Lipidomic Risk Score to Enhance Cardiovascular Risk Stratification for Primary Prevention

Background Accurate risk stratification is vital for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, traditional tools such as the Framingham Risk Score(FRS) may underperform within the diverse intermediate-risk group, which includes individuals requiring distinct management strategies. Objectives This study aimed to develop a lipidomic-enhanced risk score (LRS), specifically targeting risk prediction and reclassification within the intermediate group, benchmarked against the FRS. Methods The LRS was developed via a machine learning workflow using ridge regression on the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab; n = 10,339). It was externally validated with the Busselton Health Study (n = 4,492), and its predictive utility for coronary arterycalcium scoring (CACS)–based outcomes was independently validated in the BioHEART cohort (n = 994). Results LRS significantly improved discrimination metrics for the intermediate-risk group in both AusDiab and Busselton Health Study cohorts (all P \u3c 0.001), increasing the area under the curve for CVD events by 0.114 (95% CI: 0.1123-0.1157) and 0.077 (95% CI: 0.0755-0.0785), with a net reclassification improvement of 0.36 (95% CI: 0.21-0.51) and 0.33 (95% CI: 0.15-0.49), respectively. For CACS-based outcomes in BioHEART, LRS achieved a significant area under the curve improvement of 0.02 over the FRS (0.76 vs 0.74; P\u3c 1.0 × 10-5). A simplified, clinically applicable version of LRS was also created that had comparable performance to the original LRS. Conclusions LRS, augmenting the FRS, presents potential to improve intermediate-risk stratification and to predict atherosclerotic markers using a simple blood test, suitable for clinical application. This could facilitate the triage of individuals for noninvasive imaging such as CACS, fostering precision medicine in CVD prevention and management

Imputation of plasma lipid species to facilitate integration of lipidomic datasets

Recent advancements in plasma lipidomic profiling methodology have significantly increased specificity and accuracy of lipid measurements. This evolution, driven by improved chromatographic and mass spectrometric resolution of newer platforms, has made it challenging to align datasets created at different times, or on different platforms. Here we present a framework for harmonising such plasma lipidomic datasets with different levels of granularity in their lipid measurements. Our method utilises elastic-net prediction models, constructed from high-resolution lipidomics reference datasets, to predict unmeasured lipid species in lower-resolution studies. The approach involves (1) constructing composite lipid measures in the reference dataset that map to less resolved lipids in the target dataset, (2) addressing discrepancies between aligned lipid species, (3) generating prediction models, (4) assessing their transferability into the targe dataset, and (5) evaluating their prediction accuracy. To demonstrate our approach, we used the AusDiab population-based cohort (747 lipid species) as the reference to impute unmeasured lipid species into the LIPID study (342 lipid species). Furthermore, we compared measured and imputed lipids in terms of parameter estimation and predictive performance, and validated imputations in an independent study. Our method for harmonising plasma lipidomic datasets will facilitate model validation and data integration efforts

A lipidomic based metabolic age score captures cardiometabolic risk independent of chronological age

Background Metabolic ageing biomarkers may capture the age-related shifts in metabolism, offering a precise representation of an individual’s overall metabolic health. Methods Utilising comprehensive lipidomic datasets from two large independent population cohorts in Australia (n = 14,833, including 6630 males, 8203 females), we employed different machine learning models, to predict age, and calculated metabolic age scores (mAge). Furthermore, we defined the difference between mAge and age, termed mAgeΔ, which allow us to identify individuals sharing similar age but differing in their metabolic health status. Findings Upon stratification of the population into quintiles by mAgeΔ, we observed that participants in the top quintile group (Q5) were more likely to have cardiovascular disease (OR = 2.13, 95% CI = 1.62–2.83), had a 2.01-fold increased risk of 12-year incident cardiovascular events (HR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.45–2.57), and a 1.56-fold increased risk of 17-year all-cause mortality (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.34–1.79), relative to the individuals in the bottom quintile group (Q1). Survival analysis further revealed that men in the Q5 group faced the challenge of reaching a median survival rate due to cardiovascular events more than six years earlier and reaching a median survival rate due to all-cause mortality more than four years earlier than men in the Q1 group. Interpretation Our findings demonstrate that the mAge score captures age-related metabolic changes, predicts health outcomes, and has the potential to identify individuals at increased risk of metabolic diseases

Metabolic phenotyping of BMI to characterize cardiometabolic risk: evidence from large population-based cohorts

Obesity is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. However, a substantial proportion of patients with these conditions have a seemingly normal body mass index (BMI). Conversely, not all obese individuals present with metabolic disorders giving rise to the concept of “metabolically healthy obese”. We use lipidomic-based models for BMI to calculate a metabolic BMI score (mBMI) as a measure of metabolic dysregulation associated with obesity. Using the difference between mBMI and BMI (mBMIΔ), we identify individuals with a similar BMI but differing in their metabolic health and disease risk profiles. Exercise and diet associate with mBMIΔ suggesting the ability to modify mBMI with lifestyle intervention. Our findings show that, the mBMI score captures information on metabolic dysregulation that is independent of the measured BMI and so provides an opportunity to assess metabolic health to identify “at risk” individuals for targeted intervention and monitoring

Development and validation of a plasmalogen score as an independent modifiable marker of metabolic health: population based observational studies and a placebo-controlled cross-over study

Background Decreased levels of circulating ethanolamine plasmalogens [PE(P)], and a concurrent increase in phosphatidylethanolamine (PE) are consistently reported in various cardiometabolic conditions. Here we devised, a plasmalogen score (Pls Score) that mirrors a metabolic signal that encompasses the levels of PE(P) and PE and captures the natural variation in circulating plasmalogens and perturbations in their metabolism associated with disease, diet, and lifestyle. Methods We utilised, plasma lipidomes from the Australian Obesity, Diabetes and Lifestyle study (AusDiab; n = 10,339, 55% women) a nationwide cohort, to devise the Pls Score and validated this in the Busselton Health Study (BHS; n = 4,492, 56% women, serum lipidome) and in a placebo-controlled crossover trial involving Shark Liver Oil (SLO) supplementation (n = 10, 100% men). We examined the association of the Pls Score with cardiometabolic risk factors, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality (over 17 years). Findings In a model, adjusted for age, sex and BMI, individuals in the top quintile of the Pls Score (Q5) relative to Q1 had an OR of 0.31 (95% CI 0.21–0.43), 0.39 (95% CI 0.25–0.61) and 0.42 (95% CI 0.30–0.57) for prevalent T2DM, incident T2DM and prevalent cardiovascular disease respectively, and a 34% lower mortality risk (HR = 0.66; 95% CI 0.56–0.78). Significant associations between diet and lifestyle habits and Pls Score exist and these were validated through dietary supplementation of SLO that resulted in a marked change in the Pls Score. Interpretation The Pls Score as a measure that captures the natural variation in circulating plasmalogens, was not only inversely related to cardiometabolic risk and all-cause mortality but also associate with diet and lifestyle. Our results support the potential utility of the Pls Score as a biomarker for metabolic health and its responsiveness to dietary interventions. Further research is warranted to explore the underlying mechanisms and optimise the practical implementation of the Pls Score in clinical and population settings. Funding National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC grant 233200), National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (Project grant APP1101320), Health Promotion Foundation of Western Australia, and National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia Senior Research Fellowship (#1042095)

Statin effects on the lipidome: Predicting statin usage and implications for cardiovascular risk prediction

Statin therapy is a highly successful and cost-effective strategy for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Adjusting for statin usage is crucial when exploring the association of the lipidome with CVD to avoid erroneous conclusions. However, practical challenges arise in real-world scenarios due to the frequent absence of statin usage information. To address this limitation, we demonstrate that statin usage can be accurately predicted using lipidomic data. Using three large population datasets and a longitudinal clinical study, we show that lipidomic-based statin prediction models exhibit high prediction accuracy in external validation. Furthermore, we introduce a re-weighted model, designed to overcome a ubiquitous limitation of prediction models, namely the need for predictor alignment between training and target data. We demonstrated that the re-weighted models achieved comparable prediction accuracy to ad hoc models which use the aligned predictor between training and target data. This innovation holds promise for significantly enhancing the transferability of statin prediction and other \u27omics prediction models, especially in situations where predictor alignment is incomplete. Our statin prediction model now allows for the inclusion of statin usage in lipidomic analyses of cohorts even where statin use is not available, improving the interpretability of the resulting analyses

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential.Peer reviewe

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Burden of obesity in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

Mokdad AH, El Bcheraoui C, Afshin A, et al. Burden of obesity in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH. 2018;63(Suppl. 1):165-176.We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study results to explore the burden of high body mass index (BMI) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). We estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children (2-19 years) and adults (20 years) in 1980 and 2015. The burden of disease related to high BMI was calculated using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. The prevalence of obesity increased for adults from 15.1% (95% UI 13.4-16.9) in 1980 to 20.7% (95% UI 18.8-22.8) in 2015. It increased from 4.1% (95% UI 2.9-5.5) to 4.9% (95% UI 3.6-6.4) for the same period among children. In 2015, there were 417,115 deaths and 14,448,548 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high BMI in EMR, which constitute about 10 and 6.3% of total deaths and DALYs, respectively, for all ages. This is the first study to estimate trends in obesity burden for the EMR from 1980 to 2015. We call for EMR countries to invest more resources in prevention and health promotion efforts to reduce this burden