Chronology for climate change: Developing age models for the biogeochemical ocean flux study cores

We construct age models for a suite of cores from the northeast Atlantic Ocean by means of accelerator mass spectrometer dating of a key core, BOFS 5K, and correlation with the rest of the suite. The effects of bioturbation and foraminiferal species abundance gradients upon the age record are modeled using a simple equation. The degree of bioturbation is estimated by comparing modeled profiles with dispersal of the Vedde Ash layer in core 5K, and we find a mixing depth of roughly 8 cm for sand-sized material. Using this value, we estimate that age offsets between unbioturbated sediment and some foraminifera species after mixing may be up to 2500 years, with lesser effect on fine carbonate (<10 mu m) ages. The bioturbation model illustrates problems associated with the dating of ''instantaneous'' events such as ash layers and the ''Heinrich'' peaks of ice-rafted detritus. Correlations between core 5K and the other cores from the BOFS suite are made on the basis of similarities in the downcore profiles of oxygen and carbon isotopes, magnetic susceptibility, water and carbonate content, and via marker horizons in X radiographs and ash beds

Mulga, a major tropical dry open forest of Australia: Recent insights to carbon and water fluxes

© 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd. Mulga, comprised of a complex of closely related Acacia spp., grades from a low open forest to tall shrublands in tropical and sub-tropical arid and semi-arid regions of Australia and experiences warm-to-hot annual temperatures and a pronounced dry season. This short synthesis of current knowledge briefly outlines the causes of the extreme variability in rainfall characteristic of much of central Australia, and then discusses the patterns and drivers of variability in carbon and water fluxes of a central Australian low open Mulga forest. Variation in phenology and the impact of differences in the amount and timing of precipitation on vegetation function are then discussed. We use field observations, with particular emphasis on eddy covariance data, coupled with modelling and remote sensing products to interpret inter-seasonal and inter-annual patterns in the behaviour of this ecosystem. We show that Mulga can vary between periods of near carbon neutrality to periods of being a significant sink or source for carbon, depending on both the amount and timing of rainfall. Further, we demonstrate that Mulga contributed significantly to the 2011 global land sink anomaly, a result ascribed to the exceptional rainfall of 2010/2011. Finally, we compare and contrast the hydraulic traits of three tree species growing close to the Mulga and show how each species uses different combinations of trait strategies (for example, sapwood density, xylem vessel implosion resistance, phenological guild, access to groundwater and Huber value) to co-exist in this semi-arid environment. Understanding the inter-annual variability in functional behaviour of this important arid-zone biome and mechanisms underlying species co-existence will increase our ability to predict trajectories of carbon and water balances for future changing climates

Adaptation responses to climate change differ between global megacities

Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems1, 2. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Policymakers need to understand current adaptation spend to plan comprehensively and effectively. Through the measurement of spend in the newly defined ‘adaptation economy’, we analyse current climate change adaptation efforts in ten megacities. In all cases, the adaptation economy remains a small part of the overall economy, representing a maximum of 0.33% of a city’s gross domestic product (here referred to as GDPc). Differences in total spend are significant between cities in developed, emerging and developing countries, ranging from £15 million to £1,600 million. Comparing key subsectors, we demonstrate the differences in adaptation profiles. Developing cities have higher proportional spend on health and agriculture, whereas developed cities have higher spend on energy and water. Spend per capita and percentage of GDPc comparisons more clearly show disparities between cities. Developing country cities spend half the proportion of GDPc and significantly less per capita, suggesting that adaptation spend is driven by wealth rather than the number of vulnerable people. This indicates that current adaptation activities are insufficient in major population centres in developing and emerging economies

Comment on "The global tree restoration potential"

Bastin et al. (Reports, 5 July 2019, p. 76) state that the restoration potential of new forests globally is 205 gigatonnes of carbon, conclude that “global tree restoration is our most effective climate change solution to date,” and state that climate change will drive the loss of 450 million hectares of existing tropical forest by 2050. Here we show that these three statements are incorrect

Stable isotope ecology of Cape dune mole-rats (Bathyergus suillus) from Elandsfontein, South Africa: implications for C4 vegetation and hominin paleobiology in the Cape Floral Region

The archaeological and paleontological records from the west coast of South Africa have potential to provide insights into ecosystem dynamics in the region during the mid Pleistocene. Although the fossil record suggests an ecosystem quite different than that of the region today, we understand little about the ecological factors that contributed to this disparity. The site of Elandsfontein (EFT) dates to between 1.0 and 0.6 million years ago (Ma), preserves in situ lithic and faunal materials found in direct association with each other, and provides the rare opportunity to examine the relationship between hominin behavioural variability and landscape heterogeneity in a winter rainfall ecosystem. In this study, we examine the stable carbon isotopic composition of a large sample (n = 81) of Cape dune mole-rats (Bathyergus suillus) and contemporaneous large mammals (> 6 kg; n = 194) from EFT. We find that δ13C values of B. suillus are significantly different to those of contemporaneous large mammals from EFT indicating a significant presence of plants utilizing the C4 photosynthetic pathway during the mid-Pleistocene, in contrast to present C3 dominated ecosystems along the west coast of South Africa. Additionally, we find that artifact density at EFT localities is positively correlated with δ13C values in B. suillus enamel suggesting that evidence of more intense hominin occupation may be associated with the presence of more C4 vegetation. Lastly, we hypothesize that this unique distribution of vegetation 1) provided abundant resources for both hominin and non-hominin taxa and 2) may have concentrated hominin and animal behavior in certain places on the ancient landscape

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change.

Published onlineReviewJournal ArticleThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.The Lancet Countdown would like to thank the Wellcome Trust for its financial and technical support—without which, this research collaboration would not be possible. While carrying out its work, the Lancet Countdown received invaluable technical advice and input from a number of individuals, including Ari Bernstein (Harvard University), Victoria Bignet (Stockholm Resilience Centre), Sarah Chaytor (University College London), Niheer Dasandi (University of Birmingham), Victor Galaz (Stockholm Resilience Centre), Janie Maxwell (University of Melbourne), Slava Mikhaylov (University College London), Neil Morisetti (University College London), Steve Pye (University College London), George Smeeton (Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit), Olivia Stevenson (University College London), Rebecca Taylor (University College London), and Koko Warner (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change). Administrative and communications support was provided by Richard Black (Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit), Pete Chalkley (Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit), Tom Fern (European Climate Foundation), Jack Fisher (Lancet Countdown), and Sarah Hurtes (European Climate Foundation). Researchers at Tsinghua University (YB, PG, YL, BX, JY, YY, and CY) wish to express their gratitude to the Cyrus Tang Foundation for financial support

The effects of integrated care: a systematic review of UK and international evidence

BACKGROUND: Healthcare systems around the world have been responding to the demand for better integrated models of service delivery. However, there is a need for further clarity regarding the effects of these new models of integration, and exploration regarding whether models introduced in other care systems may achieve similar outcomes in a UK national health service context. METHODS: The study aimed to carry out a systematic review of the effects of integration or co-ordination between healthcare services, or between health and social care on service delivery outcomes including effectiveness, efficiency and quality of care. Electronic databases including MEDLINE; Embase; PsycINFO; CINAHL; Science and Social Science Citation Indices; and the Cochrane Library were searched for relevant literature published between 2006 to March 2017. Online sources were searched for UK grey literature, and citation searching, and manual reference list screening were also carried out. Quantitative primary studies and systematic reviews, reporting actual or perceived effects on service delivery following the introduction of models of integration or co-ordination, in healthcare or health and social care settings in developed countries were eligible for inclusion. Strength of evidence for each outcome reported was analysed and synthesised using a four point comparative rating system of stronger, weaker, inconsistent or limited evidence. RESULTS: One hundred sixty seven studies were eligible for inclusion. Analysis indicated evidence of perceived improved quality of care, evidence of increased patient satisfaction, and evidence of improved access to care. Evidence was rated as either inconsistent or limited regarding all other outcomes reported, including system-wide impacts on primary care, secondary care, and health care costs. There were limited differences between outcomes reported by UK and international studies, and overall the literature had a limited consideration of effects on service users. CONCLUSIONS: Models of integrated care may enhance patient satisfaction, increase perceived quality of care, and enable access to services, although the evidence for other outcomes including service costs remains unclear. Indications of improved access may have important implications for services struggling to cope with increasing demand. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Prospero registration number: 42016037725

Abrupt intrinsic and extrinsic responses of southwestern Iberian vegetation to millennial-scale variability over the past 28 ka

We present new high-resolution pollen records combined with palaeoceanographic proxies from the same samples in deep-sea cores SHAK06-5K and MD01-2444 on the southwestern Iberian Margin, documenting regional vegetation responses to orbital and millennial-scale climate changes over the last 28 ka. The chronology of these records is based on high-resolution radiocarbon dates of monospecific samples of the planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides, measured from SHAK06-5K and MD01-2444 and aligned using an automated stratigraphical alignment method. Changes in temperate and steppe vegetation during Marine Isotope Stage 2 are closely coupled with sea surface temperature (SST) and global ice-volume changes. The peak expansion of thermophilous woodland between ~10.1 and 8.4 cal ka bp lags behind the boreal summer insolation maximum by ~2 ka, possibly arising from residual high-latitude ice-sheets into the Holocene. Rapid changes in pollen percentages are coeval with abrupt transitions in SSTs, precipitation and winter temperature at the onset and end of Heinrich Stadial 2, the ice-rafted debris event and end of Heinrich Stadial 1, and the onset of the Younger Dryas, suggesting extrinsically forced southwestern Iberian ecosystem changes by abrupt North Atlantic climate events. In contrast, the abrupt decline in thermophilous elements at ~7.8 cal ka bp indicates an intrinsically mediated abrupt vegetation response to the gradually declining boreal insolation, potentially resulting from the crossing of a seasonality of precipitation threshold

Preconception Care for People With Health Conditions: What Approaches Work, for Whom, and in What Circumstances? A Realist Review

doi: 10.1080/23293691.2022.213284