An adaptive two-arm clinical trial using early endpoints to inform decision making : design for a study of sub-acromial spacers for repair of rotator cuff tendon tears

Background There is widespread concern across the clinical and research communities that clinical trials, powered for patient-reported outcomes, testing new surgical procedures are often expensive and time-consuming, particularly when the new intervention is shown to be no better than the standard. Conventional (non-adaptive) randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are perceived as being particularly inefficient in this setting. Therefore, we have developed an adaptive group sequential design that allows early endpoints to inform decision making and show, through simulations and a worked example, that these designs are feasible and often preferable to conventional non-adaptive designs. The methodology is motivated by an ongoing clinical trial investigating a saline-filled balloon, inserted above the main joint of the shoulder at the end of arthroscopic debridement, for treatment of tears of rotor cuff tendons. This research question and setting is typical of many studies undertaken to assess new surgical procedures. Methods Test statistics are presented based on the setting of two early outcomes, and methods for estimation of sequential stopping boundaries are described. A framework for the implementation of simulations to evaluate design characteristics is also described. Results Simulations show that designs with one, two and three early looks are feasible and, with appropriately chosen futility stopping boundaries, have appealing design characteristics. A number of possible design options are described that have good power and a high probability of stopping for futility if there is no evidence of a treatment effect at early looks. A worked example, with code in R, provides a practical demonstration of how the design might work in a real study. Conclusions In summary, we show that adaptive designs are feasible and could work in practice. We describe the operating characteristics of the designs and provide guidelines for appropriate values for the stopping boundaries for the START:REACTS (Sub-acromial spacer for Tears Affecting Rotator cuff Tendons: a Randomised, Efficient, Adaptive Clinical Trial in Surgery) study

A detailed clinical and molecular survey of subjects with nonsyndromic USH2A retinopathy reveals an allelic hierarchy of disease-causing variants.

Defects in USH2A cause both isolated retinal disease and Usher syndrome (ie, retinal disease and deafness). To gain insights into isolated/nonsyndromic USH2A retinopathy, we screened USH2A in 186 probands with recessive retinal disease and no hearing complaint in childhood (discovery cohort) and in 84 probands with recessive retinal disease (replication cohort). Detailed phenotyping, including retinal imaging and audiological assessment, was performed in individuals with two likely disease-causing USH2A variants. Further genetic testing, including screening for a deep-intronic disease-causing variant and large deletions/duplications, was performed in those with one likely disease-causing change. Overall, 23 of 186 probands (discovery cohort) were found to harbour two likely disease-causing variants in USH2A. Some of these variants were predominantly associated with nonsyndromic retinal degeneration ('retinal disease-specific'); these included the common c.2276 G>T, p.(Cys759Phe) mutation and five additional variants: c.2802 T>G, p.(Cys934Trp); c.10073 G>A, p.(Cys3358Tyr); c.11156 G>A, p.(Arg3719His); c.12295-3 T>A; and c.12575 G>A, p.(Arg4192His). An allelic hierarchy was observed in the discovery cohort and confirmed in the replication cohort. In nonsyndromic USH2A disease, retinopathy was consistent with retinitis pigmentosa and the audiological phenotype was variable. USH2A retinopathy is a common cause of nonsyndromic recessive retinal degeneration and has a different mutational spectrum to that observed in Usher syndrome. The following model is proposed: the presence of at least one 'retinal disease-specific' USH2A allele in a patient with USH2A-related disease results in the preservation of normal hearing. Careful genotype-phenotype studies such as this will become increasingly important, especially now that high-throughput sequencing is widely used in the clinical setting.European Journal of Human Genetics advance online publication, 4 February 2015; doi:10.1038/ejhg.2014.283

A cluster randomized controlled trial of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Intermediate Care Clinics for Diabetes (ICCD) : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background World-wide healthcare systems are faced with an epidemic of type 2 diabetes. In the United Kingdom, clinical care is primarily provided by general practitioners (GPs) rather than hospital specialists. Intermediate care clinics for diabetes (ICCD) potentially provide a model for supporting GPs in their care of people with poorly controlled type 2 diabetes and in their management of cardiovascular risk factors. This study aims to (1) compare patients with type 2 diabetes registered with practices that have access to an ICCD service with those that have access only to usual hospital care; (2) assess the cost-effectiveness of the intervention; and (3) explore the views and experiences of patients, health professionals and other stakeholders. Methods/Design This two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial (with integral economic evaluation and qualitative study) is set in general practices in three UK Primary Care Trusts. Practices are randomized to one of two groups with patients referred to either an ICCD (intervention) or to hospital care (control). Intervention group: GP practices in the intervention arm have the opportunity to refer patients to an ICCD - a multidisciplinary team led by a specialist nurse and a diabetologist. Patients are reviewed and managed in the ICCD for a short period with a goal of improving diabetes and cardiovascular risk factor control and are then referred back to practice. or Control group: Standard GP care, with referral to secondary care as required, but no access to ICCD. Participants are adults aged 18 years or older who have type 2 diabetes that is difficult for their GPs to control. The primary outcome is the proportion of participants reaching three risk factor targets: HbA1c (≤7.0%); blood pressure (<140/80); and cholesterol (<4 mmol/l), at the end of the 18-month intervention period. The main secondary outcomes are the proportion of participants reaching individual risk factor targets and the overall 10-year risks for coronary heart disease(CHD) and stroke assessed by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Other secondary outcomes include body mass index and waist circumference, use of medication, reported smoking, emotional adjustment, patient satisfaction and views on continuity, costs and health related quality of life. We aimed to randomize 50 practices and recruit 2,555 patients

Practical help for specifying the target difference in sample size calculations for RCTs: the DELTA2 five-stage study, including a workshop

BACKGROUND: The randomised controlled trial is widely considered to be the gold standard study for comparing the effectiveness of health interventions. Central to its design is a calculation of the number of participants needed (the sample size) for the trial. The sample size is typically calculated by specifying the magnitude of the difference in the primary outcome between the intervention effects for the population of interest. This difference is called the 'target difference' and should be appropriate for the principal estimand of interest and determined by the primary aim of the study. The target difference between treatments should be considered realistic and/or important by one or more key stakeholder groups. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the report is to provide practical help on the choice of target difference used in the sample size calculation for a randomised controlled trial for researchers and funder representatives. METHODS: The Difference ELicitation in TriAls2 (DELTA2) recommendations and advice were developed through a five-stage process, which included two literature reviews of existing funder guidance and recent methodological literature; a Delphi process to engage with a wider group of stakeholders; a 2-day workshop; and finalising the core document. RESULTS: Advice is provided for definitive trials (Phase III/IV studies). Methods for choosing the target difference are reviewed. To aid those new to the topic, and to encourage better practice, 10 recommendations are made regarding choosing the target difference and undertaking a sample size calculation. Recommended reporting items for trial proposal, protocols and results papers under the conventional approach are also provided. Case studies reflecting different trial designs and covering different conditions are provided. Alternative trial designs and methods for choosing the sample size are also briefly considered. CONCLUSIONS: Choosing an appropriate sample size is crucial if a study is to inform clinical practice. The number of patients recruited into the trial needs to be sufficient to answer the objectives; however, the number should not be higher than necessary to avoid unnecessary burden on patients and wasting precious resources. The choice of the target difference is a key part of this process under the conventional approach to sample size calculations. This document provides advice and recommendations to improve practice and reporting regarding this aspect of trial design. Future work could extend the work to address other less common approaches to the sample size calculations, particularly in terms of appropriate reporting items. FUNDING: Funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) UK and the National Institute for Health Research as part of the MRC-National Institute for Health Research Methodology Research programme

Lithological influences on contemporary and long-term regolith weathering at the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory

Lithologic differences give rise to the differential weatherability of the Earth’s surface and globally variable silicate weathering fluxes, which provide an important negative feedback on climate over geologic timescales. To isolate the influence of lithology on weathering rates and mechanisms, we compare two nearby catchments in the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory in Puerto Rico, which have similar climate history, relief and vegetation, but differ in bedrock lithology. Regolith and pore water samples with depth were collected from two ridgetops and at three sites along a slope transect in the volcaniclastic Bisley catchment and compared to existing data from the granitic Río Icacos catchment. The depth variations of solid-state and pore water chemistry and quantitative mineralogy were used to calculate mass transfer (tau) and weathering solute profiles, which in turn were used to determine weathering mechanisms and to estimate weathering rates. Regolith formed on both lithologies is highly leached of most labile elements, although Mg and K are less depleted in the granitic than in the volcaniclastic profiles, reflecting residual biotite in the granitic regolith not present in the volcaniclastics. Profiles of both lithologies that terminate at bedrock corestones are less weathered at depth, near the rock-regolith interfaces. Mg fluxes in the volcaniclastics derive primarily from dissolution of chlorite near the rock-regolith interface and from dissolution of illite and secondary phases in the upper regolith, whereas in the granitic profile, Mg and K fluxes derive from biotite dissolution. Long-term mineral dissolution rates and weathering fluxes were determined by integrating mass losses over the thickness of solid-state weathering fronts, and are therefore averages over the timescale of regolith development. Resulting long-term dissolution rates for minerals in the volcaniclastic regolith include chlorite: 8.9 × 10‾¹⁴ mol m‾² s‾¹, illite: 2.1 × 10‾¹⁴ mol m‾² s‾¹ and kaolinite: 4.0 × 10‾¹⁴ mol m‾² s‾¹. Long-term weathering fluxes are several orders of magnitude lower in the granitic regolith than in the volcaniclastic, despite higher abundances of several elements in the granitic regolith. Contemporary weathering fluxes were determined from net (rain-corrected) solute profiles and thus represent rates over the residence time of water in the regolith. Contemporary weathering fluxes within the granitic regolith are similar to the long-term fluxes. In contrast, the long-term fluxes are faster than the contemporary fluxes in the volcaniclastic regolith. Contemporary fluxes in the granitic regolith are generally also slightly faster than in the volcaniclastic. The differences in weathering fluxes over space and time between these two watersheds indicate significant lithologic control of chemical weathering mechanisms and rates

Pre-hospital assessment of the role of adrenaline : measuring the effectiveness of drug administration in cardiac arrest (PARAMEDIC-2) : trial protocol

Despite its use since the 1960s, the safety or effectiveness of adrenaline as a treatment for cardiac arrest has never been comprehensively evaluated in a clinical trial. Although most studies have found that adrenaline increases the chance of return of spontaneous circulation for short periods, many studies found harmful effects on the brain and raise concern that adrenaline may reduce overall survival and/or good neurological outcome. The PARAMEDIC-2 trial seeks to determine if adrenaline is safe and effective in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. This is a pragmatic, individually randomised, double blind, controlled trial with a parallel economic evaluation. Participants will be eligible if they are in cardiac arrest in the out-of-hospital environment and advanced life support is initiated. Exclusions are cardiac arrest as a result of anaphylaxis or life threatening asthma, and patient known or appearing to be under 16 or pregnant. 8000 participants treated by 5 UK ambulance services will be randomised between December 2014 and August 2017 to adrenaline (intervention) or placebo (control) through opening pre-randomised drug packs. Clinical outcomes are survival to 30 days (primary outcome), hospital discharge, 3, 6 and 12 months, health related quality of life, and neurological and cognitive outcomes (secondary outcomes). Trial registration (ISRCTN73485024)

Subacromial balloon spacer for irreparable rotator cuff tears of the shoulder (START:REACTS) : a group-sequential, double-blind, multicentre randomised controlled trial

Background New surgical procedures can expose patients to harm and should be carefully evaluated before widespread use. The InSpace balloon (Stryker, USA) is an innovative surgical device used to treat people with rotator cuff tears that cannot be repaired. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of the InSpace balloon for people with irreparable rotator cuff tears. Methods We conducted a double-blind, group-sequential, adaptive randomised controlled trial in 24 hospitals in the UK, comparing arthroscopic debridement of the subacromial space with biceps tenotomy (debridement only group) with the same procedure but including insertion of the InSpace balloon (debridement with device group). Participants had an irreparable rotator cuff tear, which had not resolved with conservative treatment, and they had symptoms warranting surgery. Eligibility was confirmed intraoperatively before randomly assigning (1:1) participants to a treatment group using a remote computer system. Participants and assessors were masked to group assignment. Masking was achieved by using identical incisions for both procedures, blinding the operation note, and a consistent rehabilitation programme was offered regardless of group allocation. The primary outcome was the Oxford Shoulder Score at 12 months. Pre-trial simulations using data from early and late timepoints informed stopping boundaries for two interim analyses. The primary analysis was on a modified intention-to-treat basis, adjusted for the planned interim analysis. The trial was registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN17825590. Findings Between June 1, 2018, and July 30, 2020, we assessed 385 people for eligibility, of which 317 were eligible. 249 (79%) people consented for inclusion in the study. 117 participants were randomly allocated to a treatment group, 61 participants to the debridement only group and 56 to the debridement with device group. A predefined stopping boundary was met at the first interim analysis and recruitment stopped with 117 participants randomised. 43% of participants were female, 57% were male. We obtained primary outcome data for 114 (97%) participants. The mean Oxford Shoulder Score at 12 months was 34·3 (SD 11·1) in the debridement only group and 30·3 (10·9) in the debridement with device group (mean difference adjusted for adaptive design –4·2 [95% CI –8·2 to –0·26];p=0·037) favouring control. There was no difference in adverse events between the two groups. Interpretation In an efficient, adaptive trial design, our results favoured the debridement only group. We do not recommend the InSpace balloon for the treatment of irreparable rotator cuff tears

Prognostic significance of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast

Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) provide prognostic value in invasive breast cancer and guidelines for their assessment have been published. This study aims to evaluate: (a) methods of TILs assessment, and (b) their prognostic significance in breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Hematoxylin and eosin sections from two clinically annotated DCIS cohorts; a training set (n = 150 pure DCIS) and a validation set (n = 666 comprising 534 pure DCIS and 132 cases wherein DCIS and invasive breast carcinoma were co-existent) were assessed. Seven different scoring methods were applied to the training set to identify the most optimal reproducible method associated with strongest prognostic value. Among different methods, TILs touching ducts' basement membrane or away from it by one lymphocyte cell thickness provided the strongest significant association with outcome and highest concordance rate [inter-cluster correlation coefficient = 0.95]. Assessment of periductal TILs at increasing distances from DCIS (0.2 , 0.5 , and 1 mm) as well as percent of stromal TILs were practically challenging and showed lower concordance rates than touching TILs. TILs hotspots and lymphoid follicles did not show prognostic significance. Within the pure DCIS validation set, dense TILs were associated with younger age, symptomatic presentation, larger size, higher nuclear grade, comedo necrosis and estrogen receptor negativity as well as shorter recurrence-free interval (p = 0.002). In multivariate survival analysis, dense TILs were independent predictor of shorter recurrence-free interval (p = 0.002) in patients treated with breast conservation. DCIS associated with invasive carcinoma showed denser TILs than pure DCIS (p = 9.0 × 10-13). Dense TILs is an independent prognostic variable in DCIS. Touching TILs provides a reproducible method for their assessment that can potentially be used to guide management

Protocol for a randomised controlled trial of subacromial spacers for tears affecting rotator cuff tendons : a randomised, efficient, adaptive clinical trial in surgery (START:REACTS)

Introduction: Shoulder pain due to irreparable rotator cuff tears can cause substantial disability, but treatment options are limited. A balloon spacer is a relatively simple addition to a standard arthroscopic debridement procedure, but it is costly and there is no current randomised trial evidence to support its use. This trial will evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a subacromial balloon spacer for individuals undergoing arthroscopic debridement for irreparable rotator cuff tears. New surgical procedures can provide substantial benefit to patients. Good quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are needed, but trials in surgery are typically long and expensive, exposing patients to risk and the healthcare system to substantial costs. One way to improve the efficiency of trials is with an adaptive sample size. Such methods are well established in drug trials but have rarely, if ever, been used in surgical trials. Methods and analysis: Subacromial spacer for Tears Affecting Rotator cuff Tendons: a Randomised, Efficient, Adaptive Clinical Trial in Surgery (START:REACTS) is a participant and assessor blinded, adaptive, multicentre RCT comparing arthroscopic debridement with the InSpace balloon (Stryker, USA) to arthroscopic debridement alone for people with a symptomatic irreparable rotator cuff tear. It uses a group sequential adaptive design where interim analyses are performed using all of the 3, 6 and 12-month data that are available at each time point. A maximum of 221 participants will be randomised (1:1 ratio), this will provide 90% power (at the 5% level) for a 6 point difference in the primary outcome; the Oxford Shoulder Score at 12 months. A substudy will use deltoid-active MRI scans in 56 participants to assess the function of the balloon. Analysis will be on an intention-to-treat basis and reported according to principles established in the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement. Ethics and dissemination: NRES number 18/WM/0025. The results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications, presentations at conferences, lay summaries and social media. Trial registration number: ISRCTN1782559