptoms and middle ear disease. Currently the diagnosis of obstructive and patulous forms of ETD is primarily based on non-specific symptoms or examination findings, rather than measurement of the underlying function of the Eustachian tube. This has proved problematic when selecting patients for treatment, and when designing trial inclusion criteria and outcomes. This study aims to determine the correlation and diagnostic value of various tests of ET opening and patient reported outcome measures (PROMs), in order to generate a recommended diagnostic pathway for ETD.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Index tests included two PROMs and 14 tests of ET opening (nine for obstructive, five for patulous ETD). In the absence of an accepted reference standard two methods were adopted to establish index test accuracy: expert panel diagnosis and latent class analysis. Index test results were assessed with Pearson correlation and principle component analysis, and test accuracy was determined. Logistic regression models assessed the predictive value of grouped test results.</p><p>Results</p><p>The expert panel diagnosis and PROMs results correlated with each other, but not with ET function measured by tests of ET opening. All index tests were found to be feasible in clinic, and acceptable to patients. PROMs had very poor specificity, and no diagnostic value. Combining the results of tests of ET function appeared beneficial. The latent class model suggested tympanometry, sonotubometry and tubomanometry have the best diagnostic performance for obstructive ETD, and these are included in a proposed diagnostic pathway.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>ETD should be diagnosed on the basis of clinical assessment and tests of ET opening, as PROMs have no diagnostic value. Currently diagnostic uncertainty exists for some patients who appear to have intermittent ETD clinically, but have negative index test results.</p></div

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation