Dispersal limitation and fire feedbacks maintain mesic savannas in Madagascar

Madagascar is regarded by some as one of the most degraded landscapes on Earth, with estimates suggesting that 90% of forests have been lost to indigenous Tavy farming. However, the extent of this degradation has been challenged: paleoecological data, phylogeographic analysis, and species richness indicate that pyrogenic savannas in central Madagascar predate human arrival, even though rainfall is sufficient to allow forest expansion into central Madagascar. These observations raise a question—if savannas in Madagascar are not anthropogenic, how then are they maintained in regions where the climate can support forest? Observation reveals that the savanna–forest boundary coincides with a dispersal barrier—the escarpment of the Central Plateau. Using a stepping-stone model, we show that in a limited dispersal landscape, a stable savanna–forest boundary can form because of fire–vegetation feedbacks. This phenomenon, referred to as range pinning, could explain why eastern lowland forests have not expanded into the mesic savannas of the Central Highlands. This work challenges the view that highland savannas in Madagascar are derived by human-lit fires and, more importantly, suggests that partial dispersal barriers and strong nonlinear feedbacks can pin biogeographical boundaries over a wide range of environmental conditions, providing a temporary buffer against climate change

Paleofire reconstruction based on an ensemble-member strategy applied to sedimentary charcoal

Paleofire events obtained from the statistical treatment of sedimentary charcoal records rely on a number of assumptions and user's choices, increasing the uncertainty of reconstructio\ns. Among the assumptions made when analyzing charcoal series is the choice of a filtering method for raw Charcoal Accumulation Rate (CHARraw). As there is no ultimate CHAR raw filtering method, we propose an ensemble-member approach to reconstruct fire events. We modified the commonly used procedure by including a routine replicating the analysis of a charcoal record using custom smoothing parameters. Dates of robust fire events, uncertainties in fire-return intervals and fire frequencies are derived from members' distributions. An application of the method is used to quantify uncertainties due to data treatment in two CHARraw sequences from two different biomes, subalpine and boreal

Assessing changes in global fire regimes

The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300.This study emerged during the PAGES‑supported Global Paleofire Working Group 2 workshop “Fire history baselines by biome” held in September 2016 at Château de la Tour, Beguey (Bordeaux, France) led by A.‑L. D. and Tim Brücher

Reconstructing grassland fire history using sedimentary charcoal: Considering count, size and shape

Citation: Leys, B. A., Commerford, J. L., & McLauchlan, K. K. (2017). Reconstructing grassland fire history using sedimentary charcoal: Considering count, size and shape. Plos One, 12(4), 15. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0176445Fire is a key Earth system process, with 80% of annual fire activity taking place in grassland areas. However, past fire regimes in grassland systems have been difficult to quantify due to challenges in interpreting the charcoal signal in depositional environments. To improve reconstructions of grassland fire regimes, it is essential to assess two key traits: (1) charcoal count, and (2) charcoal shape. In this study, we quantified the number of charcoal pieces in 51 sediment samples of ponds in the Great Plains and tested its relevance as a proxy for the fire regime by examining 13 potential factors influencing charcoal count, including various fire regime components (e.g. the fire frequency, the area burned, and the fire season), vegetation cover and pollen assemblages, and climate variables. We also quantified the width to length (W: L) ratio of charcoal particles, to assess its utility as a proxy of fuel types in grassland environments by direct comparison with vegetation cover and pollen assemblages. Our first conclusion is that charcoal particles produced by grassland fires are smaller than those produced by forest fires. Thus, a mesh size of 120 mu m as used in forested environments is too large for grassland ecosystems. We recommend counting all charcoal particles over 60 mu m in grasslands and mixed grass-forest environments to increase the number of samples with useful data. Second, a W: L ratio of 0.5 or smaller appears to be an indicator for fuel types, when vegetation surrounding the site is before composed of at least 40% grassland vegetation. Third, the area burned within 1060m of the depositional environments explained both the count and the area of charcoal particles. Therefore, changes in charcoal count or charcoal area through time indicate a change in area burned. The fire regimes of grassland systems, including both human and climatic influences on fire behavior, can be characterized by long-term charcoal records

Assessing changes in global fire regimes

PAGES, Past Global Changes, is funded by the Swiss Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Sciences and supported in kind by the University of Bern, Switzerland. Financial support was provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation award numbers 1916565, EAR-2011439, and EAR-2012123. Additional support was provided by the Utah Department of Natural Resources Watershed Restoration Initiative. SSS was supported by Brigham Young University Graduate Studies. MS was supported by National Science Centre, Poland (grant no. 2018/31/B/ST10/02498 and 2021/41/B/ST10/00060). JCA was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 101026211. PF contributed within the framework of the FCT-funded project no. UIDB/04033/2020. SGAF acknowledges support from Trond Mohn Stiftelse (TMS) and University of Bergen for the startup grant ‘TMS2022STG03’. JMP participation in this research was supported by the Forest Research Centre, a research unit funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia I.P. (FCT), Portugal (UIDB/00239/2020). A.-LD acknowledge PAGES, PICS CNRS 06484 project, CNRS-INSU, Région Nouvelle-Aquitaine, University of Bordeaux DRI and INQUA for workshop support.Background The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Results Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. Conclusion The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.Peer reviewe

Tree biomass reconstruction shows no lag in post-glacial afforestation of eastern Canada

Forest ecosystems in eastern Canada are particularly sensitive to climate change and may shift from carbon sinks to carbon sources in the coming decades. Understanding how forest biomass responded to past climate change is thus of crucial interest. But past biomass reconstruction still represents a challenge. Here we used transfer functions based on modern pollen assemblages and remote sensed biomass estimation to reconstruct and quantify, for the last 14 000 years, tree biomass dynamics for the six main tree genera of the boreal and mixed-wood forests (Abies, Acer, Betula, Picea, Pinus, Populus). We compared the mean genera and total biomass to climatic (summer temperatures and annual precipitation), physical (CO_2, insolation, ice area) and disturbance (burned biomass) variables, to identify the potential drivers influencing the long-term trends in tree biomass. Tree biomass was for most genera related with summer temperature, insolation and CO_2 levels; Picea was the exception and its biomass also correlated with annual precipitation. At the onset of the Holocene and during the Holocene Thermal Maximum c. 10000-6000 BP), tree biomass tracked the melting of the Laurentide Ice sheet with high values (>50 t.ha-1 and a total of 12 Pg). These values, in the range of modern forest ecosystems biomass, [...]The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Confidence levels for 1900 and 70% tree cover

Raster containing the confidence levels in defining forest and savanna distribution and boundaries for 1900 for forest defined as 70% tree cover threshold and for a probability > 0.5. The confidence levels are expressed between 0 (less confident), and 1 (more confident)

Confidence levels for 2000 and 70% tree cover

Raster containing the confidence levels in defining forest and savanna distribution and boundaries for 2000 for forest defined as 70% tree cover threshold and for a probability > 0.5. The confidence levels are expressed between 0 (less confident), and 1 (more confident)