Presence-absence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability

Habitat suitability models can be generated using methods requiring information on species presence or species presence and absence. Knowledge of the predictive performance of such methods becomes a critical issue to establish their optimal scope of application for mapping current species distributions under different constraints. Here, we use breeding bird atlas data in Catalonia as a working example and attempt to analyse the relative performance of two methods: the Ecological Niche factor Analysis (ENFA) using presence data only and Generalised Linear Models (GLM) using presence/absence data. Models were run on a set of forest species with similar habitat requirements, but with varying occurrence rates (prevalence) and niche positions (marginality). Our results support the idea that GLM predictions are more accurate than those obtained with ENFA. This was particularly true when species were using available habitats proportionally to their suitability, making absence data reliable and useful to enhance model calibration. Species marginality in niche space was also correlated to predictive accuracy, i.e. species with less restricted ecological requirements were modelled less accurately than species with more restricted requirements. This pattern was irrespective of the method employed. Models for wide-ranging and tolerant species were more sensitive to absence data, suggesting that presence/absence methods may be particularly important for predicting distributions of this type of species. We conclude that modellers should consider that species ecological characteristics are critical in determining the accuracy of models and that it is difficult to predict generalist species distributions accurately and this is independent of the method used. Being based on distinct approaches regarding adjustment to data and data quality, habitat distribution modelling methods cover different application areas, making it difficult to identify one that should be universally applicable. Our results suggest however, that if absence data is available, methods using this information should be preferably used in most situations

An updated report on the distribution and conservation status of the endangered Cat’s Head Rockrose Helianthemum caput-felis (Magnoliopsida: Violales: Cistaceae) in Algeria

Helianthemum caput-felis is an Endangered plant species growing in the western Mediterranean basin. Its distribution is well known to the European and Moroccan regional populations, but no data from its distribution in Algeria have been reported since the middle 20th century. In this study, we provide an up-to-date report on the distribution of the species in Algeria. Fieldwork surveys in the classical locations were unsuccessful in finding the species, probably due to human habitat disturbances; however, a relict location was found in Ain-el-Kerma, near one of the historical known locations. As there is reduced distribution we point out the main causes that threaten the habitat of H. caput-felis according to IUCN threats classification scheme and we also propose to label it in the Algerian Red List as regionally Critically Endangered (CRreg B1ab(i,ii,iii, v)+2ab(i,ii,iii,v); C2a(i,ii); D).Helianthemum caput-felis es una planta amenazada del Mediterráneo occidental. Aunque la distribución de sus poblaciones regionales europeas y marroquís se conoce bien, no se ha publicado nada sobre su distribución en Argelia desde mediados del siglo XX. En este estudio presentamos una actualización de la distribución de la especie en Argelia. La visita a las localidades históricas no permitió encontrar la planta, seguramente debido a su extinción por el deterioro del hábitat. No obstante, encontramos una localidad en Ain-El-Kerma, cerca de una de las localidades históricas conocidas de esta especie. También indicamos las amenazas que afectan al hábitat y a la especie, y proponemos su inclusión en la Lista Roja de Argelia como “En Peligro Crítico” a nivel regional (CRreg B1ab(i,ii,iii,v)+2ab(i,ii,iii,v); C2a(i,ii); D)

Aortic root remodelling in competitive athletes.

BACKGROUND: Controversy remains about the cut-off limits for detecting aortic dilatation in athletes, particularly in large-sized individuals. The allometric scaling model has been used to obtain size-independent measurements in cardiovascular structures in the general population. AIM: The purpose of this study was to validate the use of allometric scaling in the measurement of the aortic root for competitive athletes and to offer reference values. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study that analyses the dimensions of aortic root found in the echocardiogram performed as part of pre-participation sports screening in competitive athletes between 2012-2015. Beta exponents were calculated for height and body surface area in the whole cohort. In order to establish whether a common exponent could be used in both genders the following model was assessed y = axb*exp(c*sex). If a common exponent could not be applied then sex-specific beta exponents were calculated. RESULTS: Two thousand and eighty-three athletes (64% men) were included, from a broad spectrum of 44 different sports disciplines, including basketball, volleyball and handball. The mean age was 18.2 ± 5.1 years (range 12-35 years) and all athletes were Caucasian, with a training load of 12.5 ± 5.4 h per week. Indexed aortic root dimension showed a correlation with ratiometric scaling by body surface area (r: -0.419) and generated size independence values with a very light correlation with height (r: -0.084); and with the allometric scaling by body surface area (r: -0.063) and height (r: -0.070). The absolute value of aortic root was higher in men than in women (p < 0.001). These differences were maintained with allometric scaling. CONCLUSION: Size-independent aortic root dimension values are provided using allometric scaling by body surface area and height in a large cohort of competitive athletes. Aortic root values were larger in men than in women, both in absolute values and after allometric scaling. The use of these indexed aortic reference ranges can be useful for the early detection of aortic pathologies

Mammography screening: views from women and primary care physicians in Crete

Background: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women and a leading cause of death from cancer in women in Europe. Although breast cancer incidence is on the rise worldwide, breast cancer mortality over the past 25 years has been stable or decreasing in some countries and a fall in breast cancer mortality rates in most European countries in the 1990s was reported by several studies, in contrast, in Greece have not reported these favourable trends. In Greece, the age-standardised incidence and mortality rate for breast cancer per 100.000 in 2006 was 81,8 and 21,7 and although it is lower than most other countries in Europe, the fall in breast cancer mortality that observed has not been as great as in other European countries. There is no national strategy for screening in this country. This study reports on the use of mammography among middleaged women in rural Crete and investigates barriers to mammography screening encountered by women and their primary care physicians. Methods: Design: Semi-structured individual interviews. Setting and participants: Thirty women between 45–65 years of age, with a mean age of 54,6 years, and standard deviation 6,8 from rural areas of Crete and 28 qualified primary care physicians, with a mean age of 44,7 years and standard deviation 7,0 serving this rural population. Main outcome measure: Qualitative thematic analysis. Results: Most women identified several reasons for not using mammography. These included poor knowledge of the benefits and indications for mammography screening, fear of pain during the procedure, fear of a serious diagnosis, embarrassment, stress while anticipating the results, cost and lack of physician recommendation. Physicians identified difficulties in scheduling an appointment as one reason women did not use mammography and both women and physicians identified distance from the screening site, transportation problems and the absence of symptoms as reasons for non-use. Conclusion: Women are inhibited from participating in mammography screening in rural Crete. The provision of more accessible screening services may improve this. However physician recommendation is important in overcoming women's inhibitions. Primary care physicians serving rural areas need to be aware of barriers preventing women from attending mammography screening and provide women with information and advice in a sensitive way so women can make informed decisions regarding breast caner screening

Therapeutic management of intestinal fibrosis induced by radiation therapy: from molecular profiling to new intervention strategies et vice et versa

Chronic toxicities of locoregional and systemic oncological treatments commonly develop in long-term cancer survivors. Amongst these toxicities, post-radiotherapeutic complications alter patient's quality of life. Reduction of exposure of normal tissues can be achieved by optimization of radiotherapy. Furthermore, understanding of the fibrogenic mechanisms has provided targets to prevent, mitigate, and reverse late radiation-induced damages. This mini-review shows how (i) global molecular studies using gene profiling can provide tools to develop new intervention strategies and (ii) how successful clinical trials, conducted in particular with combined pentoxifylline-vitamin E, can take benefice of biological and molecular evidences to improve our understanding of fibrogenic mechanisms, enhance the robustness of proposed treatments, and lead ultimately to better treatments for patient's benefice

Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

An assessment of relative habitat use as a metric for species' habitat association and degree of specialization

Corrigendum: Ecological Indicators, Volume 137, April 2022, Article number 108627, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108627.In order to understand species' sensitivity to habitat change, we must correctly determine if a species is associated with a habitat or not, and if it is associated, its degree of specialization for that habitat. However, definitions of species' habitat association and specialization are often static, categorical classifications that coarsely define species as either habitat specialists or generalists and can fail to account for potential temporal or spatial differences in association or specialization. In contrast, quantitative metrics can provide a more nuanced assessment, defining species' habitat associations and specialization along a continuous scale and accommodate for temporal or spatial variation, but these approaches are less widely used. Here we explore relative habitat use (RHU) as a metric for quantifying species' association with and degree of specialization for different habitat types. RHU determines the extent of a species' association with a given habitat by comparing its abundance in that habitat relative to its mean abundance across all other habitats. Using monitoring data for breeding birds across Europe from 1998 to 2017; we calculate RHU scores for 246 species for five habitat types and compared them to the literature-based classifications of their association with and specialization for each of these habitats. We also explored the temporal variation in species' RHU scores for each habitat and assessed how this varied according to association and degree of specialization. In general, species' RHU and literature-derived classifications were well aligned, as RHU scores for a given habitat increased in line with reported association and specialization. In addition, temporal variation in RHU scores were influenced by association and degree of specialization, with lower scores for those associated with, and those more specialized to, a given habitat. As a continuous metric, RHU allows a detailed assessment of species' association with and degree of specialization for different habitats that can be tailored to specific temporal and/or spatial requirements. It has the potential to be a valuable tool for identifying indicator species and in supporting the design, implementation and monitoring of conservation management actions.Peer reviewe

Wintering bird communities are tracking climate change faster than breeding communities

Global climate change is driving species' distributions towards the poles and mountain tops during both non-breeding and breeding seasons, leading to changes in the composition of natural communities. However, the degree of season differences in climate-driven community shifts has not been thoroughly investigated at large spatial scales. We compared the rates of change in the community composition during both winter (non-breeding season) and summer (breeding) and their relation to temperature changes. Based on continental-scale data from Europe and North America, we examined changes in bird community composition using the community temperature index (CTI) approach and compared the changes with observed regional temperature changes during 1980-2016. CTI increased faster in winter than in summer. This seasonal discrepancy is probably because individuals are less site-faithful in winter, and can more readily shift their wintering sites in response to weather in comparison to the breeding season. Regional long-term changes in community composition were positively associated with regional temperature changes during both seasons, but the pattern was only significant during summer due to high annual variability in winter communities. Annual changes in community composition were positively associated with the annual temperature changes during both seasons. Our results were broadly consistent across continents, suggesting some climate-driven restructuring in both European and North American avian communities. Because community composition has changed much faster during the winter than during the breeding season, it is important to increase our knowledge about climate-driven impacts during the less-studied non-breeding season.Peer reviewe