Probabilistic optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models: a comparison of the shuffled complex evolution and simulated annealing algorithms

Automatic optimization algorithms are used routinely to calibrate conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models. The goal of calibration is to estimate a feasible and unique (global) set of parameter estimates that best fit the observed runoff data. Most if not all optimization algorithms have difficulty in locating the global optimum because of response surfaces that contain multiple local optima with regions of attraction of differing size, discontinuities, and long ridges and valleys. Extensive research has been undertaken to develop efficient and robust global optimization algorithms over the last 10 years. This study compares the performance of two probabilistic global optimization methods: the shuffled complex evolution algorithm SCE-UA, and the three-phase simulated annealing algorithm SA-SX. Both algorithms are used to calibrate two parameter sets of a modified version of Boughtoh's [1984] SFB model using data from two Australian catchments that have low and high runoff yields. For the reduced, well-identified parameter set the algorithms have a similar efficiency for the low-yielding catchment, but SCE-UA is almost twice as robust. Although the robustness of the algorithms is similar for the high-yielding catchment, SCE-UA is six times more efficient than SA-SX. When fitting the full parameter set the performance of SA-SX deteriorated markedly for both catchments. These results indicated that SCE-UA's use of multiple complexes and shuffling provided a more effective search of the parameter space than SA-SX's single simplex with stochastic step acceptance criterion, especially when the level of parameterization is increased. Examination of the response surface for the low-yielding catchment revealed some reasons why SCE-UA outperformed SA-SX and why probabilistic optimization algorithms can experience difficulty in locating the global optimum.Mark Thyer and George Kuczera, Bryson C. Bate

Nanomagnetic intergrowths in Fe-Ni meteoritic metal: The potential for time-resolved records of planetesimal dynamo fields

Nanoscale intergrowths unique to the cloudy zones (CZs) of meteoritic metal display novel magnetic behaviour with the potential to reveal new insight into the early development of magnetic fields on protoplanetary bodies. The nanomagnetic state of the CZ within the Tazewell IIICD iron meteorite has been imaged using off-axis electron holography. The CZ is revealed to be a natural nanocomposite of magnetically hard islands of tetrataenite (ordered FeNi) embedded in a magnetically soft matrix of ordered Fe3Ni. In the remanent state, each tetrataenite island acts as a uniaxial single domain particle with its 001 magnetic easy axis oriented along one of three ?100? crystallographic directions of the parent taenite phase. Micromagnetic simulations demonstrate that switching occurs via the nucleation and propagation of domain walls through individual tetrataenite particles. The switching field (Hs) varies with the length scale of the matrix phase (Lm), with Hs \> 1 T for Lm \~{}10 nm (approaching the intrinsic switching field for isolated single domain tetrataenite) and 0.2 \< H s \< 0.6 T for Lm \~{}30 nm. The reduction in Hs with increasing Lc is caused by exchange coupling between the hard tetrataenite islands and the soft magnetic matrix, which lowers the critical field for domain wall nucleation, providing an explanation for previously observed coercivity variations throughout the {CZ.} Non-random distributions of the tetrataenite easy axes are observed locally throughout the {CZ}, suggesting a magnetic field could have been present during nanostructure formation. This observation demonstrates the potential for stable chemical transformation remanent magnetisation to be encoded by the nanostructure, with variations in the proportions of the six possible magnetisation states reflecting the intensity and relative direction of the magnetic fields present during cooling. According to recent cooling models, the cooling rate of meteoritic metal originating near the surface of differentiated planetesimals was such that the magnetic signal across the {CZ} could potentially record dynamo field intensity and direction variations over time (10{\textendash}100 Ma), which would enable events such as magnetic reversals and the decay of an asteroid dynamo to be observed

Neuroprotective effect of mild hypothermia in patients undergoing coronary artery surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass: Five-year follow-up of a randomized trial

ObjectiveIn a randomized trial of 223 patients undergoing coronary artery surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, we have reported a neuroprotective effect of mild hypothermia. To determine whether the beneficial effect of mild hypothermia was long-lasting, we repeated the psychometric tests in 131 patients after 5 years.MethodsPatients were cooled to 32°C during aortic crossclamping and then randomized to rewarming to either 34°C or 37°C, with no further rewarming until arrival in intensive care unit. Cognitive function was measured preoperatively and 1 week and 5 years postoperatively with a battery of 11 psychometric tests interrogating verbal memory, attention, and psychomotor speed and dexterity.ResultsPatients who had greater cognitive decline 1 week after surgery showed poorer performance 5 years later. The magnitude of cognitive decline over 5 years was modest. The incidence of deficits defined as a 1 standard deviation [SD] decline in at least 1 of 3 factors was not different between temperature groups. Fewer patients in the hypothermic group had deficits that persisted over the 5 years, but this difference did not attain statistical significance (RR = 0.64, P = .16).ConclusionsThe effect of surgery on cognitive function observed early after surgery is an important predictor of cognitive performance 5 years later. Although there was evidence of a neuroprotective effect of mild hypothermia early after surgery in the original cohort, the results after 5 years were inconclusive. In general, the magnitude of cognitive changes over 5 years was modest. We believe that further trials investigating the efficacy of mild hypothermia in patients having cardiac surgery are warranted

Exposure to general anesthesia and risk of alzheimer's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Alzheimer's disease (AD) is common among older adults and leads to significant disability. Volatile anesthetic gases administered during general anesthesia (GA) have been hypothesized to be a risk factor for the development of AD. The objective of this study is to systematically review the association between exposure to GA and risk of AD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We searched electronic databases including MEDLINE, Embase, and Google scholar for observational studies examining the association between exposure to GA and risk of AD. We examined study quality using a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa risk of bias assessment for observational studies. We used standard meta-analytic techniques to estimate pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were undertaken to evaluate the robustness of the findings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 15 case-control studies were included in the review. No cohort studies were identified that met inclusion criteria. There was variation in the methodological quality of included studies. There was no significant association between any exposure to GA and risk of AD (pooled OR: 1.05; 95% CI: 0.93 - 1.19, Z = 0.80, <it>p </it>= 0.43). There was also no significant association between GA and risk of AD in several subgroup and sensitivity analyses.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A history of exposure to GA is not associated with an increased risk of AD although there are few high-quality studies in this area. Prospective cohort studies with long-term follow-up or randomized controlled trials are required to further understand the association between GA and AD.</p

Search for new particles in events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for new particles produced at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at root s = 13 TeV, using events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb(-1), collected in 2017-2018 with the CMS detector. Machine learning techniques are used to define separate categories for events with narrow jets from initial-state radiation and events with large-radius jets consistent with a hadronic decay of a W or Z boson. A statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data sample of 36 fb(-1), collected in 2016. No significant excess of events is observed with respect to the standard model background expectation determined from control samples in data. The results are interpreted in terms of limits on the branching fraction of an invisible decay of the Higgs boson, as well as constraints on simplified models of dark matter, on first-generation scalar leptoquarks decaying to quarks and neutrinos, and on models with large extra dimensions. Several of the new limits, specifically for spin-1 dark matter mediators, pseudoscalar mediators, colored mediators, and leptoquarks, are the most restrictive to date.Peer reviewe

Combined searches for the production of supersymmetric top quark partners in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A combination of searches for top squark pair production using proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1) collected by the CMS experiment, is presented. Signatures with at least 2 jets and large missing transverse momentum are categorized into events with 0, 1, or 2 leptons. New results for regions of parameter space where the kinematical properties of top squark pair production and top quark pair production are very similar are presented. Depending on themodel, the combined result excludes a top squarkmass up to 1325 GeV for amassless neutralino, and a neutralinomass up to 700 GeV for a top squarkmass of 1150 GeV. Top squarks with masses from 145 to 295 GeV, for neutralino masses from 0 to 100 GeV, with a mass difference between the top squark and the neutralino in a window of 30 GeV around the mass of the top quark, are excluded for the first time with CMS data. The results of theses searches are also interpreted in an alternative signal model of dark matter production via a spin-0 mediator in association with a top quark pair. Upper limits are set on the cross section for mediator particle masses of up to 420 GeV

Probing effective field theory operators in the associated production of top quarks with a Z boson in multilepton final states at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe