3,106 research outputs found
Measuring coherence of computer-assisted likelihood ratio methods
This is the authorâs version of a work that was accepted for publication in Forensic Science International. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Forensic Science International, 249 (2015): 123 â 132 DOI:10.1016/j.forsciint.2015.01.033Measuring the performance of forensic evaluation methods that compute likelihood ratios
(LRs) is relevant for both the development and the validation of such methods. A framework
of performance characteristics categorized as primary and secondary is introduced in this
study to help achieve such development and validation. Ground-truth labelled fingerprint data
is used to assess the performance of an example likelihood ratio method in terms of those
performance characteristics. Discrimination, calibration, and especially the coherence of this
LR method are assessed as a function of the quantity and quality of the trace fingerprint data.
Assessment of the coherence revealed a weakness of the comparison algorithm in the
computer-assisted likelihood ratio method used.This research was conducted in the scope of the BBfor2 â European Commission Marie
Curie Initial Training Network (FP7-PEOPLE-ITN-2008 under Grant Agreement 238803) at
the Netherlands Forensic Institute, and in collaboration with the ATVS Biometric
Recognition Group at the Universidad Autonoma de Madrid and the National Police Services
Agency of the Netherlands
A response to âLikelihood ratio as weight of evidence: a closer lookâ by Lund and Iyer
Recently, Lund and Iyer (L&I) raised an argument regarding the use of likelihood ratios in court. In our view, their argument is based on a lack of understanding of the paradigm. L&I argue that the decision maker should not accept the expertâs likelihood ratio without further consideration. This is agreed by all parties. In normal practice, there is often considerable and proper exploration in court of the basis for any probabilistic statement. We conclude that L&I argue against a practice that does not exist and which no one advocates. Further we conclude that the most informative summary of evidential weight is the likelihood ratio. We state that this is the summary that should be presented to a court in every scientific assessment of evidential weight with supporting information about how it was constructed and on what it was based
Measurement of Charge Asymmetries in Charmless Hadronic in B Meson Decays
We search for CP-violating asymmetries (Acp) in the B meson decays to K+-
pi-+, K+- pi0, Ks pi+-, K+- eta', and omega pi+-. Using 9.66 million
Upsilon(4S) decays collected with the CLEO detector, the statistical precision
on Acp is in the range of \pm 0.12 to \pm 0.25 depending on decay mode. While
CP-violating asymmetries of up to \pm 0.5 are possible within the Standard
Model, the measured asymmetries are consistent with zero in all five decay
modes studied.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure
Measurement of the Branching Fraction for B- --> D0 K*-
We present a measurement of the branching fraction for the decay B- --> D0
K*- using a sample of approximately 86 million BBbar pairs collected by the
BaBar detector from e+e- collisions near the Y(4S) resonance. The D0 is
detected through its decays to K- pi+, K- pi+ pi0 and K- pi+ pi- pi+, and the
K*- through its decay to K0S pi-. We measure the branching fraction to be
B.F.(B- --> D0 K*-)= (6.3 +/- 0.7(stat.) +/- 0.5(syst.)) x 10^{-4}.Comment: 7 pages, 1 postscript figure, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid
Communications
Role of Adjuvant Multimodality Therapy After Curative-Intent Resection of Ampullary Carcinoma
Importance: Ampullary adenocarcinoma is a rare malignant neoplasm that arises within the duodenal ampullary complex. The role of adjuvant therapy (AT) in the treatment of ampullary adenocarcinoma has not been clearly defined.
Objective: To determine if long-term survival after curative-intent resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma may be improved by selection of patients for AT directed by histologic subtype.
Design, setting, and participants: This multinational, retrospective cohort study was conducted at 12 institutions from April 1, 2000, to July 31, 2017, among 357 patients with resected, nonmetastatic ampullary adenocarcinoma receiving surgery alone or AT. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify covariates associated with overall survival. The surgery alone and AT cohorts were matched 1:1 by propensity scores based on the likelihood of receiving AT or by survival hazard from Cox modeling. Overall survival was compared with Kaplan-Meier estimates.
Exposures: Adjuvant chemotherapy (fluorouracil- or gemcitabine-based) with or without radiotherapy.
Main outcomes and measures: Overall survival.
Results: A total of 357 patients (156 women and 201 men; median age, 65.8 years [interquartile range, 58-74 years]) underwent curative-intent resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma. Patients with intestinal subtype had a longer median overall survival compared with those with pancreatobiliary subtype (77 vs 54 months; P = .05). Histologic subtype was not associated with AT administration (intestinal, 52.9% [101 of 191]; and pancreatobiliary, 59.5% [78 of 131]; P = .24). Patients with pancreatobiliary histologic subtype most commonly received gemcitabine-based regimens (71.0% [22 of 31]) or combinations of gemcitabine and fluorouracil (12.9% [4 of 31]), whereas treatment of those with intestinal histologic subtype was more varied (fluorouracil, 50.0% [17 of 34]; gemcitabine, 44.1% [15 of 34]; P = .01). In the propensity score-matched cohort, AT was not associated with a survival benefit for either histologic subtype (intestinal: hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.67-2.16; P = .53; pancreatobiliary: hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 0.66-2.76; P = .41).
Conclusions and relevance: Adjuvant therapy was more frequently used in patients with poor prognostic factors but was not associated with demonstrable improvements in survival, regardless of tumor histologic subtype. The value of a multimodality regimen remains poorly defined
A Study of Time-Dependent CP-Violating Asymmetries and Flavor Oscillations in Neutral B Decays at the Upsilon(4S)
We present a measurement of time-dependent CP-violating asymmetries in
neutral B meson decays collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II
asymmetric-energy B Factory at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center. The data
sample consists of 29.7 recorded at the
resonance and 3.9 off-resonance. One of the neutral B mesons,
which are produced in pairs at the , is fully reconstructed in
the CP decay modes , , , () and , or in flavor-eigenstate
modes involving and (). The flavor of the other neutral B meson is tagged at the time of
its decay, mainly with the charge of identified leptons and kaons. The proper
time elapsed between the decays is determined by measuring the distance between
the decay vertices. A maximum-likelihood fit to this flavor eigenstate sample
finds . The value of the asymmetry amplitude is determined from
a simultaneous maximum-likelihood fit to the time-difference distribution of
the flavor-eigenstate sample and about 642 tagged decays in the
CP-eigenstate modes. We find , demonstrating that CP violation exists in the neutral B meson
system. (abridged)Comment: 58 pages, 35 figures, submitted to Physical Review
Energy Flow in the Hadronic Final State of Diffractive and Non-Diffractive Deep-Inelastic Scattering at HERA
An investigation of the hadronic final state in diffractive and
non--diffractive deep--inelastic electron--proton scattering at HERA is
presented, where diffractive data are selected experimentally by demanding a
large gap in pseudo --rapidity around the proton remnant direction. The
transverse energy flow in the hadronic final state is evaluated using a set of
estimators which quantify topological properties. Using available Monte Carlo
QCD calculations, it is demonstrated that the final state in diffractive DIS
exhibits the features expected if the interaction is interpreted as the
scattering of an electron off a current quark with associated effects of
perturbative QCD. A model in which deep--inelastic diffraction is taken to be
the exchange of a pomeron with partonic structure is found to reproduce the
measurements well. Models for deep--inelastic scattering, in which a
sizeable diffractive contribution is present because of non--perturbative
effects in the production of the hadronic final state, reproduce the general
tendencies of the data but in all give a worse description.Comment: 22 pages, latex, 6 Figures appended as uuencoded fil
Study of e+e- --> pi+ pi- pi0 process using initial state radiation with BABAR
The process e+e- --> pi+ pi- pi0 gamma has been studied at a center-of-mass
energy near the Y(4S) resonance using a 89.3 fb-1 data sample collected with
the BaBar detector at the PEP-II collider. From the measured 3pi mass spectrum
we have obtained the products of branching fractions for the omega and phi
mesons, B(omega --> e+e-)B(omega --> 3pi)=(6.70 +/- 0.06 +/- 0.27)10-5 and
B(phi --> e+e-)B(phi --> 3pi)=(4.30 +/- 0.08 +/- 0.21)10-5, and evaluated the
e+e- --> pi+ pi- pi0 cross section for the e+e- center-of-mass energy range
1.05 to 3.00 GeV. About 900 e+e- --> J/psi gamma --> pi+ pi- pi0 gamma events
have been selected and the branching fraction B(J/psi --> pi+ pi- pi0)=(2.18
+/- 0.19)% has been measured.Comment: 21 pages, 37 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev.
Measurement of the quasi-elastic axial vector mass in neutrino-oxygen interactions
The weak nucleon axial-vector form factor for quasi-elastic interactions is
determined using neutrino interaction data from the K2K Scintillating Fiber
detector in the neutrino beam at KEK. More than 12,000 events are analyzed, of
which half are charged-current quasi-elastic interactions nu-mu n to mu- p
occurring primarily in oxygen nuclei. We use a relativistic Fermi gas model for
oxygen and assume the form factor is approximately a dipole with one parameter,
the axial vector mass M_A, and fit to the shape of the distribution of the
square of the momentum transfer from the nucleon to the nucleus. Our best fit
result for M_A = 1.20 \pm 0.12 GeV. Furthermore, this analysis includes updated
vector form factors from recent electron scattering experiments and a
discussion of the effects of the nucleon momentum on the shape of the fitted
distributions.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, 6 table
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