The dynamics and determinants of Kuwait's long-run economic growth

This paper develops a quarterly macro-econometric model for the Kuwaiti economy estimated over the period 1979Q2-2013Q1, allowing us to investigate the long-run role of oil income in the development of Kuwait as well as the direct effects of oil revenue, foreign output, and equity price shocks on real output. More specifically, we examine to what extent Kuwaiti real output in the long run is shaped by oil revenue through their impact on capital accumulation, and technological transfers through foreign output. Using the same modelling strategy we also explore the role of oil income in terms of long-run private and public sector output growth (separately). The estimates suggest that real domestic output in the long run is influenced by oil revenues and foreign output (a proxy for technological progress), and technological growth in Kuwait is on a par with the rest of the world. Furthermore, while we show that both oil revenues and foreign output drive growth in the public sector, it seems that technological progress is the main (and only) driver for private sector real growth. Finally, our results show that oil revenue and global equity market shocks have a large and significant long-run impact on Kuwait's real output and public sector GDP. In comparison, the effects of the foreign output shock is muted

Marketing The Non-Profit Organizations,"The Jordan Museum as a case study"

The aim of this paper is to analyse the existing concepts of marketing and the difficulties of applying general marketing techniques in the Jordan Museum and highlighting the strengths, weakness, threats and opportunities that are facing the museum. The paper offers marketing suggestions that may influence and assist the Jordan museum to enhance its marketing structure. The gained information for the research was obtained byusing articles, books, case studies, interviews. This method is used to gain Varity of information, points of views, and attitudes. The questions deducted in the interviews focused on whether if the Museum in question is placed on the well-known tourist trail. Another focus was upon the tools & techniques should be used in marketing. The paper also investigated if there is any marketing plan considered and whether the museums in Jordan has been discussed or even mentioned in any of the international tourism or cultural conference’s Which Jordan is invited to. The result showed that The Jordan Museum lacks any marketing innovation and having no clear marketing plan. The museum can overcome this by reconsidering its priorities enclosing new marketing techniques.  Key Words: Museums, Marketing mix, Nonprofit Organization DOI: 10.7176/JTHS/40-0

Brucellosis remains a neglected disease inthe developing world: a call forinterdisciplinary action

Brucellosis places significant burdens on the human healthcare system and limits the economic growth of individuals, communities, and nations where such development is especially important to diminish the prevalence of poverty. The implementation of public policy focused on mitigating the socioeconomic effects of brucellosis in human and animal populations is desperately needed. When developing a plan to mitigate the associated consequences, it is vital to consider both the abstract and quantifiable effects. This requires an interdisciplinary and collaborative, or One Health, approach that consists of public education, the development of an infrastructure for disease surveillance and reporting in both veterinary and medical fields, and campaigns for control in livestock and wildlife species

The Palestinian Terrestrial Vertebrate Fauna Preserved at the Biology Exhibitions of the Universities of the Gaza Strip

The Gaza Strip (365 km2 ) of Palestine (27,000 km2 ) is home to a wealth of terrestrial vertebrate fauna. Some of these faunistic species find their ways to preservation at the local universities. Hence, the current study comes to document the Palestinian terrestrial vertebrate fauna acquired by the biology exhibitions (BEs) of Al-Azhar University, Islamic University of Gaza and Al-Aqsa University that are located at the Gaza City of the Gaza Strip. The amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals preserved at BEs of the universities in question were surveyed and scientifically classified during a three-month period extending from January to March, 2012. The study showed that all BEs of local universities are underdeveloped, lacking attention and suffer from specimen scarcity and good preservation. The BE at Al-Azhar University is the best in the arrangement and preservation of bird specimens. A total number of 200 specimens belonging to 54 terrestrial vertebrate fauna species, 39 families and 17 orders was recorded at BEs. Reptiles constituted 40.7% of the total species recorded, followed by birds (38.9%), mammals (14.8%) and amphibians (5.6%). The Islamic University of Gaza was considered the best in terms of the number of preserved species (39.8%), followed by Al-Azhar University (36.3%) and Al-Aqsa University (23.9%). The Common Toad (Bufo viridis) was the most preserved among the amphibian species recorded. Squamata was the biggest reptilian order, comprising 20 species (8 lizards and 12 snakes), with the Syrian Black Snake (Coluber jugularis asianus) was the commonest. The Palestine Viper (Vipera palaestinae) is endemic to Palestine and most venomous and dangerous to human health. The Great White Pelican (Pelecanus onocrotalus) was the largest Palestinian bird preserved at BE of Al-Azhar University. The Egyptian Mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) and the Common Badger (Meles meles) were the biggest mammalian specimens preserved, while the Palestine Mole-rat (Spalax leucodon ehrenbergi) was the only Palestine endemic species encountered among the preserved mammals. Finally, the improvement of BEs of local universities and the construction of a Central Museum of Natural History is highly recommended in order to change the Palestinians’ attitudes toward a sustainable ecological conservation in the Gaza Strip

DISTRIBUTION OF DERMATOPHYTES FROM SOILS OF URBAN AND RURAL AREAS OF CITIES OF PARAIBA STATE, BRAZIL

SUMMARY The dermatophytes, keratinophilic fungi, represent important microorganisms of the soil microbiota, where there are cosmopolitan species and others with restricted geographic distribution. The aim of this study was to broaden the knowledge about the presence of dermatophytes in soils of urban (empty lots, schools, slums, squares, beaches and homes) and rural areas and about the evolution of their prevalence in soils of varying pH in cities of the four mesoregions of Paraiba State, Brazil. Soil samples were collected from 31 cities of Paraiba State. Of 212 samples, 62% showed fungal growth, particularly those from the Mata Paraibana mesoregion (43.5%), which has a tropical climate, hot and humid. Soil pH varied from 4.65 to 9.06, with 71% of the growth of dermatophytes occurring at alkaline pH (7.02 - 9.06) (ρ = 0.000). Of 131 strains isolated, 57.3% were geophilic species, particularly Trichophyton terrestre (31.3%) and Mycrosporum gypseum (21.4%). M. nanum and T. ajelloi were isolated for the first time in Paraiba State. The zoophilic species identified were T. mentagrophytes var. mentagrophytes (31.3 %) and T. verrucosum (7.6 %), and T. tonsurans was isolated as an anthropophilic species. The soils of urban areas including empty lots, schools, slums and squares of cities in the mesoregions of Paraiba State were found to be the most suitable reservoirs for almost all dermatophytes; their growth may have been influenced by environmental factors, soils with residues of human and/or animal keratin and alkaline pH

Cyanobacterial lipopolysaccharides and human health – a review

Cyanobacterial lipopolysaccharide/s (LPS) are frequently cited in the cyanobacteria literature as toxins responsible for a variety of heath effects in humans, from skin rashes to gastrointestinal, respiratory and allergic reactions. The attribution of toxic properties to cyanobacterial LPS dates from the 1970s, when it was thought that lipid A, the toxic moiety of LPS, was structurally and functionally conserved across all Gram-negative bacteria. However, more recent research has shown that this is not the case, and lipid A structures are now known to be very different, expressing properties ranging from LPS agonists, through weak endotoxicity to LPS antagonists. Although cyanobacterial LPS is widely cited as a putative toxin, most of the small number of formal research reports describe cyanobacterial LPS as weakly toxic compared to LPS from the Enterobacteriaceae. We systematically reviewed the literature on cyanobacterial LPS, and also examined the much lager body of literature relating to heterotrophic bacterial LPS and the atypical lipid A structures of some photosynthetic bacteria. While the literature on the biological activity of heterotrophic bacterial LPS is overwhelmingly large and therefore difficult to review for the purposes of exclusion, we were unable to find a convincing body of evidence to suggest that heterotrophic bacterial LPS, in the absence of other virulence factors, is responsible for acute gastrointestinal, dermatological or allergic reactions via natural exposure routes in humans. There is a danger that initial speculation about cyanobacterial LPS may evolve into orthodoxy without basis in research findings. No cyanobacterial lipid A structures have been described and published to date, so a recommendation is made that cyanobacteriologists should not continue to attribute such a diverse range of clinical symptoms to cyanobacterial LPS without research confirmation

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Whole genome sequencing of Brucella melitensis isolated from 57 patients in Germany reveals high diversity in strains from Middle East

Brucellosis, a worldwide common bacterial zoonotic disease, has become quite rare in Northern and Western Europe. However, since 2014 a significant increase of imported infections caused by Brucella (B.) melitensis has been noticed in Germany. Patients predominantly originated from Middle East including Turkey and Syria. These circumstances afforded an opportunity to gain insights into the population structure of Brucella strains. Brucella-isolates from 57 patients were recovered between January 2014 and June 2016 with culture confirmed brucellosis by the National Consultant Laboratory for Brucella. Their whole genome sequences were generated using the Illumina MiSeq platform. A whole genome-based SNP typing assay was developed in order to resolve geographically attributed genetic clusters. Results were compared to MLVA typing results, the current gold-standard of Brucella typing. In addition, sequences were examined for possible genetic variation within target regions of molecular diagnostic assays. Phylogenetic analyses revealed spatial clustering and distinguished strains from different patients in either case, whereas multiple isolates from a single patient or technical replicates showed identical SNP and MLVA profiles. By including WGS data from the NCBI database, five major genotypes were identified. Notably, strains originating from Turkey showed a high diversity and grouped into seven subclusters of genotype II. MLVA analysis congruently clustered all isolates and predominantly matched the East Mediterranean genetic clade. This study confirms whole-genome based SNP-analysis as a powerful tool for accurate typing of B. melitensis. Furthermore it allows special allocation and therefore provides useful information on the geographic origin for trace-back analysis. However, the lack of reliable metadata in public databases often prevents a resolution below geographic regions or country levels and corresponding precise trace-back analysis. Once this obstacle is resolved, WGS-derived bacterial typing adds an important method to complement epidemiological surveys during outbreak investigations. This is the first report of a detailed genetic investigation of an extensive collection of B. melitensis strains isolated from human cases in Germany