Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. METHODS: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. FINDINGS: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5–3·0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6·8% (5·8–8·0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15–49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3·8% (95% UI 3·2–4·3) of female deaths and 12·2% (10·8–13·6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15–49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2·3% (95% UI 2·0–2·6) and male attributable DALYs were 8·9% (7·8–9·9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1·4% [95% UI 1·0–1·7] of total deaths), road injuries (1·2% [0·7–1·9]), and self-harm (1·1% [0·6–1·5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27·1% (95% UI 21·2–33·3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18·9% (15·3–22·6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0·0–0·8) standard drinks per week. INTERPRETATION: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Association of free androgen index and sex hormone–binding globulin and left ventricular hypertrophy in postmenopausal hypertensive women

The aim of the present study was to explore the relationship between androgen and LVH in postmenopausal hypertensive women. Enrolled in this study were 378 postmenopausal hypertensive women who were admitted to the department of cardiology between December 2018 and December 2020. According to left ventricular mass index (LVMI) evaluated by echocardiography, the patients were divided into LVH group (n = 172) and non‐LVH group (n = 206). Their clinical characteristics were collected. Based on the result of propensity score matching analysis, 160 cases in each group were matched successfully. After correcting for confounding factors by various models, the results showed that free androgen index (FAI) and sex hormone–binding globulin (SHBG) were the influencing factors of LVH in postmenopausal women with hypertension. Patients with elevated SHBG were 5% less likely to develop LVH than those without elevated SHBG (OR: 0.950, 95% CI 0.922‐1.578). Postmenopausal hypertensive patients with elevated FAI were 16% more likely to have LVH than those without elevated FAI (OR: 1.608, 95% CI 0.807‐3.202). Multiple linear regression showed that LVMI increased by 61.82g/m(2) for every 1 unit increase in FAI. In addition, SHBG decreased by 1 nmol/l, and LVMI increased by 0.177g/m(2). Subgroup analysis showed that patients in the controlled BP group had a lower risk of LVH for every additional unit of SHBG compared with the uncontrolled BP group. The risk of LVH for each additional unit of FAI in the uncontrolled BP group was higher than that in the controlled BP group. The results of this present study showed that the occurrence of LVH was positively correlated with FAI and negatively correlated with SHBG in postmenopausal women with hypertension. The increase in FAI level and the decrease in SHBG level may be related to the occurrence and development of LVH in postmenopausal hypertension

Aging blunts hyperventilation-induced hypocapnia and reduction in cerebral blood flow velocity during maximal exercise

Cerebral blood flow (CBF) increases from rest to ∼60% of peak oxygen uptake (VO(2peak)) and thereafter decreases towards baseline due to hyperventilation-induced hypocapnia and subsequent cerebral vasoconstriction. It is unknown what happens to CBF in older adults (OA), who experience a decline in CBF at rest coupled with a blunted ventilatory response during VO(2peak). In 14 OA (71 ± 10 year) and 21 young controls (YA; 23 ± 4 years), we hypothesized that OA would experience less hyperventilation-induced cerebral vasoconstriction and therefore an attenuated reduction in CBF at VO(2peak). Incremental exercise was performed on a cycle ergometer, whilst bilateral middle cerebral artery blood flow velocity (MCA V(mean); transcranial Doppler ultrasound), heart rate (HR; ECG) and end-tidal PCO(2) (P(ET)CO(2)) were monitored continuously. Blood pressure (BP) was monitored intermittently. From rest to 50% of VO(2peak), despite greater elevations in BP in OA, the change in MCA V(mean) was greater in YA compared to OA (28% vs. 15%, respectively; P < 0.0005). In the YA, at intensities >70% of VO(2peak), the hyperventilation-induced declines in both P(ET)CO(2) (14 mmHg (YA) vs. 4 mmHg (OA); P < 0.05) and MCA V(mean) (−21% (YA) vs. −7% (OA); P < 0.0005) were greater in YA compared to OA. Our findings show (1), from rest-to-mild intensity exercise (50% VO(2peak)), elevations in CBF are reduced in OA and (2) age-related declines in hyperventilation during maximal exercise result in less hypocapnic-induced cerebral vasoconstriction

A bivalent meningococcal B vaccine in adolescents and young adults

BACKGROUND MenB-FHbp is a licensed meningococcal B vaccine targeting factor H-binding protein. Two phase 3 studies assessed the safety of the vaccine and its immunogenicity against diverse strains of group B meningococcus. METHODS We randomly assigned 3596 adolescents (10 to 18 years of age) to receive MenB-FHbp or hepatitis A virus vaccine and saline and assigned 3304 young adults (18 to 25 years of age) to receive MenB-FHbp or saline at baseline, 2 months, and 6 months. Immunogenicity was assessed in serum bactericidal assays that included human complement (hSBAs). We used 14 meningococcal B test strains that expressed vaccine-heterologous factor H-binding proteins representative of meningococcal B epidemiologic diversity; an hSBA titer of at least 1:4 is the accepted correlate of protection. The five primary end points were the proportion of participants who had an increase in their hSBA titer for each of 4 primary strains by a factor of 4 or more and the proportion of those who had an hSBA titer at least as high as the lower limit of quantitation (1:8 or 1:16) for all 4 strains combined after dose 3. We also assessed the hSBA responses to the primary strains after dose 2; hSBA responses to the 10 additional strains after doses 2 and 3 were assessed in a subgroup of participants only. Safety was assessed in participants who received at least one dose. RESULTS In the modified intention-to-treat population, the percentage of adolescents who had an increase in the hSBA titer by a factor of 4 or more against each primary strain ranged from 56.0 to 85.3% after dose 2 and from 78.8 to 90.2% after dose 3; the percentages of young adults ranged from 54.6 to 85.6% and 78.9 to 89.7%, after doses 2 and 3, respectively. Composite responses after doses 2 and 3 in adolescents were 53.7% and 82.7%, respectively, and those in young adults were 63.3% and 84.5%, respectively. Responses to the 4 primary strains were predictive of responses to the 10 additional strains. Most of those who received MenB-FHbp reported mild or moderate pain at the vaccination site. CONCLUSIONS MenB-FHbp elicited bactericidal responses against diverse meningococcal B strains after doses 2 and 3 and was associated with more reactions at the injection site than the hepatitis A virus vaccine and saline. (Funded by Pfizer; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01830855 and NCT01352845.)