A minimal model of fire-vegetation feedbacks and disturbance stochasticity generates alternative stable states in grassland–shrubland–woodland systems

Altered disturbance regimes in the context of global change are likely to have profound consequences for ecosystems. Interactions between fire and vegetation are of particular interest, as fire is a major driver of vegetation change, and vegetation properties (e.g., amount, flammability) alter fire regimes. Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) constitute a paradigmatic example of temperate fire-prone vegetation. Although these ecosystems may be heavily impacted by global change, disturbance regime shifts and the implications of fire-vegetation feedbacks in the dynamics of such biomes are still poorly characterized. We developed a minimal modeling framework incorporating key aspects of fire ecology and successional processes to evaluate the relative influence of extrinsic and intrinsic factors on disturbance and vegetation dynamics in systems composed of grassland, shrubland, and woodland mosaics, which characterize many MTEs. In this theoretical investigation, we performed extensive simulations representing different background rates of vegetation succession and disturbance regime (fire frequency and severity) processes that reflect a broad range of MTE environmental conditions. Varying fire-vegetation feedbacks can lead to different critical points in underlying processes of disturbance and sudden shifts in the vegetation state of grassland–shrubland–woodland systems, despite gradual changes in ecosystem drivers as defined by the environment. Vegetation flammability and disturbance stochasticity effectively modify system behavior, determining its heterogeneity and the existence of alternative stable states in MTEs. Small variations in system flammability and fire recurrence induced by climate or vegetation changes may trigger sudden shifts in the state of such ecosystems. The existence of threshold dynamics, alternative stable states, and contrasting system responses to environmental change has broad implications for MTE management.Funding for this work was provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation through the Berkeley Initiative in Global Change Biology

Disentangling the formation of contrasting tree line physiognomies combining model selection and Bayesian parameterization for simulation models.

Alpine tree-line ecotones are characterized by marked changes at small spatial scales that may result in a variety of physiognomies. A set of alternative individual-based models was tested with data from four contrasting Pinus uncinata ecotones in the central Spanish Pyrenees to reveal the minimal subset of processes required for tree-line formation. A Bayesian approach combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods was employed to obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters, allowing the use of model selection procedures. The main features of real tree lines emerged only in models considering nonlinear responses in individual rates of growth or mortality with respect to the altitudinal gradient. Variation in tree-line physiognomy reflected mainly changes in the relative importance of these nonlinear responses, while other processes, such as dispersal limitation and facilitation, played a secondary role. Different nonlinear responses also determined the presence or absence of krummholz, in agreement with recent findings highlighting a different response of diffuse and abrupt or krummholz tree lines to climate change. The method presented here can be widely applied in individual-based simulation models and will turn model selection and evaluation in this type of models into a more transparent, effective, and efficient exercise

Seed production and dispersal limit treeline advance in the Pyrenees

Aims Pinus uncinata is the major treeline‐forming species in the Pyrenees. Yet, the role of its reproduction and dispersal as drivers of treeline dynamics remains unknown. Here we quantify seed production, dispersal and germination changes along the elevation gradient to assess whether they may constrain the foreseen treeline advance in the Pyrenees. Location Central Pyrenees, Catalonia, NE Spain. Methods We established four plots along an elevation gradient from the closed subalpine forest to the krummholz zone at five study sites. In each plot, we collected cones from five to six trees, measured their length, and triggered their opening in the laboratory to count the number of empty seeds and the number and weight of full seeds. We used the collected seeds in a germination experiment under controlled conditions in growth chambers. Additionally, we installed seed traps along the forest-alpine grassland transition to measure seed rain for three consecutive years in three of the study sites. Results The number of full seeds per cone decreased along the elevation gradient and was correlated with cone length. However, the proportion of full seeds per cone and their weight did not differ between elevation positions. Seed rain decreased drastically with elevation and no seeds arrived into the alpine grassland traps consistently across study years. Although germination success did not significantly differ between elevation provenances (i.e., elevation position of origin), we found significant differences in germination dynamics between study sites and between elevation provenances within sites. Conclusions Our results indicate that whereas the viability of Pinus uncinata seeds is not limited by elevation, seed production and dispersal are constraining the ongoing rates of treeline advance in the Pyrenee

Contrasting human influences and macro-environmental factors on fire activity inside and outside protected areas in North America

Human activities threaten the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in achieving their conservation goals across the globe. In this study, we contrast the influence of human and macro-environmental factors driving fire activity inside and outside PAs. Using area burned between 1984 and 2014 for 11 ecoregions in Canada and the United States, we built and compared statistical models of fire likelihood using the MaxEnt software and a set of 11 key anthropogenic, climatic, and physical variables. Overall, the full model (i.e. including all variables) performed better (adjusted area under the curve ranging from 0.71 to 0.95 for individual ecoregions) than the model that excluded anthropogenic variables. Both model types (with and without anthropogenic variables) generally performed better inside than outside the PAs. Climatic variables were usually of foremost importance in explaining fire activity inside and outside PAs, with anthropogenic variables being the second most important predictors, even inside PAs. While the individual contributions of anthropogenic variables indicate that fire activity decreased as of function of increasing human footprint, the anthropogenic effects were often substantially greater than those of physical features and were comparable to or even greater than climatic effects in some densely developed ecoregions, both outside and within PAs (e.g. Mediterranean California, Eastern Temperate Forest, and Tropical Wet Forests). Together, these results show the pervasive impact of humans on fire regimes inside PAs, as well as outside PAs. Given the increasing attractiveness of PAs, the implications for adaptive fire management beyond the concept of naturalness in the PAs are discussed. Our assessment of human-altered fire activity could serve as an indicator of human pressure in PAs; however, we suggest that further analysis is needed to understand specific interactions among fire, human pressures, and the environmental conditions at the scale of PAs

Climatic suitability derived from species distribution models captures community responses to an extreme drought episode

The differential responses of co-occurring species in rich communities to climate change-particularly to drought episodes-have been fairly unexplored. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to assess changes in species suitability under environmental shifts, but whether they can portray population and community responses is largely undetermined, especially in relation to extreme events. Here we studied a shrubland community in SE Spain because this region constitutes an ecotone between the Mediterranean biome and subtropical arid areas, and it has recently suffered its driest hydrological year on record. We used four different modeling algorithms (Mahalanobis distance, GAM, BRT, and MAXENT) to estimate species' climatic suitability before (1950-2000) and during the extreme drought. For each SDM, we related species' climatic suitability with their remaining green canopy as a proxy for species resistance to drought. We consistently found a positive correlation between remaining green canopy and species' climatic suitability before the event. This relationship supports the hypothesis of a higher vulnerability of populations living closer to their species' limits of aridity tolerance. Contrastingly, climatic suitability during the drought did not correlate with remaining green canopy, likely because the exceptional episode led to almost zero suitability values. Overall, our approach highlights climatic niche modeling as a robust approach to standardizing and comparing the behavior of different co-occurring species facing strong climatic fluctuations. Although many processes contribute to resistance to climatic extremes, the results confirm the relevance of populations' position in the species' climatic niche for explaining sensitivity to climate change

Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models : effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change

The effect of feeder system and diet on welfare, performance and meat quality, of growing-finishing Iberian × Duroc pigs under high environmental temperatures

The present study investigated the replacement of 5% of starch (ST) by 5% of sunflower oil (SO), with or without feed restriction, in the diet of growing-finishing Iberian × Duroc pigs exposed to heat stress conditions. The effects of these strategies on the welfare, performance and meat quality of the animals were evaluated. Seventy-two crossbred males [51.00 ± 6.29 kg body weight (BW)] were housed in collective pens and randomly distributed according to their initial BW in climate-controlled rooms under heat stress conditions (30–32 °C; 35%–50% humidity). The experiment was carried out in a randomized block design, in a 2 × 2 factorial design composed of two diets (control or oil) and two feed management (ad-libitum and restriction) types. The investigated treatments were: 1) control diet (5% ST × 0% SO) with ad-libitum feed intake, 2) oil diet (replacement of 5% of ST by 5% SO) with ad-libitum feed intake, 3) control diet with restriction feed intake, and 4) oil diet with restriction feed intake. The pigs’ behavior and dirtiness score were observed daily, and their performance was assessed weekly. Furthermore, three blood samples were collected from each animal for hemogram analysis during the period of study. The analysis of meat and carcass quality was performed 24 h post-mortem once the animals had reached an average BW of 130–140 kg. Statistical analyses were performed using the PROC MIXED and PROC GENMOD procedures of the Statistical Analysis System (SAS). The diet-regimen interaction produced no effects (P > 0.05) on the analyzed variables, except for behavior. Animals on the control diet associated with ad-libitum feed management spent more time in the lateral decubitus position and showed reduced activity. In addition, pigs fed ad-libitum and those that received the control diet displayed the highest level of dirtiness during the experiment. Evaluation of performance revealed that pigs receiving the oil diet showed reduced feed intake (P < 0.05) with no difference in average daily gain and consequently presented better feed conversion values compared to animals on the control diet. Furthermore, the oil diet resulted in a higher (P < 0.05) carcass yield as well as a higher oleic fat content in the meat. Pigs on restricted feeding management with lower body and carcass weights produced higher values of leanness percentage and carcass compared to animals in the ad-libitum group. In conclusion, the replacement of 5% of starch by 5% of sunflower oil in the pigs’ diet during high ambient temperatures improved the animals’ welfare, feed efficiency, and carcass characteristics.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

MEDFATE 2.9.3: a trait-enabled model to simulate Mediterranean forest function and dynamics at regional scales

Regional-level applications of dynamic vegetation models are challenging because they need to accommodate the variation in plant functional diversity, which requires moving away from broadly defined functional types. Different approaches have been adopted in the last years to incorporate a trait-based perspective into modeling exercises. A common parametrization strategy involves using trait data to represent functional variation between individuals while discarding taxonomic identity. However, this strategy ignores the phylogenetic signal of trait variation and cannot be employed when predictions for specific taxa are needed, such as in applications to inform forest management planning. An alternative strategy involves adapting the taxonomic resolution of model entities to that of the data source employed for large-scale initialization and estimating functional parameters from available plant trait databases, adopting diverse solutions for missing data and non-observable parameters. Here we report the advantages and limitations of this second strategy according to our experience in the development of MEDFATE (version 2.9.3), a novel cohort-based and trait-enabled model of forest dynamics, for its application over a region in the western Mediterranean Basin. First, 217 taxonomic entities were defined according to woody species codes of the Spanish National Forest Inventory. While forest inventory records were used to obtain some empirical parameter estimates, a large proportion of physiological, morphological, and anatomical parameters were matched to measured plant traits, with estimates extracted from multiple databases and averaged at the required taxonomic level. Estimates for non-observable key parameters were obtained using meta-modeling and calibration exercises. Missing values were addressed using imputation procedures based on trait covariation, taxonomic averages or both. The model properly simulated observed historical changes in basal area, with a performance similar to an empirical model trained for the same region. While strong efforts are still required to parameterize trait-enabled models for multiple taxa, and to incorporate intra-specific trait variability, estimation procedures such as those presented here can be progressively refined, transferred to other regions or models and iterated following data source changes by employing automated workflows. We advocate for the adoption of trait-enabled and population-structured models for regional-level projections of forest function and dynamics

Fire and biodiversity in the Anthropocene

The workshop leading to this paper was funded by the Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions. L.T.K. was supported by a Victorian Postdoctoral Research Fellowship (Victorian Government), a Centenary Fellowship (University of Melbourne), and an Australian Research Council Linkage Project Grant (LP150100765). A.R. was supported by the Xunta de Galicia (Postdoctoral Fellowship ED481B2016/084-0) and the Foundation for Science and Technology under the FirESmart project (PCIF/MOG/0083/2017). A.L.S. was supported by a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (746191) under the European Union Horizon 2020 Programme for Research and Innovation. L.R. was supported by the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub. L.B. was partially supported by the Spanish Government through the INMODES (CGL2014-59742-C2-2-R) and the ERANET-SUMFORESTS project FutureBioEcon (PCIN-2017-052). This research was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station.BACKGROUND Fire has shaped the diversity of life on Earth for millions of years. Variation in fire regimes continues to be a source of biodiversity across the globe, and many plants, animals, and ecosystems depend on particular temporal and spatial patterns of fire. Although people have been using fire to modify environments for millennia, the combined effects of human activities are now changing patterns of fire at a global scale—to the detriment of human society, biodiversity, and ecosystems. These changes pose a global challenge for understanding how to sustain biodiversity in a new era of fire. We synthesize how changes in fire activity are threatening species with extinction across the globe, highlight forward-looking methods for predicting the combined effects of human drivers and fire on biodiversity, and foreshadow emerging actions and strategies that could revolutionize how society manages fire for biodiversity in the Anthropocene. ADVANCES Our synthesis shows that interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as global climate change, land use, and biotic invasions are transforming fire activity and its impacts on biodiversity. More than 4400 terrestrial and freshwater species from a wide range of taxa and habitats face threats associated with modified fire regimes. Many species are threatened by an increase in fire frequency or intensity, but exclusion of fire in ecosystems that need it can also be harmful. The prominent role of human activity in shaping global ecosystems is the hallmark of the Anthropocene and sets the context in which models and actions must be developed. Advances in predictive modeling deliver new opportunities to couple fire and biodiversity data and to link them with forecasts of multiple drivers including drought, invasive plants, and urban growth. Making these connections also provides an opportunity for new actions that could revolutionize how society manages fire. Emerging actions include reintroduction of mammals that reduce fuels, green fire breaks comprising low-flammability plants, strategically letting wildfires burn under the right conditions, managed evolution of populations aided by new genomics tools, and deployment of rapid response teams to protect biodiversity assets. Indigenous fire stewardship and reinstatement of cultural burning in a modern context will enhance biodiversity and human well-being in many regions of the world. At the same time, international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are crucial to reduce the risk of extreme fire events that contribute to declines in biodiversity. OUTLOOK Conservation of Earth’s biological diversity will be achieved only by recognition of and response to the critical role of fire in shaping ecosystems. Global changes in fire regimes will continue to amplify interactions between anthropogenic drivers and create difficult trade-offs between environmental and social objectives. Scientific input will be crucial for navigating major decisions about novel and changing ecosystems. Strategic collection of data on fire, biodiversity, and socioeconomic variables will be essential for developing models to capture the feedbacks, tipping points, and regime shifts characteristic of the Anthropocene. New partnerships are also needed to meet the challenges ahead. At the local and regional scale, getting more of the “right” type of fire in landscapes that need it requires new alliances and networks to build and apply knowledge. At the national and global scale, biodiversity conservation will benefit from greater integration of fire into national biodiversity strategies and action plans and in the implementation of international agreements and initiatives such as the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. Placing the increasingly important role of people at the forefront of efforts to understand and adapt to changes in fire regimes is central to these endeavors.PostprintPeer reviewe