Estimating the cost-effectiveness of brief interventions for heavy drinking in primary health care across Europe

Background Screening and Brief Interventions for alcohol are an effective public health measure to tackle alcohol-related harm, however relatively few countries across the European Union (EU) have implemented them widely. This may be due to a lack of understanding of the specific financial implications of such policies within each country. Methods A novel ‘meta-modelling’ approach was developed based on previous SBI cost-effectiveness models for four EU countries. Data was collected on the key factors which drive cost-effectiveness for all 28 EU countries (mean per capita alcohol consumption, proportion of the population to be screened over a 10-year SBI programme; per capita alcohol-attributable mortality; per capita alcoholattributable morbidity; mean cost of an alcohol-related hospitalisation and mean SBI-delivery staff cost). Regression analysis was used to fit two meta-models estimating net programme costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, to calculate cost-effectiveness estimates specific to each EU country. Results Costs are dependent upon the proportion of the population covered by the screening programme, the country-specific per capita mortality and morbidity rate and the country-specific costs of GP care and hospitalisation. QALYs depend on the proportion of the population screened and per capita alcohol consumption. Despite large inter-country variability in factor values, SBI programmes are likely to be cost-effective in 24 out of 28 EU countries and cost-saving in about 50% of countries. Conclusion Implementing national programmes of SBI in primary health care would be a cost-effective means of reducing alcohol-attributable morbidity and deaths in almost all countries of the EU

Injury Alcohol-Attributable Fractions: Methodological Issues and Developments

Background: Alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) are routinely used to estimate the burden of injury resulting from alcohol. Recent methodological advances allow AAFs to be estimated using national survey data. However, this requires assuming that the drinking patterns are equivalent to those used by epidemiological studies estimating the relative risk of injury. This study explores the implications of this assumption and presents an improved method of estimating injury AAFs. Methods: Diary survey is used to describe individuals’ drinking occasions and estimate AAFs. Statistical methods and numerical integration are used to combine the evidence on the risk of injury when intoxicated with the diary data. Alternative assumptions are chosen to explore the implications of using national survey data. Results:Overall, an estimated 27% of road traffic accident (RTA) and 23% of non-RTA injuries in Britain are attributable to alcohol. AAF estimates for RTAs range from 54% to 2% and for non-RTAs from 36% to 8% in men aged 16-24 and women aged 55-64 respectively. Two potentially more realistic assumptions relating to the use of national survey data resulted in substantially lower AAF estimates for RTAs. Conclusion: Current methods of estimating injury AAFs using national survey data are flawed for some harms, particularly RTAs, where the data is not consistent with the epidemiological literature. Our findings indicate that the burden of injuries from RTAs in England has been previously overestimated. Further research into the prevalence of risky behaviours when intoxicated is required to refine these methods and produce more robust burden of injury estimates

From core collapse to superluminous: The rates of massive stellar explosions from the Palomar Transient Factory

We present measurements of the local core-collapse supernova (CCSN) rate using SN discoveries from the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF). We use a Monte Carlo simulation of hundreds of millions of SN light-curve realizations coupled with the detailed PTF survey detection efficiencies to forward model the SN rates in PTF. Using a sample of 86 CCSNe, including 26 stripped-envelope SNe (SESNe), we show that the overall CCSN volumetric rate is CCv=9.10-1.27+1.56× 10-5SNe yr-1Mpc-3, h703 at za = 0.028, and the SESN volumetric rate is SEv=2.41-0.64+0.81× 10-5SNe yr-1Mpc-3, h703. We further measure a volumetric rate for hydrogen-free superluminous SNe (SLSNe-I) using eight events at z ≤ 0.2 of SLSN-Iv=35-13+25 SNe yr-1Gpc-3, h703, which represents the most precise SLSN-I rate measurement to date. Using a simple cosmic star formation history to adjust these volumetric rate measurements to the same redshift, we measure a local ratio of SLSN-I to SESN of ∼1/810+1500-94, and of SLSN-I to all CCSN types of ∼1/3500+2800-720. However, using host galaxy stellar mass as a proxy for metallicity, we also show that this ratio is strongly metallicity dependent: in low-mass (logM∗ < 9.5 M·) galaxies, which are the only environments that host SLSN-I in our sample, we measure an SLSN-I to SESN fraction of 1/300+380-170 and 1/1700+1800-720 for all CCSN. We further investigate the SN rates a function of host galaxy stellar mass, and show that the specific rates of all CCSNe decrease with increasing stellar mass

Superluminous supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey

We present a sample of 21 hydrogen-free superluminous supernovae (SLSNe-I) and one hydrogen-rich SLSN (SLSN-II) detected during the five-year Dark Energy Survey (DES). These SNe, located in the redshift range 0.220 < z < 1.998, represent the largest homogeneously selected sample of SLSN events at high redshift. We present the observed g, r, i, z light curves for these SNe, which we interpolate using Gaussian processes. The resulting light curves are analysed to determine the luminosity function of SLSNe-I, and their evolutionary timescales. The DES SLSN-I sample significantly broadens the distribution of SLSN-I light-curve properties when combined with existing samples from the literature. We fit a magnetar model to our SLSNe, and find that this model alone is unable to replicate the behaviour of many of the bolometric light curves. We search the DES SLSN-I light curves for the presence of initial peaks prior to the main light-curve peak. Using a shock breakout model, our Monte Carlo search finds that 3 of our 14 events with pre-max data display such initial peaks. However, 10 events show no evidence for such peaks, in some cases down to an absolute magnitude of<−16, suggesting that such features are not ubiquitous to all SLSN-I events. We also identify a red pre-peak feature within the light curve of one SLSN, which is comparable to that observed within SN2018bsz

SN 2018bsz: a Type I superluminous supernova with aspherical circumstellar material

We present a spectroscopic analysis of the most nearby Type I superluminous supernova (SLSN-I), SN 2018bsz. The photometric evolution of SN 2018bsz has several surprising features, including an unusual pre-peak plateau and evidence for rapid formation of dust ≳200 d post-peak. We show here that the spectroscopic and polarimetric properties of SN 2018bsz are also unique. While its spectroscopic evolution closely resembles SLSNe-I, with early O II absorption and C II P Cygni profiles followed by Ca, Mg, Fe, and other O features, a multi-component Hα profile appearing at ∼30 d post-maximum is the most atypical. The Hα is at first characterised by two emission components, one at ∼+3000 km s−1 and a second at ∼ − 7500 km s−1, with a third, near-zero-velocity component appearing after a delay. The blue and central components can be described by Gaussian profiles of intermediate width (FWHM ∼ 2000–6000 km s−1), but the red component is significantly broader (FWHM ≳ 10 000 km s−1) and Lorentzian. The blue Hα component evolves towards a lower-velocity offset before abruptly fading at ∼ + 100 d post-maximum brightness, concurrently with a light curve break. Multi-component profiles are observed in other hydrogen lines, including Paβ, and in lines of Ca II and He I. Spectropolarimetry obtained before (10.2 d) and after (38.4 d) the appearance of the H lines shows a large shift on the Stokes Q – U plane consistent with SN 2018bsz undergoing radical changes in its projected geometry. Assuming the supernova is almost unpolarised at 10.2 d, the continuum polarisation at 38.4 d reaches P ∼ 1.8%, implying an aspherical configuration. We propose that the observed evolution of SN 2018bsz can be explained by highly aspherical, possibly disk-like, circumstellar material (CSM) with several emitting regions. After the supernova explosion, the CSM is quickly overtaken by the ejecta, but as the photosphere starts to recede, the different CSM regions re-emerge, producing the peculiar line profiles. Based on the first appearance of Hα, we can constrain the distance of the CSM to be less than ∼6.5 × 1015 cm (430 AU), or even lower (≲87 AU) if the pre-peak plateau is related to an eruption that created the CSM. The presence of CSM has been inferred previously for other SLSNe-I, both directly and indirectly. However, it is not clear whether the rare properties of SN 2018bsz can be generalised for SLSNe-I, for example in the context of pulsational pair instability, or whether they are the result of an uncommon evolutionary path, possibly involving a binary companion

The first Hubble diagram and cosmological constraints using superluminous supernovae

This paper has gone through internal review by the DES collaboration. It has Fermilab preprint number 19-115-AE and DES publication number 13387. We acknowledge support from EU/FP7- ERC grant 615929. RCN would like to acknowledge support from STFC grant ST/N000688/1 and the Faculty of Technology at the University of Portsmouth. LG was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme under the Marie Skłodowska- Curie grant agreement no. 839090. This work has been partially supported by the Spanish grant PGC2018-095317-B-C21 within the European Funds for Regional Development (FEDER). Funding for the DES Projects has been provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Ministry of Science and Education of Spain, the Science and Technology Facilities Council of the United Kingdom, the Higher Education Funding Council for England, the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the Kavli Institute of Cosmological Physics at the University of Chicago, the Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics at the Ohio State University, the Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy at Texas A&M University, Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos, Fundac¸ ˜ao Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo `a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient´ıfico e Tecnol´ogico and the Minist´erio da Ciˆencia, Tecnologia e Inovac¸ ˜ao, the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, and the Collaborating Institutions in the Dark Energy Survey. The Collaborating Institutions are Argonne National Laboratory, the University of California at Santa Cruz, the University of Cambridge, Centro de Investigaciones Energ´eticas, Medioambientales y Tecnol ´ogicas-Madrid, the University of Chicago, University College London, the DES-Brazil Consortium, the University of Edinburgh, the Eidgen¨ossische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Z¨urich, Fermi NationalAccelerator Laboratory, theUniversity of Illinois atUrbana- Champaign, the Institut de Ci`encies de l’Espai (IEEC/CSIC), the Institut de F´ısica d’Altes Energies, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the Ludwig-Maximilians Universit¨at M¨unchen and the associated Excellence Cluster Universe, the University of Michigan, the National Optical Astronomy Observatory, the University of Nottingham, The Ohio State University, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Portsmouth, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, the University of Sussex, Texas A&M University, and the OzDES Membership Consortium. Based in part on observations at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory, National Optical Astronomy Observatory, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA) under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation. The DES data management system is supported by the National Science Foundation under grant numbers AST-1138766 and AST-1536171. The DES participants from Spanish institutions are partially supported by MINECO under grants AYA2015- 71825, ESP2015-66861, FPA2015-68048, SEV-2016-0588, SEV- 2016-0597, and MDM-2015-0509, some of which include ERDF funds from the European Union. IFAE is partially funded by the CERCA program of the Generalitat de Catalunya. Research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) including ERC grant agreements 240672, 291329, and 306478.We acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for All-skyAstrophysics (CAASTRO), through project number CE110001020, and the Brazilian Instituto Nacional de Ciˆencia e Tecnologia (INCT) e-Universe (CNPq grant 465376/2014-2). This paper has been authored by Fermi Research Alliance, LLC under Contract No.DE-AC02-07CH11359 with theU.S.Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy Physics. The United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the paper for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this paper, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.We present the first Hubble diagram of superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) out to a redshift of two, together with constraints on the matter density, M, and the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, w(≡p/ρ). We build a sample of 20 cosmologically useful SLSNe I based on light curve and spectroscopy quality cuts. We confirm the robustness of the peak–decline SLSN I standardization relation with a larger data set and improved fitting techniques than previous works. We then solve the SLSN model based on the above standardization via minimization of the χ2 computed from a covariance matrix that includes statistical and systematic uncertainties. For a spatially flat cold dark matter ( CDM) cosmological model, we find M = 0.38+0.24 −0.19, with an rms of 0.27 mag for the residuals of the distance moduli. For a w0waCDM cosmological model, the addition of SLSNe I to a ‘baseline’ measurement consisting of Planck temperature together with Type Ia supernovae, results in a small improvement in the constraints of w0 and wa of 4 per cent.We present simulations of future surveys with 868 and 492 SLSNe I (depending on the configuration used) and show that such a sample can deliver cosmological constraints in a flat CDM model with the same precision (considering only statistical uncertainties) as current surveys that use Type Ia supernovae, while providing a factor of 2–3 improvement in the precision of the constraints on the time variation of dark energy, w0 and wa. This paper represents the proof of concept for superluminous supernova cosmology, and demonstrates they can provide an independent test of cosmology in the high-redshift (z > 1) universe.EU/FP7-ERC grant 615929STFC grant ST/N000688/1Faculty of Technology at the University of PortsmouthEuropean Union’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme under the Marie Skłodowska- Curie grant agreement no. 839090Spanish grant PGC2018-095317-B-C21 within the European Funds for Regional Development (FEDER)U.S. Department of EnergyU.S. National Science FoundationMinistry of Science and Education of SpainScience and Technology Facilities Council of the United KingdomHigher Education Funding Council for EnglandNational Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,Kavli Institute of Cosmological Physics at the University of ChicagoCenter for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics at the Ohio State UniversityMitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy at Texas A&M University, Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos, Fundacão Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo `a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and the Ministério da Ciencia, Tecnologia e InovacãoDeutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftCollaborating Institutions in the Dark Energy Survey.National Science Foundation under grant numbers AST-1138766 and AST-1536171.T MINECO under grants AYA2015- 71825, ESP2015-66861, FPA2015-68048, SEV-2016-0588, SEV- 2016-0597, and MDM-2015-0509, some of which include ERDF funds from the European Union.CERCA program of the Generalitat de Catalunya.European Research Council under the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) including ERC grant agreements 240672, 291329, and 306478.Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for All-skyAstrophysics (CAASTRO), through project number CE110001020Brazilian Instituto Nacional de Ciˆencia e Tecnologia (INCT) e-Universe (CNPq grant 465376/2014-2)Fermi Research Alliance, LLC under Contract No.DE-AC02-07CH11359 with theU.S.Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy Physic

A nearby super-luminous supernova with a long pre-maximum & "plateau" and strong C II features

Context. Super-luminous supernovae (SLSNe) are rare events defined as being significantly more luminous than normal terminal stellar explosions. The source of the additional power needed to achieve such luminosities is still unclear. Discoveries in the local Universe (i.e. z < 0.1) are scarce, but afford dense multi-wavelength observations. Additional low-redshift objects are therefore extremely valuable. Aims. We present early-time observations of the type I SLSN ASASSN-18km/SN 2018bsz. These data are used to characterise the event and compare to literature SLSNe and spectral models. Host galaxy properties are also analysed. Methods. Optical and near-IR photometry and spectroscopy were analysed. Early-time ATLAS photometry was used to constrain the rising light curve. We identified a number of spectral features in optical-wavelength spectra and track their time evolution. Finally, we used archival host galaxy photometry together with H II region spectra to constrain the host environment. Results. ASASSN-18km/SN 2018bsz is found to be a type I SLSN in a galaxy at a redshift of 0.0267 (111 Mpc), making it the lowest-redshift event discovered to date. Strong C II lines are identified in the spectra. Spectral models produced by exploding a Wolf-Rayet progenitor and injecting a magnetar power source are shown to be qualitatively similar to ASASSN-18km/SN 2018bsz, contrary to most SLSNe-I that display weak or non-existent C II lines. ASASSN-18km/SN 2018bsz displays a long, slowly rising, red “plateau” of >26 days, before a steeper, faster rise to maximum. The host has an absolute magnitude of –19.8 mag (r), a mass of M⋆ = 1.5−0.33+0.08 × 109 M⊙, and a star formation rate of = 0.50−0.19+2.22 M⊙ yr −1. A nearby H II region has an oxygen abundance (O3N2) of 8.31 ± 0.01 dex

The first Hubble diagram and cosmological constraints using superluminous supernovae

We present the first Hubble diagram of superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) out to a redshift of two, together with constraints on the matter density, ΩM, and the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, w(≡p/ρ). We build a sample of 20 cosmologically useful SLSNe I based on light curve and spectroscopy quality cuts. We confirm the robustness of the peak–decline SLSN I standardization relation with a larger data set and improved fitting techniques than previous works. We then solve the SLSN model based on the above standardization via minimization of the χ2 computed from a covariance matrix that includes statistical and systematic uncertainties. For a spatially flat Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model, we find ΩM=0.38+0.24−0.19⁠, with an rms of 0.27 mag for the residuals of the distance moduli. For a w0waCDM cosmological model, the addition of SLSNe I to a ‘baseline’ measurement consisting of Planck temperature together with Type Ia supernovae, results in a small improvement in the constraints of w0 and wa of 4 per cent. We present simulations of future surveys with 868 and 492 SLSNe I (depending on the configuration used) and show that such a sample can deliver cosmological constraints in a flat ΛCDM model with the same precision (considering only statistical uncertainties) as current surveys that use Type Ia supernovae, while providing a factor of 2–3 improvement in the precision of the constraints on the time variation of dark energy, w0 and wa. This paper represents the proof of concept for superluminous supernova cosmology, and demonstrates they can provide an independent test of cosmology in the high-redshift (z > 1) universe.</p