Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Similar decline in mortality rate of older persons with and without type 2 diabetes between 1993 and 2004 the Icelandic population-based Reykjavik and AGES-Reykjavik cohort studies.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.A decline in mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality has led to increased life expectancy in the Western world in recent decades. At the same time, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, a disease associated with a twofold excess risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality, has been increasing. The objective of this study was to estimate the secular trend of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates in two population-based cohorts of older persons, with and without type 2 diabetes, examined 11 years apart.1506 participants (42% men) from the population-based Reykjavik Study, examined during 1991-1996 (median 1993), mean age 75.0 years, and 4814 participants (43% men) from the AGES-Reykjavik Study, examined during 2002-2006 (median 2004), mean age 77.2 years, age range in both cohorts 70-87 years. The main outcome measures were age-specific mortality rates due to cardiovascular disease and all causes, over two consecutive 5.7- and 5.3-year follow-up periods.A 32% decline in cardiovascular mortality rate and a 19% decline in all-cause mortality rate were observed between 1993 and 2004. The decline was greater in those with type 2 diabetes, as illustrated by the decline in the adjusted hazard ratio of cardiovascular mortality in individuals with diabetes compared to those without diabetes, from 1.88 (95% CI 1.24-2.85) in 1993 to 1.46 (95% CI 1.11-1.91) in 2004. We also observed a concurrent decrease in major cardiovascular risk factors in both those with and without diabetes. A higher proportion of persons with diabetes received glucose-lowering, hypertensive and lipid-lowering medication in 2004.A decline in cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates was observed in older persons during the period 1993-2004, in both those with and without type 2 diabetes. This decline may be partly explained by improvements in cardiovascular risk factors and medical treatment over the period studied. However, type 2 diabetes still persists as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular mortality.National Institute of Health/N01-AG-1-2100 NIA Intramural Research Program Icelandic Heart Association (Hjartavernd) Icelandic Parliament (Althingi

Persistent Chlamydia Pneumoniae serology is related to decline in lung function in women but not in men. Effect of persistent Chlamydia pneumoniae infection on lung function

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Chlamydia pneumoniae </it>(C pn) infection causes an acute inflammation in the respiratory system that may become persistent, but little is known about the long-term respiratory effects of C pn infections. Aim: To estimate the long term respiratory effects of C pn with change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁) and forced vital capacity (FVC) as a main outcome variable.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study comprised of 1109 subjects (500 men and 609 women, mean age 28 ± 6 years) that participated in the Reykjavik Heart Study of the Young. Spirometry and blood samples for measurements of IgG antibodies for C pn were done at inclusion and at the end of the follow-up period (mean follow-up time 27 ± 4 years).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Having IgG against C pn at both examinations was significantly associated to a larger decrease in FEV₁(6 mL/year) and FVC (7 mL/year) in women but not in men. In women the association between C pn and larger FEV₁decline was only found in women that smoked at baseline where having C pn IgG was associated with 10 mL/year decline compared to smokers without C pn IgG. These results were still significant after adjustment for age, smoking and change in body weight.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results indicate that persistent C pn serology is related to increased decline in lung function in women but not in men. This effect was, however, primarily found in smoking women. This study is a further indication that the pathophysiological process leading to lung impairment may differ between men and women.</p

Effect of genetically low 25-hydroxyvitamin D on mortality risk: Mendelian randomization analysis in 3 large European cohorts

Source at https://doi.org/10.3390/nu11010074.The aim of this study was to determine if increased mortality associated with low levels of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) reflects a causal relationship by using a Mendelian randomisation (MR) approach with genetic variants in the vitamin D synthesis pathway. Individual participant data from three European cohorts were harmonized with standardization of 25(OH)D according to the Vitamin D Standardization Program. Most relevant single nucleotide polymorphisms of the genes CYP2R1 (rs12794714, rs10741657) and DHCR7/NADSYN1 (rs12785878, rs11234027), were combined in two allelic scores. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used with the ratio estimator and the delta method for calculating the hazards ratio (HR) and standard error of genetically determined 25(OH)D effect on all-cause mortality. We included 10,501 participants (50.1% females, 67.1±10.1 years) of whom 4003 died during a median follow-up of 10.4 years. The observed adjusted HR for all-cause mortality per decrease in 25(OH)D by 20 nmol/L was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.15–1.25). The HR per 20 nmol/L decrease in genetically determined 25(OH)D was 1.32 (95% CI: 0.80–2.24) and 1.35 (95% CI of 0.81 to 2.37) based on the two scores. In conclusion, the results of this MR study in a combined sample from three European cohort studies provide further support for a causal relationship between vitamin D deficiency and increased all-cause mortality. However, as the current study, even with ~10,000 participants, was underpowered for the study of the effect of the allele score on mortality, larger studies on genetics and mortality are needed to improve the precision

Analysing the Large Decline in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in the Icelandic Population Aged 25-74 between the Years 1981 and 2006

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s. We examined how much of the decrease between 1981 and 2006 could be attributed to medical and surgical treatments and how much to changes in cardiovascular risk factors. METHODOLOGY: The previously validated IMPACT CHD mortality model was applied to the Icelandic population. The data sources were official statistics, national quality registers, published trials and meta-analyses, clinical audits and a series of national population surveys. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Between 1981 and 2006, CHD mortality rates in Iceland decreased by 80% in men and women aged 25 to 74 years, which resulted in 295 fewer deaths in 2006 than if the 1981 rates had persisted. Incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) decreased by 66% and resulted in some 500 fewer incident MI cases per year, which is a major determinant of possible deaths from MI. Based on the IMPACT model approximately 73% (lower and upper bound estimates: 54%-93%) of the mortality decrease was attributable to risk factor reductions: cholesterol 32%; smoking 22%; systolic blood pressure 22%, and physical inactivity 5% with adverse trends for diabetes (-5%), and obesity (-4%). Approximately 25% (lower and upper bound estimates: 8%-40%) of the mortality decrease was attributable to treatments in individuals: secondary prevention 8%; heart failure treatments 6%; acute coronary syndrome treatments 5%; revascularisation 3%; hypertension treatments 2%, and statins 0.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Almost three quarters of the large CHD mortality decrease in Iceland between 1981 and 2006 was attributable to reductions in major cardiovascular risk factors in the population. These findings emphasize the value of a comprehensive prevention strategy that promotes tobacco control and a healthier diet to reduce incidence of MI and highlights the potential importance of effective, evidence based medical treatments

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies from the CHARGE consortium identifies common variants associated with carotid intima media thickness and plaque

Carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and plaque determined by ultrasonography are established measures of subclinical atherosclerosis that each predicts future cardiovascular disease events. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data in 31,211 participants of European ancestry from nine large studies in the setting of the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium. We then sought additional evidence to support our findings among 11,273 individuals using data from seven additional studies. In the combined meta-analysis, we identified three genomic regions associated with common carotid intima media thickness and two different regions associated with the presence of carotid plaque (P < 5 × 10 -8). The associated SNPs mapped in or near genes related to cellular signaling, lipid metabolism and blood pressure homeostasis, and two of the regions were associated with coronary artery disease (P < 0.006) in the Coronary Artery Disease Genome-Wide Replication and Meta-Analysis (CARDIoGRAM) consortium. Our findings may provide new insight into pathways leading to subclinical atherosclerosis and subsequent cardiovascular events

Association Between Interstitial Lung Abnormalities and All-Cause Mortality.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.Interstitial lung abnormalities have been associated with lower 6-minute walk distance, diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide, and total lung capacity. However, to our knowledge, an association with mortality has not been previously investigated.To investigate whether interstitial lung abnormalities are associated with increased mortality.Prospective cohort studies of 2633 participants from the FHS (Framingham Heart Study; computed tomographic [CT] scans obtained September 2008-March 2011), 5320 from the AGES-Reykjavik Study (Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility; recruited January 2002-February 2006), 2068 from the COPDGene Study (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; recruited November 2007-April 2010), and 1670 from ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints; between December 2005-December 2006).Interstitial lung abnormality status as determined by chest CT evaluation.All-cause mortality over an approximate 3- to 9-year median follow-up time. Cause-of-death information was also examined in the AGES-Reykjavik cohort.Interstitial lung abnormalities were present in 177 (7%) of the 2633 participants from FHS, 378 (7%) of 5320 from AGES-Reykjavik, 156 (8%) of 2068 from COPDGene, and in 157 (9%) of 1670 from ECLIPSE. Over median follow-up times of approximately 3 to 9 years, there were more deaths (and a greater absolute rate of mortality) among participants with interstitial lung abnormalities when compared with those who did not have interstitial lung abnormalities in the following cohorts: 7% vs 1% in FHS (6% difference [95% CI, 2% to 10%]), 56% vs 33% in AGES-Reykjavik (23% difference [95% CI, 18% to 28%]), and 11% vs 5% in ECLIPSE (6% difference [95% CI, 1% to 11%]). After adjustment for covariates, interstitial lung abnormalities were associated with a higher risk of death in the FHS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.7 [95% CI, 1.1 to 6.5]; P = .03), AGES-Reykjavik (HR, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2 to 1.4]; P < .001), COPDGene (HR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.8]; P = .01), and ECLIPSE (HR, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.0]; P = .02) cohorts. In the AGES-Reykjavik cohort, the higher rate of mortality could be explained by a higher rate of death due to respiratory disease, specifically pulmonary fibrosis.In 4 separate research cohorts, interstitial lung abnormalities were associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality. The clinical implications of this association require further investigation.National Institutes of Health (NIH) T32 HL007633 Icelandic Research Fund 141513-051 Landspitali Scientific Fund A-2015-030 National Cancer Institute grant 1K23CA157631 NIH K08 HL097029 R01 HL113264 R21 HL119902 K25 HL104085 R01 HL116931 R01 HL116473 K01 HL118714 R01 HL089897 R01 HL089856 N01-AG-1-2100 HHSN27120120022C P01 HL105339 P01 HL114501 R01 HL107246 R01 HL122464 R01 HL111024 National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study contract N01-HC-2519.5 GlaxoSmithKline NCT00292552 5C0104960 National Institute on Aging (NIA) grant 27120120022C NIA Intramural Research Program, Hjartavernd (the Icelandic Heart Association) Althingi (the Icelandic Parliament) NIA 27120120022

Vitamin D and mortality: Individual participant data meta-analysis of standardized 25-hydroxyvitamin D in 26916 individuals from a European consortium

Source at http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0170791Background:Vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for mortality but previous meta-analyses lacked standardization of laboratory methods for 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and used aggregate data instead of individual participant data (IPD). We therefore performed an IPD meta-analysis on the association between standardized serum 25(OH)D and mortality.Methods:In a European consortium of eight prospective studies, including seven general population cohorts, we used the Vitamin D Standardization Program (VDSP) protocols to standardize 25(OH)D data. Meta-analyses using a one step procedure on IPD were performed to study associations of 25(OH)D with all-cause mortality as the primary outcome, and with cardiovascular and cancer mortality as secondary outcomes. This meta-analysis is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02438488.Findings:We analysed 26916 study participants (median age 61.6 years, 58% females) with a median 25(OH)D concentration of 53.8 nmol/L. During a median follow-up time of 10.5 years, 6802 persons died. Compared to participants with 25(OH)D concentrations of 75 to 99.99 nmol/L, the adjusted hazard ratios (with 95% confidence interval) for mortality in the 25(OH)D groups with 40 to 49.99, 30 to 39.99, and Interpretation:In the first IPD meta-analysis using standardized measurements of 25(OH)D we observed an association between low 25(OH)D and increased risk of all-cause mortality. It is of public health interest to evaluate whether treatment of vitamin D deficiency prevents premature deaths

GWAS of longevity in CHARGE consortium confirms APOE and FOXO3 candidacy.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.The genetic contribution to longevity in humans has been estimated to range from 15% to 25%. Only two genes, APOE and FOXO3, have shown association with longevity in multiple independent studies.We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies including 6,036 longevity cases, age ≥90 years, and 3,757 controls that died between ages 55 and 80 years. We additionally attempted to replicate earlier identified single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with longevity.In our meta-analysis, we found suggestive evidence for the association of SNPs near CADM2 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.81; p value = 9.66 × 10(-7)) and GRIK2 (odds ratio = 1.24; p value = 5.09 × 10(-8)) with longevity. When attempting to replicate findings earlier identified in genome-wide association studies, only the APOE locus consistently replicated. In an additional look-up of the candidate gene FOXO3, we found that an earlier identified variant shows a highly significant association with longevity when including published data with our meta-analysis (odds ratio = 1.17; p value = 1.85×10(-10)).We did not identify new genome-wide significant associations with longevity and did not replicate earlier findings except for APOE and FOXO3. Our inability to find new associations with survival to ages ≥90 years because longevity represents multiple complex traits with heterogeneous genetic underpinnings, or alternatively, that longevity may be regulated by rare variants that are not captured by standard genome-wide genotyping and imputation of common variants.Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research NWO Investments 175.010.2005.011 911-03-012 Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly 014-93-015 RIDE2 Netherlands Genomics Initiative (NGI)/Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) 050-060-810 Erasmus Medical Center Erasmus University, Rotterdam Netherlands Organization for the Health Research and Development (ZonMw) Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly (RIDE) Ministry of Education, Culture and Science Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports European Commission (DG XII) Municipality of Rotterdam National Institutes of Health National Institute on Aging (NIA) R01 AG005407 R01 AR35582 R01 AR35583 R01 AR35584 R01 AG005394 R01 AG027574 R01 AG027576 AG023629 R01AG29451 U01AG009740 RC2 AG036495 RC4 AG039029 P30AG10161 R01AG17917 R01AG15819 R01AG30146 U01-AG023755 U19-AG023122 NHLBI HHSN 268201200036C HHSN268200800007C N01HC55222 N01HC85079 N01HC85080 N01HC85081 N01HC85082 N01HC85083 N01HC 85086 HL080295 HL087652 HL105756 National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, CTSI UL1TR000124 National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Disease Diabetes Research Center (DRC) DK063491 National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS) National Center for Research Resources (NCRR) NIH Roadmap for Medical Research U01 AR45580 U01 AR45614 U01 AR45632 U01 AR45647 U01 AR45654 U01 AR45583 U01 AG18197 U01-AG027810 UL1 RR024140 NIAMS R01-AR051124 RC2ARO58973 National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study N01-HC-25195 Affymetrix, Inc N02-HL-6-4278 Robert Dawson Evans Endowment of the Department of Medicine at Boston University School of Medicine Boston Medical Center National Institute of Arthritis, Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases NIA R01 AR/AG 41398 NIH N01-AG-12100 NIA Intramural Research Program Hjartavernd (the Icelandic Heart Association) Althingi (the Icelandic Parliament) Illinois Department of Public Health Translational Genomics Research Institute Italian Ministry of Health ICS110.1/RF97.71 U.S. National Institute on Aging 263 MD 9164 263 MD 821336 Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute on Aging 1R01AG028321 1R01HL09257