Performance of Framingham cardiovascular disease (CVD) predictions in the Rotterdam Study taking into account competing risks and disentangling CVD into coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke

AbstractBackgroundTo evaluate the performance of Framingham predictions of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk corrected for the competing risk of non-CVD death, in an independent European cohort of older individuals and subsequently extend the predictions by disentangling CVD into coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke separately.MethodsWe used the Rotterdam Study data, a prospective cohort study of individuals aged 55years and older (N=6004), to validate the Framingham predictions of CVD, defined as first occurrence of myocardial infarction, coronary death or stroke during 15years of follow-up, corrected for the competing risk of non-CVD death. We subsequently estimated the risks of CHD and stroke separately, and used the sum as a predictor for the total CVD risk. Calibration plots and c-statistics were used to evaluate the performance of the models.ResultsPerformance of the Framingham predictions was good in the low- to intermediate risk (≤30%, 15-year CVD risk) (17.5% observed vs. 16.6% expected) but poorer in the higher risk (>30%) categories (36.3% observed vs. 44.1% expected). The c-statistic increased from 0.66 to 0.69 after refitting. Separately estimating CHD and stroke revealed considerable heterogeneity with regard to the contribution of CHD and stroke to total CVD risk.ConclusionsFramingham CVD risk predictions perform well in the low- to intermediate risk categories in the Rotterdam Study. Disentangling CVD into CHD and stroke separately provides additional information about the individual contribution of CHD and stroke to total individual CVD risk

Sex differences in lifetime risk and first manifestation of cardiovascular disease: prospective population based cohort study

Objective: To evaluate differences in first manifestations of cardiovascular disease between men and women in a competing risks framework. Design: Prospective population based cohort study. Setting: People living in the community in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Participants: 8419 participants (60.9% women) aged ≥55 and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. Main outcome measures First diagnosis of coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, revascularisation, and coronary death), cerebrovascular disease (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and carotid revascularisation), heart failure, or other cardiovascular death; or death from non-cardiovascular causes. Data were used to calculate lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease and its first incident manifestations adjusted for competing non-cardiovascular death. Results: During follow-up of up to 20.1 years, 2888 participants developed cardiovascular disease (826 coronary heart disease, 1198 cerebrovascular disease, 762 heart failure, and 102 other cardiovascular death). At age 55, overall lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease were 67.1% (95% confidence interval 64.7% to 69.5%) for men and 66.4% (64.2% to 68.7%) for women. Lifetime risks of first incident manifestations of cardiovascular disease in men were 27.2% (24.1% to 30.3%) for coronary heart disease, 22.8% (20.4% to 25.1%) for cerebrovascular disease, 14.9% (13.3% to 16.6%) for heart failure, and 2.3% (1.6% to 2.9%) for other deaths from cardiovascular disease. For women the figures were 16.9% (13.5% to 20.4%), 29.8% (27.7% to 31.9%), 17.5% (15.9% to 19.2%), and 2.1% (1.6% to 2.7%), respectively. Differences in the number of events that developed over the lifespan in women compared with men (per 1000) were −7 for any cardiovascular disease, −102 for coronary heart disease, 70 for cerebrovascular disease, 26 for heart failure, and −1 for other cardiovascular death; all outcomes manifested at a higher age in women. Patterns were similar when analyses were restricted to hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease outcomes, but absolute risk differences between men and women were attenuated for both coronary heart disease and stroke. Conclusions: At age 55, though men and women have similar lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease, there are considerable differences in the first manifestation. Men are more likely to develop coronary heart disease as a first event, while women are more likely to have cerebrovascular disease or heart failure as their first event, although these manifestations appear most often at older ages

Sex differences in lifetime risk and first manifestation of cardiovascular disease: Prospective population based cohort study

Objective: To evaluate differences in first manifestations of cardiovascular disease between men and women in a competing risks framework. Design: Prospective population based cohort study. Setting: People living in the community in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Participants: 8419 participants (60.9% women) aged ≥55 and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. Main outcome measures: First diagnosis of coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, revascularisation, and coronary death), cerebrovascular disease (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and carotid revascularisation), heart failure, or other cardiovascular death; or death from non-cardiovascular causes. Data were used to calculate lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease and its first incident manifestations adjusted for competing non-cardiovascular death. Results: During follow-up of up to 20.1 years, 2888 participants developed cardiovascular disease (826 coronary heart disease, 1198 cerebrovascular disease, 762 heart failure, and 102 other cardiovascular death). At age 55, overall lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease were 67.1% (95% confidence interval 64.7% to 69.5%) for men and 66.4% (64.2% to 68.7%) for women. Lifetime risks of first incident manifestations of cardiovascular disease in men were 27.2% (24.1

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Construct, content and face validity of the eoSim laparoscopic simulator on advanced suturing tasks

Background: The purpose of this study was to validate the eoSim, an affordable and mobile inanimate laparoscopic simulator with instrument tracking capabilities, regarding face, content and construct validity on complex suturing tasks. Methods: Participants recruited for this study were novices (no laparoscopic experience), target group for this training (surgical/gynaecologic/urologic residents, &gt; 10 basic and &lt; 20 advanced laparoscopic procedures) and experts (&gt; 20 advanced laparoscopic procedures). Each participant performed the intracorporeal suturing exercise (Task 1), an upside down needle transfer (Task 2, developed for this study) and an anastomosis needle transfer (Task 3). Following, the participants completed a questionnaire regarding their demographics and opinion on the eoSim in terms of realism, didactic value and usability. Measured outcome parameters were time, distance, percentage of instrument tip off-screen, working area, speed, acceleration and smoothness. Results: In total, 104 participants completed the study, of which 60 novices, 31 residents and 13 experts. Face and content validity results showed a mean positive opinion on realism (3.9 Task 1, 3.6 Task 2 and 3.7 Task 3), didactic value (4.0, 3.4 and 3.7, respectively) and usability (4.2. 3.7 and 4.0, respectively). There were no significant differences in these outcomes between the specified expertise groups. Construct validity results showed significant differences between experts, target group or novices for Task 1 in terms of time (means 339, 607 and 1224 s, respectively, p &lt; 0.001) and distance (means 8.1, 15.6 and 21.7 m, respectively, p &lt; 0.001). Task 2 showed significant differences between groups regarding time (p &lt; 0.001), distance (p 0.003), off-screen (p &lt; 0.001) and working area (p &lt; 0.001). Task 3 showed significant differences between groups, after subanalyses, on total number of stitches (p &lt; 0.001), time per stitch (p &lt; 0.001) and distance per stitch (p &lt; 0.001). Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that the eoSim is a potential meaningful and valuable simulator in the training of suturing tasks.</p

Construct, content and face validity of the eoSim laparoscopic simulator on advanced suturing tasks

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Face, Content, and Construct Validity of the Take-Home EoSim Augmented Reality Laparoscopy Simulator for Basic Laparoscopic Tasks

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Revisional laparoscopic antireflux surgery after unsuccessful endoscopic fundoplication

Transoral incisionless fundoplication (TIF), a novel endoscopic procedure for treating gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), currently is under evaluation. In case of treatment failure, subsequent revisional laparoscopic antireflux surgery (rLARS) may be required. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility, safety, and outcomes of revisional antireflux surgery after previous endoscopic fundoplication. Chronic GERD patients who underwent rLARS after a previous TIF procedure were included in the study. Pre- and postoperative assessment included GERD-related quality-of-life scores, proton pump inhibitor (PPI) usage, 24-h pH-metry, upper gastrointestinal endoscopy, and registration of adverse events. Revisional laparoscopic Nissen fundoplication was feasible for all 15 patients included in the study without conversions to open surgery. Acid exposure of the distal esophagus improved significantly after rLARS, and esophagitis, PPI usage, and hiatal hernia decreased. Quality of life did not improve significantly after rLARS, and 33 % of the patients experienced dysphagia. Revisional laparoscopic Nissen fundoplication was feasible and safe after unsuccessful endoscopic fundoplication, resulting in objective reflux control at the cost of a relatively high rate of dysphagi