Computer model calibration with large non-stationary spatial outputs: application to the calibration of a climate model

Bayesian calibration of computer models tunes unknown input parameters by comparing outputs with observations. For model outputs that are distributed over space, this becomes computationally expensive because of the output size. To overcome this challenge, we employ a basis representation of the model outputs and observations: we match these decompositions to carry out the calibration efficiently. In the second step, we incorporate the non-stationary behaviour, in terms of spatial variations of both variance and correlations, in the calibration. We insert two integrated nested Laplace approximation-stochastic partial differential equation parameters into the calibration. A synthetic example and a climate model illustration highlight the benefits of our approach

Interventions for treating anxiety after stroke

Background: Approximately 20% of stroke patients experience anxiety at some point after stroke. Objectives: To determine if any treatment for anxiety after stroke decreases the proportion of patients with anxiety disorders or symptoms, and to determine the effect of treatment on quality of life, disability, depression, social participation, risk of death or caregiver burden. Search methods: We searched the trials register of the Cochrane Stroke Group (October 2010), CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library 2010, Issue 4), MEDLINE (1950 to October 2010), EMBASE (1947 to October 2010), PsycINFO (1806 to October 2010), Allied and Complementary Medicine database (AMED) (1985 to October 2010), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health (CINAHL) (1982 to October 2010), Proquest Digital Dissertations (1861 to October 2010), and Psychological Database for Brain Impairment Treatment Efficacy (PsycBITE) (2004 to October 2010). In an effort to identify further published, unpublished and ongoing trials, we searched trial registries and major international stroke conference proceedings, scanned reference lists, and contacted select individuals known to the review team who are actively involved in psychological aspects of stroke research, and the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry. Selection criteria: Two review authors independently screened and selected titles and abstracts for inclusion in the review. Randomised trials of any intervention in patients with stroke where the treatment of anxiety was an outcome were eligible. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently extracted data for analysis. We performed a narrative review. A meta-analysis was planned but not carried out as studies were not of sufficient quality to warrant doing so. Main results: We included two trials (three interventions) involving 175 participants with co-morbid anxiety and depression in the review. Both trials used the Hamilton Anxiety Scale (HAM-A) to assess anxiety, and neither included a placebo control group. One trial randomised 81 patients to paroxetine, paroxetine plus psychotherapy or standard care. Mean level of anxiety severity scores were 58% and 71% lower in the paroxetine, and paroxetine plus psychotherapy groups respectively compared with those in standard care at follow-up (P < 0.01). The second trial randomised 94 stroke patients, also with co-morbid anxiety and depression, to receive buspirone hydrochloride or standard care. At follow-up, the mean level of anxiety was significantly lower for those receiving buspirone relative to controls (P < 0.01). Half of the participants receiving paroxetine experienced adverse events that included nausea, vomiting or dizziness; however, only 14% of those receiving buspirone experienced nausea or palpitations. No information was provided about the duration of symptoms associated with adverse events. Authors' conclusions: There is insufficient evidence to guide the treatment of anxiety after stroke. The data available suggest that pharmaceutical therapy (paroxetine and buspirone) may be effective in reducing anxiety symptoms in stroke patients with co-morbid anxiety and depression. No information was available for stroke patients with anxiety only. Randomised placebo controlled trials are needed

Resolving Gas Dynamics in the Circumnuclear Region of a Disk Galaxy in a Cosmological Simulation

Using a hydrodynamic adaptive mesh refinement code, we simulate the growth and evolution of a galaxy, which could potentially host a supermassive black hole, within a cosmological volume. Reaching a dynamical range in excess of 10 million, the simulation follows the evolution of the gas structure from super-galactic scales all the way down to the outer edge of the accretion disk. Here, we focus on global instabilities in the self-gravitating, cold, turbulence-supported, molecular gas disk at the center of the model galaxy, which provide a natural mechanism for angular momentum transport down to sub-pc scales. The gas density profile follows a power-law scaling as r^-8/3, consistent with an analytic description of turbulence in a quasi-stationary circumnuclear disk. We analyze the properties of the disk which contribute to the instabilities, and investigate the significance of instability for the galaxy's evolution and the growth of a supermassive black hole at the center.Comment: 16 pages (includes appendix), submitted to ApJ. Figures here are at low resolution; for higher resolution version, download http://casa.colorado.edu/~levinerd/ms.pd

Guided self-help concreteness training as an intervention for major depression in primary care: a Phase II randomized controlled trial

addresses: Mood Disorders Centre, University of Exeter, UK. [email protected]: PMCID: PMC3359637Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011 The online version of this article is published within an Open Access environment subject to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence . The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0033291711002480The development of widely accessible, effective psychological interventions for depression is a priority. This randomized trial provides the first controlled data on an innovative cognitive bias modification (CBM) training guided self-help intervention for depression

Pulsar rotation measures and the magnetic structure of our Galaxy

We have obtained 63 rotation measures (RMs) from polarization observations of southern pulsars, of which 54 are new measurements and 3 are varied from previous values. The new pulsar RM data at high Galactic latitudes are mostly consistent with the antisymmetric RM distribution found previously. For the Galactic disc, evidence for a field reversal near the Perseus arm, and possibly another beyond it, is presented. Inside the Solar Circle, in addition to the two known field reversals in or near the Carina-Sagittartus arm and the Crux-Scutum arm, a further reversal in the Norma arm is tentatively identified. These reversals, together with the pitch angle derived from pulsar RM and stellar polarization distributions, are consistent with bisymmetric spiral (BSS) models for the large-scale magnetic field structure in the disc of our Galaxy. However, discrimination between models is complicated by the presence of smaller-scale irregularities in the magnetic field, as well as uncertainties in the theoretical modelling.Comment: 10pages; 8 figures; Accepted by MNRA

Building solids inside nano-space: from confined amorphous through confined solvate to confined ‘metastable’ polymorph

The nanocrystallisation of complex molecules inside mesoporous hosts and control over the resulting structure is a significant challenge. To date the largest organic molecule crystallised inside the nano-pores is a known pharmaceutical intermediate – ROY (259.3 g mol1). In this work we demonstrate smart manipulation of the phase of a larger confined pharmaceutical – indomethacin (IMC, 357.8 g mol1), a substance with known conformational flexibility and complex polymorphic behaviour. We show the detailed structural analysis and the control of solid state transformations of encapsulated molecules inside the pores of mesoscopic cellular foam (MCF, pore size ca. 29 nm) and controlled pore glass (CPG, pore size ca. 55 nm). Starting from confined amorphous IMC we drive crystallisation into a confined methanol solvate, which upon vacuum drying leads to the stabilised rare form V of IMC inside the MCF host. In contrast to the pure form, encapsulated form V does not transform into a more stable polymorph upon heating. The size of the constraining pores and the drug concentration within the pores determine whether the amorphous state of the drug is stabilised or it recrystallises into confined nanocrystals. The work presents, in a critical manner, an application of complementary techniques (DSC, PXRD, solid-state NMR, N2 adsorption) to confirm unambiguously the phase transitions under confinement and offers a comprehensive strategy towards the formation and control of nano-crystalline encapsulated organic solids

Observational constraints on models for the interstellar magnetic field in the Galactic disk

Our purpose is to place firm observational constraints on the three most widely used theoretical models for the spatial configuration of the large-scale interstellar magnetic field in the Galactic disk, namely, the ring, the axisymmetric and the bisymmetric field models. We use the rotation measures (RMs) of low-latitude Galactic pulsars and combine them with their dispersion measures and estimated distances to map out the line-of-sight component of the interstellar magnetic field in the near half of the Galactic disk. We then fit our map of the line-of-sight field to the three aforementioned theoretical field models and discuss the acceptability of each fit, in order to determine whether the considered field model is allowed by the pulsar data or not. Strictly speaking, we find that all three field models are ruled out by the pulsar data. Furthermore, none of them appears to perform significantly better than the others. From this we conclude that the large-scale interstellar magnetic field in the Galactic disk has a more complex pattern than just circular, axisymmetric or bisymmetric.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure

Correlates of Premenstrual Dysphoria in Help-seeking Women

Comparisons were made between the premenstrual changes reported by nontreatment-seekers (NTS) (n = 32) and those of treatment-seekers (TS) (n = 52). The Premenstrual Assessment Form Luteal Phase and Follicular Phase versions were completed and the Beck Depression Inventory, the Automatic Thoughts Questionnaire and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory were completed at both the luteal and follicular phases. Prospective daily ratings were made for two treatment cycles on the Daily Ratings Form and TS were screened for a mood-disorder history. Using the commonly cited 30% decrease in dysphoric levels from the pre- to postmenstrual phases as the criterion of prospective confirmation, women with prospectively confirmed dysphoria (PMD +) were not significantly more symptomatic than those without prospective dysphoric confirmation (PMD -). However, TS were more symptomatic than NTS on measures of depression, anxiety and frequency of negative automatic thoughts but not on mood behaviour and physical changes reflected in the PAF scales. No demographic differences were found between TS and NTS. Results did not support the issue of requiring `confirmation' of self-reports within a help-seeking group or the use of the 30% criterion in particular. Findings further suggest that the 95-item PAF may be inadequate in differentiating TS from others

Sensitivity and specificity of the Major Depression Inventory in outpatients

.001). Subjects with major depressive disorder (MDD) had a significantly higher MDI score than subjects with anxiety disorders (but no MDD), dysthymias, bipolar, psychotic, other neurotic disorders, and subjects with relational problems. In ROC analysis we found that the area under the curve was 0.68 for the MDI. A good cut-off point for the MDI seems to be 26, with a sensitivity of 0.66, and a specificity of 0.63. The indication of the presence of MDD based on the MDI had a moderate agreement with the diagnosis made by a psychiatrist (kappa: 0.26). Conclusion The MDI is an attractive, brief depression inventory, which seems to be a reliable tool for assessing depression in psychiatric outpatients