A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP

In this paper we introduce a Bayesian framework, which is explicit about prior assumptions, for using model ensembles and observations together to constrain future climate change. The emergent constraint approach has seen broad application in recent years, including studies constraining the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) using the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP). Most of these studies were based on ordinary least squares (OLS) fits between a variable of the climate state, such as tropical temperature, and climate sensitivity. Using our Bayesian method, and considering the LGM and mPWP separately, we obtain values of ECS of 2.7 K (0.6–5.2, 5th–95th percentiles) using the PMIP2, PMIP3, and PMIP4 datasets for the LGM and 2.3 K (0.5–4.4) with the PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 datasets for the mPWP. Restricting the ensembles to include only the most recent version of each model, we obtain 2.7 K (0.7–5.2) using the LGM and 2.3 K (0.4–4.5) using the mPWP. An advantage of the Bayesian framework is that it is possible to combine the two periods assuming they are independent, whereby we obtain a tighter constraint of 2.5 K (0.8–4.0) using the restricted ensemble. We have explored the sensitivity to our assumptions in the method, including considering structural uncertainty, and in the choice of models, and this leads to 95 % probability of climate sensitivity mostly below 5 K and only exceeding 6 K in a single and most uncertain case assuming a large structural uncertainty. The approach is compared with other approaches based on OLS, a Kalman filter method, and an alternative Bayesian method. An interesting implication of this work is that OLS-based emergent constraints on ECS generate tighter uncertainty estimates, in particular at the lower end, an artefact due to a flatter regression line in the case of lack of correlation. Although some fundamental challenges related to the use of emergent constraints remain, this paper provides a step towards a better foundation for their potential use in future probabilistic estimations of climate sensitivity

Multiplicity dependence of light (anti-)nuclei production in p–Pb collisions at sNN=5.02 TeV

The measurement of the deuteron and anti-deuteron production in the rapidity range −1 < y < 0 as a function of transverse momentum and event multiplicity in p–Pb collisions at √sNN = 5.02 TeV is presented. (Anti-)deuterons are identified via their specific energy loss dE/dx and via their time-of- flight. Their production in p–Pb collisions is compared to pp and Pb–Pb collisions and is discussed within the context of thermal and coalescence models. The ratio of integrated yields of deuterons to protons (d/p) shows a significant increase as a function of the charged-particle multiplicity of the event starting from values similar to those observed in pp collisions at low multiplicities and approaching those observed in Pb–Pb collisions at high multiplicities. The mean transverse particle momenta are extracted from the deuteron spectra and the values are similar to those obtained for p and particles. Thus, deuteron spectra do not follow mass ordering. This behaviour is in contrast to the trend observed for non-composite particles in p–Pb collisions. In addition, the production of the rare 3He and 3He nuclei has been studied. The spectrum corresponding to all non-single diffractive p-Pb collisions is obtained in the rapidity window −1 < y < 0 and the pT-integrated yield dN/dy is extracted. It is found that the yields of protons, deuterons, and 3He, normalised by the spin degeneracy factor, follow an exponential decrease with mass number

Production of charged pions, kaons, and (anti-)protons in Pb-Pb and inelastic pppp collisions at sNN\sqrt {s_{NN}} = 5.02 TeV

International audienceMid-rapidity production of $\pi^{\pm}$, $\rm{K}^{\pm}$ and ($\bar{\rm{p}}$)p measured by the ALICE experiment at the LHC, in Pb-Pb and inelastic pp collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV, is presented. The invariant yields are measured over a wide transverse momentum ($p_{\rm{T}}$) range from hundreds of MeV/$c$ up to 20 GeV/$c$. The results in Pb-Pb collisions are presented as a function of the collision centrality, in the range 0$-$90%. The comparison of the $p_{\rm{T}}$-integrated particle ratios, i.e. proton-to-pion (p/$\pi$) and kaon-to-pion (K/$\pi$) ratios, with similar measurements in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}}$ = 2.76 TeV show no significant energy dependence. Blast-wave fits of the $p_{\rm{T}}$ spectra indicate that in the most central collisions radial flow is slightly larger at 5.02 TeV with respect to 2.76 TeV. Particle ratios (p/$\pi$, K/$\pi$) as a function of $p_{\rm{T}}$ show pronounced maxima at $p_{\rm{T}}$ $\approx$ 3 GeV/$c$ in central Pb-Pb collisions. At high $p_{\rm{T}}$, particle ratios at 5.02 TeV are similar to those measured in pp collisions at the same energy and in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}}$ = 2.76 TeV. Using the pp reference spectra measured at the same collision energy of 5.02 TeV, the nuclear modification factors for the different particle species are derived. Within uncertainties, the nuclear modification factor is particle species independent for high $p_{\rm{T}}$ and compatible with measurements at $\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}}$ = 2.76 TeV. The results are compared to state-of-the-art model calculations, which are found to describe the observed trends satisfactorily

Multiplicity dependence of (multi-)strange hadron production in proton-proton collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

The production rates and the transverse momentum distribution of strange hadrons at mid-rapidity ($\left| y\right| < 0.5$) are measured in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV as a function of the charged particle multiplicity, using the ALICE detector at the LHC. The production rates of $\mathrm{K}^{0}_{S}$, $\Lambda$, $\Xi$, and $\Omega$ increase with the multiplicity faster than what is reported for inclusive charged particles. The increase is found to be more pronounced for hadrons with a larger strangeness content. Possible auto-correlations between the charged particles and the strange hadrons are evaluated by measuring the event-activity with charged particle multiplicity estimators covering different pseudorapidity regions. When comparing to lower energy results, the yields of strange hadrons are found to depend only on the mid-rapidity charged particle multiplicity. Several features of the data are reproduced qualitatively by general purpose QCD Monte Carlo models that take into account the effect of densely-packed QCD strings in high multiplicity collisions. However, none of the tested models reproduce the data quantitatively. This work corroborates and extends the ALICE findings on strangeness production in proton-proton collisions at 7 TeV

Measurement of the low-energy antideuteron inelastic cross section

In this Letter, we report the first measurement of the inelastic cross section for antideuteron-nucleus interactions at low particle momenta, covering a range of 0.3 ≤ p < 4 GeV/c. The measurement is carried out using p-Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon pair of $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV, recorded with the ALICE detector at the CERN LHC and utilizing the detector material as an absorber for antideuterons and antiprotons. The extracted raw primary antiparticle-to-particle ratios are compared to the results from detailed ALICE simulations based on the geant4 toolkit for the propagation of (anti)particles through the detector material. The analysis of the raw primary (anti)proton spectra serves as a benchmark for this study, since their hadronic interaction cross sections are well constrained experimentally. The first measurement of the inelastic cross section for antideuteron-nucleus interactions averaged over the ALICE detector material with atomic mass numbers ⟨A⟩ = 17.4 and 31.8 is obtained. The measured inelastic cross section points to a possible excess with respect to the Glauber model parametrization used in geant4 in the lowest momentum interval of 0.3 ≤ p < 0.47 GeV/c up to a factor 2.1. This result is relevant for the understanding of antimatter propagation and the contributions to antinuclei production from cosmic ray interactions within the interstellar medium. In addition, the momentum range covered by this measurement is of particular importance to evaluate signal predictions for indirect dark-matter searches