The use of habitat suitability models in conservation planning

The work of this thesis aims to highlight the contribution that suitability models can give to global scale conservation biology. Four main themes will be approached: Opportunity offered by model improvements; Information added to analyses on current protection status; contribution offered to priority setting; information added to long term efficiency in conservation plan

Are We Capturing Faunal Intactness? A Comparison of Intact Forest Landscapes and the “Last of the Wild in Each Ecoregion”

Efforts to designate priority areas for conservation have had a long history, with most modern initiatives focused on either designating areas important for biodiversity or those least impacted by direct human disturbance. Ecologically intact ecosystems are becoming increasingly limited on the planet, making their identification and conservation an important priority. Intact forest landscapes (IFL) are defined as forests that are mainly free of significant anthropogenic degradation and at least 500 km2 in size. Here we define a new metric, the Last of the Wild in each Ecoregion (LWE), as a preliminary scoping of the most intact parts of each ecoregion. IFL and LWE are approaches among a broad family of techniques to mapping ecological integrity at the global scale. Although both implicitly include species integrity as a dimension of intactness, this is inferred rather than directly measured. We assessed whether IFL or LWE areas were better at capturing species where they are most abundant using species distribution data for a set of forest species for which range-wide data were available and human activity limits the range. We found that IFL and LWE methods identified areas where species we assessed are either absent or at too low an abundance to be ecologically functional. As such many IFL/LWE polygons did not have intact fauna. We also show that 54.7% of the terrestrial realm (excluding Antarctica) has at least one species recorded as extinct and that two thirds of IFL/LWE areas overlap with areas where species have gone extinct in the past 500 years. The results show that even within the most remote areas, serious faunal loss has taken place at many localities so direct species survey work is also needed to confirm faunal intactness

Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widely used indicators of population abundance Geometric Mean Abundance, equivalent to the Living Planet Index and extinction risk (the Red List Index) under different climate and land-use change scenarios. Testing these on terrestrial carnivore and ungulate species, we found that both indicators decline steadily, and by 2050, under a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, geometric mean population abundance declines by 18-35% while extinction risk increases for 8-23% of the species, depending on assumptions about species responses to climate change. BAU will therefore fail Convention on Biological Diversity target 12 of improving the conservation status of known threatened species. An alternative sustainable development scenario reduces both extinction risk and population losses compared with BAU and could lead to population increases. Our approach to model species responses to global changes brings the focus of scenarios directly to the species level, thus taking into account an additional dimension of biodiversity and paving the way for including stronger ecological foundations into future biodiversity scenario assessments.Peer reviewe

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios

Projected global loss of mammal habitat due to land-use and climate change

Human pressure on the environment is driving a global decline of biodiversity. Anticipating whether this trend can be reverted under future scenarios is key to supporting policy decisions. We used the InSiGHTS framework to model the impacts of land-use and climate change on future habitat availability for 2,827 terrestrial mammals at 15 arcmin resolution under five contrasting global scenarios based on combinations of representative concentration pathways and shared socio-economic pathways between 2015 and 2050. Mammal habitat declined globally by 5%–16% depending on the scenario. Africa (with declines up to 25%) and South America were the most affected regions. African insectivores, primates, Australian carnivorous marsupials and marsupial moles, and South American opossums declined the most. Tackling this loss would require a mix of actions across scales, including a global shift toward sustainability, addressing land-use change in sub-Saharan Africa, and helping endemic species track climate change in South America

Effects of consumptive water use on biodiversity in wetlands of international importance

Wetlands are complex ecosystems that harbor a large diversity of species. Wetlands are among the most threatened ecosystems on our planet, due to human influences such as conversion and drainage. We assessed impacts from water consumption on the species richness of waterbirds, nonresidential birds, water-dependent mammals, reptiles and amphibians in wetlands, considering a larger number of taxa than previous life cycle impact assessment methods. Effect factors (EF) were derived for 1184 wetlands of international importance. EFs quantify the number of global species-equivalents lost per m2 of wetland area loss. Vulnerability and range size of species were included to reflect conservation values. Further, we derived spatially explicit characterization factors (CFs) that distinguish between surface water and groundwater consumption. All relevant watershed areas that are contributing to feeding the respective wetlands were determined for CF applications. In an example of rose production, we compared damages of water consumption in Kenya and The Netherlands. In both cases, the impact was largest for waterbirds. The total impact from water consumption in Kenya was 67 times larger than in The Netherlands, due to larger species richness and species’ vulnerability in Kenya, as well as more arid conditions and larger amounts of water consumed.ISSN:0013-936XISSN:1520-585

Ecological correlates of dispersal distance in terrestrial mammals

Dispersal distance in mammals is a fundamental information for several ecological and conservation applications. Although dispersal can depend on many intrinsic and extrinsic factors, in recent years many studies have shown that it scales with body size and home range area. However, the role of further ecological correlates to distance travelled is still unclear and the predictive models proposed so far have suffered from small sample size and lack of error estimates. This reduces the practical relevance of the models for ecological and conservation applications. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis on 327 studies on the dispersal of 164 mammal species, and performed linear and non-linear regression analyses to explore the relationships of body size and home range area with dispersal distance. We tested the effect of various life history traits and ecological factors on the relationships and performed a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the robustness of the models to sample size. The linear relationships of both home range and body size with dispersal distance were influenced by various life history traits and ecological factors. We developed allometric functions to estimate species dispersal distance based on different predictors and life history traits. Linear models representing the relationship between dispersal distance and body size or home range area received good support; however logistic models better approximates both relationships. Despite receiving less support than a logistic curve, a linear model between dispersal and home range is a good approximation for applicative purposes. Sensitivity analysis showed that our results are robust to subsampling of the original dataset until a sample of 40 species. Our empirical models have the potential to improve theoretical and applied population biology studies by extending the applicability and improving the accuracy of dispersal distance estimation to a large number of mammals

Data from: Generation length for mammals

Generation length (GL) is defined as the average age of parents of the current cohort, reflecting the turnover rate of breeding individuals in a population. GL is a fundamental piece of information for population ecologist as well as for measuring species threat status (e.g. in the IUCN Red List). Here we present a dataset including GL records for all extant mammal species (n=5426). We first reviewed all data on GL published in the IUCN Red List database. We then calculated a value for species with available reproductive parameters (reproductive life span and age at first reproduction). We assigned to missing-data species a mean GL value from congeneric or confamilial species (depending on data availability). Finally, for a few remaining species, we assigned mean GL values from species with similar body mass and belonging to the same order. Our work provides the first attempt to complete a database of GL for mammals; it will be an essential reference point for all conservation-related studies that need pragmatic information on species GL, such as population dynamics and applications of the IUCN Red List assessment

Global risk of invasion by terrestrial vertebrates under contrasting SSP scenarios

The introduction of alien species is among the main causes of biodiversity decline in the Anthropocene. We generated predictions of how climate and land-use change may modulate invasions by exotic species in the coming decades. We used the InSiGHTS modelling framework, which projects global species distributions through bioclimatic envelopes and habitat suitability models (HSMs), to predict the introduction and invasion risk of 333 allochthonous mammals and amphibians in three scenarios of global change: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 - Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1; RCP 6.0 – SSP 3; and RCP 8.5 – SSP 5. The bioclimatic envelopes were developed using biomod2 with specific settings for alien species, mediated bioclimatic layers from 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global circulation models and alien species distributions from recent databases. The HSMs were based on the Land-Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2). We defined the invasion risk as the species InSiGHTS Index, the mean proportion of suitable habitat for introduced species in each 0.5 degree cell, inside the exotic range plus the area reachable through natural species dispersal, and the introduction risk as the InSiGHTS Index outside the native range. Global invasion risk by terrestrial vertebrates is predicted to increase in all the scenarios. Invasion hotsposts were located in every continent except Antarctica and noticeably overlapped with biodiversity hotspots. The global introduction risk of mammals was positively correlated with climate change mitigation, with higher risk under RCP 2.6 – SSP 1 than in the other scenarios, and decreasing risk under RCP 8.5 – SSP 5 particularly at higher latitudes. For amphibians, global introduction risk increased at higher latitudes and decreased at lower latitudes in all the scenarios. Our prediction quantifies how mammals and amphibian invasion front will move in response to different global change scenarios, providing crucial information to prevent or mitigate their possible impact on biodiversity worldwide.peerReviewe