Outcome after intracranial hemorrhage under dabigatran and reversal with idarucizumab versus under vitamin-K-antagonists – the RIC-ICH study

BackgroundIntracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is a rare but serious side effect associated with the use of oral anticoagulants, such as dabigatran. The specific reversal agent for dabigatran, idarucizumab, is available for the management of individuals with ICH. The aim of this study was to provide real-world evidence on patients with ICH and effective treatment with dabigatran and reversal with idarucizumab in clinical routine compared to those under effective treatment with vitamin-K-antagonist (VKA).MethodsRegistration of Idarucizumab for Patients with IntraCranial Hemorrhage (RIC-ICH) is a non-interventional study conducted in 22 German stroke units that prospectively enrolled dabigatran patients treated with idarucizumab. Retrospective data from VKA patients served as reference population. Main objective was in-hospital mortality. Further objectives included change in bleeding volume, stroke severity, and functional status.ResultIn-hospital mortality was 26.7% in 15 dabigatran and 27.3% in 88 VKA patients (hazard ratio 1.00, 95% CI 0.29–2.60). In patients with bleeding volume > 60 ml, mortality was lower in the dabigatran group (N = 6, 33%) compared to the VKA group (N = 15, 67%; HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.04–0.96). No differences were observed in secondary endpoints between dabigatran and VKA patients.ConclusionThese results, based on data from routine clinical practice, suggest that in-hospital mortality after idarucizumab treatment is comparable to that in patients pretreated with VKA. Due to the low precision of estimates, the results must be interpreted with caution

Risk prediction for estrogen receptor-specific breast cancers in two large prospective cohorts

Background: Few published breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models consider the heterogeneity of predictor variables between estrogen-receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) tumors. Using data from two large cohorts, we examined whether modeling this heterogeneity could improve prediction. Methods: We built two models, for ER+ (ModelER+) and ER- tumors (ModelER-), respectively, in 281,330 women (51% postmenopausal at recruitment) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (the agreement between predicted and observed tumor risks) were assessed both internally and externally in 82,319 postmenopausal women from the Women’s Health Initiative study. We performed decision curve analysis to compare ModelER+ and the Gail model (ModelGail) regarding their applicability in risk assessment for chemoprevention. Results: Parity, number of full-term pregnancies, age at first full-term pregnancy and body height were only associated with ER+ tumors. Menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, hormone replacement therapy, postmenopausal body mass index, and alcohol intake were homogeneously associated with ER+ and ER- tumors. Internal validation yielded a C-statistic of 0.64 for ModelER+ and 0.59 for ModelER-. External validation reduced the C-statistic of ModelER+ (0.59) and ModelGail (0.57). In external evaluation of calibration, ModelER+ outperformed the ModelGail: the former led to a 9% overestimation of the risk of ER+ tumors, while the latter yielded a 22% underestimation of the overall BC risk. Compared with the treat-all strategy, ModelER+ produced equal or higher net benefits irrespective of the benefit-to-harm ratio of chemoprevention, while ModelGail did not produce higher net benefits unless the benefit-to-harm ratio was below 50. The clinical applicability, i.e. the area defined by the net benefit curve and the treat-all and treat-none strategies, was 12.7 × 10− 6 for ModelER+ and 3.0 × 10− 6 for ModelGail. Conclusions: Modeling heterogeneous epidemiological risk factors might yield little improvement in BC risk prediction. Nevertheless, a model specifically predictive of ER+ tumor risk could be more applicable than an omnibus model in risk assessment for chemoprevention

Theoretical potential for endometrial cancer prevention through primary risk factor modification: Estimates from the EPIC cohort

Endometrial cancer (EC) incidence rates vary ~10-fold worldwide, in part due to variation in EC risk factor profiles. Using an EC risk model previously developed in the European EPIC cohort, we evaluated the prevention potential of modified EC risk factor patterns and whether differences in EC incidence between a European population and low-risk countries can be explained by differences in these patterns. Predicted EC incidence rates were estimated over 10 years of follow-up for the cohort before and after modifying risk factor profiles. Risk factors considered were: body mass index (BMI, kg/m2 ), use of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) and oral contraceptives (OC) (potentially modifiable); and, parity, ages at first birth, menarche and menopause (environmentally conditioned, but not readily modifiable). Modeled alterations in BMI (to all ≤23 kg/m2 ) and HT use (to all non-HT users) profiles resulted in a 30% reduction in predicted EC incidence rates; individually, longer duration of OC use (to all ≥10 years) resulted in a 42.5% reduction. Modeled changes in not readily modifiable exposures (i.e., those not contributing to prevention potential) resulted in ≤24.6% reduction in predicted EC incidence. Women in the lowest decile of a risk score based on the evaluated exposures had risk similar to a low risk countries; however, this was driven by relatively long use of OCs (median = 23 years). Our findings support avoidance of overweight BMI and of HT use as prevention strategies for EC in a European population; OC use must be considered in the context of benefits and risks

Comparison of prognostic models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic individuals: a systematic literature review and external validation in the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studies

Objective: To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts. Design: Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability). Results: The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC. Conclusion: Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained

CA19-9 and apolipoprotein-A2 isoforms as detection markers for pancreatic cancer: a prospective evaluation.

Recently, we identified unique processing patterns of apolipoprotein A2 (ApoA2) in patients with pancreatic cancer. Our study provides a first prospective evaluation of an ApoA2 isoform ("ApoA2-ATQ/AT"), alone and in combination with carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), as an early detection biomarker for pancreatic cancer. We performed ELISA measurements of CA19-9 and ApoA2-ATQ/AT in 156 patients with pancreatic cancer and 217 matched controls within the European EPIC cohort, using plasma samples collected up to 60 months prior to diagnosis. The detection discrimination statistics were calculated for risk scores by strata of lag-time. For CA19-9, in univariate marker analyses, C-statistics to distinguish future pancreatic cancer patients from cancer-free individuals were 0.80 for plasma taken ≤6 months before diagnosis, and 0.71 for >6-18 months; for ApoA2-ATQ/AT, C-statistics were 0.62, and 0.65, respectively. Joint models based on ApoA2-ATQ/AT plus CA19-9 significantly improved discrimination within >6-18 months (C = 0.74 vs. 0.71 for CA19-9 alone, p = 0.022) and ≤ 18 months (C = 0.75 vs. 0.74, p = 0.022). At 98% specificity, and for lag times of ≤6, >6-18 or ≤ 18 months, sensitivities were 57%, 36% and 43% for CA19-9 combined with ApoA2-ATQ/AT, respectively, vs. 50%, 29% and 36% for CA19-9 alone. Compared to CA19-9 alone, the combination of CA19-9 and ApoA2-ATQ/AT may improve detection of pancreatic cancer up to 18 months prior to diagnosis under usual care, and may provide a useful first measure for pancreatic cancer detection prior to imaging

A prospective evaluation of early detection biomarkers for ovarian cancer in the European EPIC cohort

Purpose: About 60% of ovarian cancers are diagnosed at late stage, when 5-year survival is less than 30% in contrast to 90% for local disease. This has prompted search for early detection biomarkers. For initial testing, specimens taken months or years before ovarian cancer diagnosis are the best source of information to evaluate earlydetection biomarkers. Here we evaluate the most promising ovarian cancer screening biomarkers in prospectively collected samples from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Experimental Design: We measured CA125, HE4, CA72.4, and CA15.3 in 810 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 1,939 controls. We calculated the sensitivity at 95% and 98% specificity as well as area under the receiver operator curve (C-statistic) for each marker individually and in combination. In addition, we evaluated marker performance by stage at diagnosis and time between blood draw and diagnosis. Results: We observed the best discrimination between cases and controls within 6 months of diagnosis for CA125 (C-statistic = 0.92), then HE4 (0.84), CA72.4 (0.77), and CA15.3 (0.73). Marker performance declined with longer time between blood draw and diagnosis and for earlier staged disease. However, assessment of discriminatory ability at early stage was limited by small numbers. Combinations of markers performed modestly, but significantly better than any single marker. Conclusions: CA125 remains the single best marker for the early detection of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, but can be slightly improved by combining with other markers. Identifying novel markers for ovarian cancer will require studies including larger numbers of early-stage cases. (C) 2016 AACR

Genetic Variability of the mTOR Pathway and Prostate Cancer Risk in the European Prospective Investigation on Cancer (EPIC)

The mTOR (mammalian target of rapamycin) signal transduction pathway integrates various signals, regulating ribosome biogenesis and protein synthesis as a function of available energy and amino acids, and assuring an appropriate coupling of cellular proliferation with increases in cell size. In addition, recent evidence has pointed to an interplay between the mTOR and p53 pathways. We investigated the genetic variability of 67 key genes in the mTOR pathway and in genes of the p53 pathway which interact with mTOR. We tested the association of 1,084 tagging SNPs with prostate cancer risk in a study of 815 prostate cancer cases and 1,266 controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We chose the SNPs (n = 11) with the strongest association with risk (p<0.01) and sought to replicate their association in an additional series of 838 prostate cancer cases and 943 controls from EPIC. In the joint analysis of first and second phase two SNPs of the PRKCI gene showed an association with risk of prostate cancer (ORallele = 0.85, 95% CI 0.78–0.94, p = 1.3×10−3 for rs546950 and ORallele = 0.84, 95% CI 0.76–0.93, p = 5.6×10−4 for rs4955720). We confirmed this in a meta-analysis using as replication set the data from the second phase of our study jointly with the first phase of the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) project. In conclusion, we found an association with prostate cancer risk for two SNPs belonging to PRKCI, a gene which is frequently overexpressed in various neoplasms, including prostate cancer

Adherence to the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research cancer prevention recommendations and risk of in situ breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.

BACKGROUND: Even though in situ breast cancer (BCIS) accounts for a large proportion of the breast cancers diagnosed, few studies have investigated potential risk factors for BCIS. Their results suggest that some established risk factors for invasive breast cancer have a similar impact on BCIS risk, but large population-based studies on lifestyle factors and BCIS risk are lacking. Thus, we investigated the association between lifestyle and BCIS risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. METHODS: Lifestyle was operationalized by a score reflecting the adherence to the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) cancer prevention recommendations. The recommendations utilized in these analyses were the ones pertinent to healthy body weight, physical activity, consumption of plant-based foods, energy-dense foods, red and processed meat, and sugary drinks and alcohol, as well as the recommendation on breastfeeding. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between lifestyle score and BCIS risk. The results were presented as hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: After an overall median follow-up time of 14.9 years, 1277 BCIS cases were diagnosed. Greater adherence to the WCRF/AICR cancer prevention recommendations was not associated with BCIS risk (HR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.93-1.03; per one unit of increase; multivariable model). An inverse association between the lifestyle score and BCIS risk was observed in study centers, where participants were recruited mainly via mammographic screening and attended additional screening throughout follow-up (HR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.73-0.99), but not in the remaining ones (HR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.94-1.05). CONCLUSIONS: While we did not observe an overall association between lifestyle and BCIS risk, our results indicate that lifestyle is associated with BCIS risk among women recruited via screening programs and with regular screening participation. This suggests that a true inverse association between lifestyle habits and BCIS risk in the overall cohort may have been masked by a lack of information on screening attendance. The potential inverse association between lifestyle and BCIS risk in our analyses is consistent with the inverse associations between lifestyle scores and breast cancer risk reported from previous studies

Correlates of circulating ovarian cancer early detection markers and their contribution to discrimination of early detection models: results from the EPIC cohort.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer early detection markers CA125, CA15.3, HE4, and CA72.4 vary between healthy women, limiting their utility for screening. METHODS: We evaluated cross-sectional relationships between lifestyle and reproductive factors and these markers among controls (n = 1910) from a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Improvements in discrimination of prediction models adjusting for correlates of the markers were evaluated among postmenopausal women in the nested case-control study (n = 590 cases). Generalized linear models were used to calculate geometric means of CA125, CA15.3, and HE4. CA72.4 above vs. below limit of detection was evaluated using logistic regression. Early detection prediction was modeled using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: CA125 concentrations were lower, and CA15.3 higher, in post- vs. premenopausal women (p ≤ 0.02). Among postmenopausal women, CA125 was higher among women with higher parity and older age at menopause (ptrend ≤ 0.02), but lower among women reporting oophorectomy, hysterectomy, ever use of estrogen-only hormone therapy, or current smoking (p < 0.01). CA15.3 concentrations were higher among heavier women and in former smokers (p ≤ 0.03). HE4 was higher with older age at blood collection and in current smokers, and inversely associated with OC use duration, parity, and older age at menopause (≤ 0.02). No associations were observed with CA72.4. Adjusting for correlates of the markers in prediction models did not improve the discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insights into sources of variation in ovarian cancer early detection markers in healthy women and informs about the utility of individualizing marker cutpoints based on epidemiologic factors

Common germline polymorphisms associated with breast cancer-specific survival

Abstract Introduction Previous studies have identified common germline variants nominally associated with breast cancer survival. These associations have not been widely replicated in further studies. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of previously reported SNPs with breast cancer-specific survival using data from a pooled analysis of eight breast cancer survival genome-wide association studies (GWAS) from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Methods A literature review was conducted of all previously published associations between common germline variants and three survival outcomes: breast cancer-specific survival, overall survival and disease-free survival. All associations that reached the nominal significance level of P value <0.05 were included. Single nucleotide polymorphisms that had been previously reported as nominally associated with at least one survival outcome were evaluated in the pooled analysis of over 37,000 breast cancer cases for association with breast cancer-specific survival. Previous associations were evaluated using a one-sided test based on the reported direction of effect. Results Fifty-six variants from 45 previous publications were evaluated in the meta-analysis. Fifty-four of these were evaluated in the full set of 37,954 breast cancer cases with 2,900 events and the two additional variants were evaluated in a reduced sample size of 30,000 samples in order to ensure independence from the previously published studies. Five variants reached nominal significance (P <0.05) in the pooled GWAS data compared to 2.8 expected under the null hypothesis. Seven additional variants were associated (P <0.05) with ER-positive disease. Conclusions Although no variants reached genome-wide significance (P <5 x 10−8), these results suggest that there is some evidence of association between candidate common germline variants and breast cancer prognosis. Larger studies from multinational collaborations are necessary to increase the power to detect associations, between common variants and prognosis, at more stringent significance levels