Determining climate change impacts on viticulture in Western Australia

Global climate model simulations indicate 1.3°C to 1.8°C increase in the Earth’s average temperature by middle of this century above the 1980 to 1999 average. The magnitude and rate of change of this projected warming is greater than the average warming during the last century. Global climate models project an even higher degree of warming later in the century also due to increasing grrenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere from human activity. Impacts of future climate change on viticulture are likely to be significant as viticulture requires a narrow climate range to produce grapes of suitable quality for premium wine production.In this thesis, impacts of climate change on winegrape growing conditions across the Western Australian wine regions were spatially and temporally examined by utilising fine resolution downscaled climate projections. Relationships between climate variation and grape maturity or key quality attributes of Cabernet Sauvignon, Shiraz and Chardonnay were modelled from measured fruit and climate data along a natural climate gradient encompassing a 5°C range in winegrape growing season average temperature. Potential future climate change impacts on grape quality were quantitatively evaluated by driving the grape quality models with the downscaled climate projections.Analyses of climate conditions for winegrape growth were carried out under future climate projections for the Western Australian wine regions. A total of 10 global climate models forced with an A2 emission scenario were downscaled. Of these models, the MEDRES Miroc3.2 and CSIRO Mk3.5 climate models, which indicated the low and high warming ranges (projections of these models will be referred as low and high range warming, hereafter) across the study regions, were selected to take into account the uncertainty of future climate change for impact assessment. Our results indicate increasingly warmer and drier climate conditions for the Western Australian wine regions. The current October to April average temperature (averaged across the regions) is projected to be 0.5°C to 1.5°C warmer by 2030, respectively. The magnitude of the warming will likely be uneven across the regions. For example, 0.1 to 0.3°C higher average temperature during October to April period has been projected for the northern regions than the southern regions by 2030, depending on the warming ranges. On the other hand, rainfall is projected to decrease across the regions under the future scenario we assessed in this study. By 2030, annual rainfall, averaged across the regions, is projected to decline by 5 to 8%, respectively, under the low and high warming ranges of climate change under the A2 emission scenario. Among seasons, the greatest decline in rainfall is projected to occur during spring. On average, up to 8% and 19% decline in spring rainfall is projected respectively under the low and high warming ranges by 2030.The magnitude of these changes are projected to increase as time progresses. For example, by 2070, averaged across the study regions, our modelling results show current mean temperature during October to April is projected to be between 1.1°C and 3.9°C warmer, but the annual rainfall is likely to be 15 to 24% lower than the current climate averages (1975 to 2005) under the A2 scenario.Maturity dates of the studied varieties are projected to advance asymmetrically across the study regions. For example, Cabernet Sauvignon may reach 22 °Brix total soluble solid maturity about 4 and 7 days earlier respectively for the northern and the southern regions by 2030 under the low warming range. Our results also indicate maturity date shifting a further 8 and 18 days earlier by 2070 for the northern and the southern regions respectively under the same warming range. Patterns of this maturity date shifting is likely to be similar under the high warming range. However, the magnitude of advancement is projected to be doubled.If no adaptive measures are implemented future climate change will likely reduce wine quality due to declining concentrations of berry anthocyanins and acidity under a warmer climate. The reductions of berry quality attributes are likely to be more pronounced in the warmer northern wine regions compared to the cooler southern regions. For example, Cabernet Sauvignon current median anthocyanins concentration is projected to decline by about 12% and 33% for the warmer northern regions, and about 6 to 18% for the cooler southern wine regions respectively by 2030 and 2070 under the high warming range. In contrast, the maximum decline in Cabernet Sauvignon anthocyanin concentration under the lower warming range is projected to be small, up to 5% for the cooler southern and up to 8% for the warmer northern regions by 2070. Shiraz anthocyanins concentration decrease pattern is similar to that of Cabernet Sauvignon, however, our modelling indicates the magnitude is smaller, with maximum of 18% for Swan District and about 11% for the southern regions by 2070 under the high warming range.Modelled impacts of climate change on grape titratable acidity are also region and variety specific. Among the varieties studied, Chardonnay exhibits the highest decline in median titratable acidity across the regions (17% for the Margaret River and 42% for the Swan District regions), followed by Shiraz (7% for the Margaret River and 15% for the Peel regions) and Cabernet Sauvignon (no change for Blackwood and 12% for the Swan District regions) by 2070 under high climate warming. On the other hand, the median titratable acidity levels are less impacted by low warming scenario (maximum decline is 4% for Shiraz only by 2070).Under the future warming scenarios studied in this thesis currently established wine regions and wine styles across the Western Australian wine regions are likely to be affected to the extent that some regions may not be conducive to premium wine production, while for some regions changing the variety may be the only option to adapt to the climate change. For example, by 2070, under high warming range Swan District, Perth Hills, and some parts of the Peel and Geographe regions are projected to be suited more to producing fortified wines or table grapes due to high average growing season temperature (>24°C). In this future climate the present cool climate southern regions are likely to have the same climate conditions that currently prevail in the warmer Swan District. Apparent differences in currently planted varieties between the cooler southern and warmer northern regions clearly indicate the need to adapt to the warming climate in the southern wine regions.Analysis of other potential factors that influence viticulture such as frequency of hot days, vapour pressure deficit and disease pressure were examined. The results indicated that winegrape fungal disease pressure will likely decrease across the regions due to the declining rainfall, potentially lessening the need for spraying during the growing season. On the other hand, there will likely be increased frequency of hot days and elevated vapour pressure deficit. The impacts of these, combined with the decreasing rainfall during growing season will potentially drive irrigation demand higher requiring altered water management under climate change.Climatically, most of the Western Australian wine regions are known as premium wine producing areas. The results from this study indicate potential challenges of climate change for the Western Australian wine industry. Under the future climate scenarios examined, some currently warmer regions may become less suitable for premium quality wines due to the increased temperature, which is projected to be out of the optimum temperature range for premium wine production. For most of the other regions, the challenge will likely be a decreased grape quality required to produce premium wine with the current varieties. Suitable adaptation strategies may be required to maintain the current market reputation. Furthermore, the warmer and drier conditions under climate change is likely to necessitate revised water management across the wine growing regions, especially some regions which are already limited by available water for grape production. However, the magnitude of the impacts is projected to be dependent upon the magnitude of future climate change

Responses of grape berry anthocyanin and tritratable acidity to the projected climate change across the Western Australian wine regions

More than a century of observations has established that climate influences grape berry composition. Accordingly, the projected global climate change is expected to impact on grape berry composition although the magnitude and direction of impact at regional and subregional scales are not fully known. The aim of this study was to assess potential impacts of climate change on levels of berry anthocyanin and titratable acidity (TA) of the major grapevine varieties grown across all of the Western Australian (WA) wine regions. Grape berry anthocyanin and TA responses across all WA wine regions were projected for 2030, 2050 and 2070 by utilising empirical models that link these berry attributes and climate data downscaled (to ∼5 km resolution) from the csiro_mk3_5 and miroc3_2_medres global climate model outputs under IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario. Due to the dependence of berry composition on maturity, climate impacts on anthocyanin and TA levels were assessed at a common maturity of 22 °Brix total soluble solids (TSS), which necessitated the determination of when this maturity will be reached for each variety, region and warming scenario, and future period.The results indicate that both anthocyanin and TA levels will be affected negatively by a warming climate, but the magnitude of the impacts will differ between varieties and wine regions. Compared to 1990 levels, median anthocyanins concentrations are projected to decrease, depending on global climate model, by up to 3–12 % and 9–33 % for the northern wine regions by 2030 and 2070, respectively while 2–18 % reductions are projected in the southern wine regions for the same time periods. Patterns of reductions in the median Shiraz berry anthocyanin concentrations are similar to that of Cabernet Sauvignon; however, the magnitude is lower (up to 9–18 % in southern and northern wine regions respectively by 2070). Similarly, uneven declines in TA levels are projected across the study regions. The largest reductions in median TA are likely to occur in the present day warmer wine regions, up to 40 % for Chardonnay followed by 15 % and 12 % for Shiraz and Cabernet Sauvignon, respectively, by 2070 under the high warming projection (csiro_mk3_5). It is concluded that, under existing management practices, some of the key grape attributes that are integral to premium wine production will be affected negatively by a warming climate, but the magnitudes of the impacts vary across the established wine regions, varieties, the magnitude of warming and future periods considered

Identification of stable QTLs for vegetative and reproductive traits in the microvine (Vitis vinifera L.) using the 18 K Infinium chip

UMR AGAP - équipe DAAV - Diversité, adaptation et amélioration de la vigne[b]Background[/b] [br/]The increasing temperature associated with climate change impacts grapevine phenology and development with critical effects on grape yield and composition. Plant breeding has the potential to deliver new cultivars with stable yield and quality under warmer climate conditions, but this requires the identification of stable genetic determinants. This study tested the potentialities of the microvine to boost genetics in grapevine. A mapping population of 129 microvines derived from Picovine x Ugni Blanc flb, was genotyped with the Illumina® 18 K SNP (Single Nucleotide Polymorphism) chip. Forty-three vegetative and reproductive traits were phenotyped outdoors over four cropping cycles, and a subset of 22 traits over two cropping cycles in growth rooms with two contrasted temperatures, in order to map stable QTLs (Quantitative Trait Loci). [br/][b]Results[/b] [br/]Ten stable QTLs for berry development and quality or leaf area were identified on the parental maps. A new major QTL explaining up to 44 % of total variance of berry weight was identified on chromosome 7 in Ugni Blanc flb, and co-localized with QTLs for seed number (up to 76 % total variance), major berry acids at green lag phase (up to 35 %), and other yield components (up to 25 %). In addition, a minor QTL for leaf area was found on chromosome 4 of the same parent. In contrast, only minor QTLs for berry acidity and leaf area could be found as moderately stable in Picovine. None of the transporters recently identified as mutated in low acidity apples or Cucurbits were included in the several hundreds of candidate genes underlying the above berry QTLs, which could be reduced to a few dozen candidate genes when a priori pertinent biological functions and organ specific expression were considered. [br/][b]Conclusions[/b] [br/]This study combining the use of microvine and a high throughput genotyping technology was innovative for grapevine genetics. It allowed the identification of 10 stable QTLs, including the first berry acidity QTLs reported so far in a Vitis vinifera intra-specific cross. Robustness of a set of QTLs was assessed with respect to temperature variatio

Integrating geographic information systems and hemispherical photography in the assessment of canopy light profiles in a vineyard

The light conditions in a vineyard primarily depend on the latitude of the vineyard and day of the year. Based on these parameters, the exact daily Sun path can be calculated with astronomical functions. However, effective Sun hours also depend on the topography of the territory, both for direct and diffuse radiation, as a result of the presence of hills and mountains on the Sun path (direct radiation) or, in general, reducing the sky fraction (diffuse radiation). A 360° orographic profile can be assessed by topographic survey, by using hemispherical pictures or Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Digital Elevation Models (DEM). Moreover, row orientation, vine spacing, trellis system and height, leaf area density, exposure side, etc. further affect the light micro-climate within the canopy and, particularly, at bunch level, which may have consequences for the temperature and composition of the berries. In the present work two grapevine row orientations (NS and EW) were used to integrate various tools (Photovoltaic Geographical Information System, Visual Basic functions for the calculation of solar position and radiation, and results from the processing of hemispherical pictures) into an Excel Worksheet, called “SunMask”, that can be used as a new multi-purpose tool to 1) quickly calculate both the astronomic and the topographic sunrise, sunset, and maximum potential day length, 2) evaluate the effect of row orientation and canopy dimensions on the transmittance of the direct solar beam at high temporal resolution and, finally, 3) separate the effect of topographic and canopy masks on the Sun hours under clear-sky conditions. By combining the different tools in SunMask, both the astronomic and topographic (as affected by the surrounding hills and mountains) sunrise, sunset, and maximum potential day length can be quickly and easily calculated for every specific vineyard terroir/location at any date or time in Europe, Africa and Asia. In addition, the software allows the evaluation of the effect of the canopy mask on the transmittance of the direct solar beam. SunMask will be a very important asset to improve information regarding radiation profiles of vineyards at meso- and micro-levels. It will be most valuable in the assessment of terroir suitability for vineyard establishment as well as for viticulture practice choices and the management of grapevine canopies

Differential responses of sugar, organic acids and anthocyanins to source-sink modulation in Cabernet Sauvignon and Sangiovese grapevines

Grape berry composition mainly consists of primary and secondary metabolites. Both are sensitive to environment and viticultural management. As a consequence, climate change can affect berry composition and modify wine quality and typicity. Leaf removal techniques can impact berry composition by modulating the source-to-sink balance and, in turn, may mitigate some undesired effects due to climate change. The present study investigated the balance between technological maturity parameters such as sugars and organic acids, and phenolic maturity parameters such as anthocyanins in response to source-sink modulation. Sugar, organic acid, and anthocyanin profiles were compared under two contrasting carbon supply levels in berries of cv. Cabernet Sauvignon and Sangiovese collected at 9 and 14 developmental stages respectively. In addition, whole-canopy net carbon exchange rate was monitored for Sangiovese vines and a mathematic model was used to calculate the balance between carbon fixation and berry sugar accumulation. Carbon limitation affected neither berry size nor the concentration of organic acids at harvest. However, it significantly reduced the accumulation of sugars and total anthocyanins in both cultivars. Most interestingly, carbon limitation decreased total anthocyanin concentration by 84.3% as compared to the non source-limited control, whereas it decreased sugar concentration only by 27.1%. This suggests that carbon limitation led to a strong imbalance between sugars and anthocyanins. Moreover, carbon limitation affected anthocyanin profiles in a cultivar dependent manner. Mathematical analysis of carbon-balance indicated that berries used a higher proportion of fixed carbon for sugar accumulation under carbon limitation (76.9%) than under carbon sufficiency (48%). Thus, under carbon limitation, the grape berry can manage the metabolic fate of carbon in such a way that sugar accumulation is maintained at the expense of secondary metabolites

Late pruning impacts on chemical and sensory attributes of Shiraz wine

Background and Aims: Warming has two major effects on the wine industry: compressing harvest duration, thus stressing the current capacity of wineries to process more fruit in a shorter time, and compromising fruit composition and wine style. Late pruning can effectively delay vine development and contribute to decompressing harvest, but its impact on wine is unknown. Our aim was to measure the effects of late pruning on wine chemical and sensory attributes. Methods and Results: We compared wines made from Shiraz vines pruned in winter (Control), and in two late pruning stages, when Controls reached budburst and 2–3 leaves in two vintages. Late pruning consistently increased wine anthocyanin, tannin, pigmented tannin and colour density and altered the wine’s sensory profiles over two vintages. In 2014, colour intensity, fruit aroma, fruit flavours and body were more intense in wine made from late pruning treatments. In 2015, wine made from late pruning treatments showed more intense savoury flavours with a dryer palate and a smoother texture tannin (roughing sub-quality). The colour improvement was associated with cooler temperature 1 week after veraison in the late-pruned vines. Conclusions: Late pruning consistently improved wine chemical composition and altered sensory profiles of Shiraz under Barossa Valley conditions. Significance of the Study: Late pruning is a cost-effective tool to decompress harvest, with neutral effects on yield and positive effects on wine chemical attributes with enhancement of fruit and colour intensity perception in an extended vintage (2014), and smoother tannin texture with dryer perception in a short and compressed vintage (2015).M.A. Moran, S.E. Bastian , P.R. Petrie and V.O. Sadra