Foreign Capital Inflows and Domestic Savings in Pakistan: Cointegration Techniques and Error Correction Modelling

The various form of inflow of foreign capital (loans, FDI, grant and portfolio) was welcome in developing countries to bridge the gap between domestic saving and domestic investment and therefore, to accelerate growth [Chenery and Strout (1966)]. Some other have been challenged the traditional view that foreign aid impedes domestic savings growth and mobilisation and have economic growth.1 Much attention have been paid in past 30 years, relationship between foreign capital flows and domestic saving, the main purpose of these studies have been determined whether in less developed countries foreign capital inflow and domestic saving are complementary or substitute. However, there is a controversy at theoretical and empirical levels, over the effects of foreign capital on both economic growth and national saving. A number of studies in Pakistan have been conducted during the early 1990s to examine the relationship between saving and foreign capital inflow.2 All studies shows the inverse relationship between foreign capital inflows3 (aggregate level) and saving rate, but the impact of FCI at disaggregate levels (loans, grants, FDI) on saving rate show different magnitude and signs, similarly impact of FCI on decomposition of saving rate (Public, private, household, corporate) also have different magnitude and sign. However, the most important problem associated with previous studies is that these are based on the assumption that the time series data that are being used are stationary.

Political Economy of Fiscal Reforms in the 1990s

Throughout the decade of the 1990s, major emphasis in Pakistan remained on fiscal reform as a part of the reform programmes undertaken by the various governments of Pakistan. Fiscal reform assumes significance considering the high budget deficits that Pakistan has been experiencing. These have added to Pakistan’s total debt burden in general and external debt in particular. Increase in the burden of debt adds to debt-servicing expenditure which further feeds back into the issue of high fiscal deficit. Debt-servicing increased to almost 47 percent1 by the middle of the decade of 1990s and comprised 8.3 percent of the GDP, up from less than 1 percent mid-1960s. Pakistan’s external debt at over $32 billion2 in 1998 was 41 percent of its GNP which was amongst the highest in the South Asian region with India’s at 20 percent of GNP in the same year and Sri Lanka’s also at 41 percent3 of its GNP. In this paper, we attempt to explore the rationale behind the emphases on the improvement in both the deficit-to-GDP and the tax-to-GDP ratios that have remained the cornerstones of Pakistan’s fiscal reform effort in the decade of the 1990s. Section 2 is a discussion of the extent of successes and failures of the fiscal reform effort thus far and explores the relationship between tax generation and budget deficit. Section 3 discusses the impact of expenditures on budget deficit. Section 4 shows the rise in dependence on external sources of financing. Section 5 gives the conclusions

Foreign Capital Inflows and Domestic Savings in Pakistan: Cointegration Techniques and Error Correction Modelling

The various form of inflow of foreign capital (loans, FDI, grant and portfolio) was welcome in developing countries to bridge the gap between domestic saving and domestic investment and therefore, to accelerate growth [Chenery and Strout (1966)]. Some other have been challenged the traditional view that foreign aid impedes domestic savings growth and mobilisation and have economic growth.1 Much attention have been paid in past 30 years, relationship between foreign capital flows and domestic saving, the main purpose of these studies have been determined whether in less developed countries foreign capital inflow and domestic saving are complementary or substitute. However, there is a controversy at theoretical and empirical levels, over the effects of foreign capital on both economic growth and national saving. A number of studies in Pakistan have been conducted during the early 1990s to examine the relationship between saving and foreign capital inflow.2 All studies shows the inverse relationship between foreign capital inflows3 (aggregate level) and saving rate, but the impact of FCI at disaggregate levels (loans, grants, FDI) on saving rate show different magnitude and signs, similarly impact of FCI on decomposition of saving rate (Public, private, household, corporate) also have different magnitude and sign

Tax Concessions and Investment Behaviour

The Government of Pakistan, like many other developing countries, has opted for tax holidays as an important fiscal measure to encourage rapid industrialisation in the backward areas. This concession is also supplemented by several other economic and non-economic measures including import duty, and depreciation allowances. Mintz (1990) discusses the efficacy of tax holidays in the presence of accelerated depreciation allowances concludes that tax holidays which are designed to increase capital formation may end up penalising capital formation. Mintz’s (1990) conclusion is based on the assumption that if the assets are long-lived, and the income tax system allows deductibility of accelerated depreciation but cannot be deferred, then the tax holidays, by preventing depreciation deduction in the early period may actually penalise investment during the tax holiday period. If on the other hand the depreciation allowance is deferred till the end of tax holiday period, the tax system is genuinely generous and provides a real incentive for capital formation

Ocular manifestation, complications and aetiological factors in Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis

Abstract OBJECTIVE: To describe the ocular manifestations of Stevens-Johnson Syndrome/Toxic Epidermal Necrosis among inpatients at a tertiary care hospital. METHODS: The retrospective observational descriptive study was carried out at the Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, and comprised data on age, gender, aetiology and ocular findings related to patients diagnosed with Stevens-Johnson Syndrome/ToxicEpidermal Necrosis between January 2000 and December 2011. SPSS 19 was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: There were 87 patients; 48(55.2%) of them being males.The overall mean age was 33.2±22.2 years, ranging from 1 month to 84 years. The most common aetiology was idiopathic 20(23%) followed by non-steroidal inflammatory drugs and anti-epileptics 11(12.6%) each. Besides, 84(96.6%) patients had oral mucosal involvement whereas 45(51.7%) had ocular and 27(31.0%) had genital-mucosal involvement. Glassroding was performed in 16(18.4%) patients due to minor conjunctival adhesions. CONCLUSION: Ocular manifestations of varying severity were frequent, with drugs being the most common aetiolog

Genetic Variants at the Apo-A1 Gene in Association with Coronary Artery Disease

The aim of this study was to investigate whether the genetic variants of apolipoprotein A1: MspI polymorphisms in non translated region at -75bp upstream and +83bp in the first intron, had any impact on the development of CAD. A total of 400 unrelated adult subjects were enrolled in the study (200 CAD patients & 200 CAD-free controls) from the Kashmir region. Plasma levels of lipids were estimated for each sample by using photometric system. DNA extracted from blood samples was amplified by means of polymerase chain reaction, and then subjected to RFLP by using MspI enzyme; resolving the product on 3% agarose gel stained with ethidium bromide, and visualized under UV light. The G ?A substitution a

Effect of early tranexamic acid administration on mortality, hysterectomy, and other morbidities in women with post-partum haemorrhage (WOMAN): an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Post-partum haemorrhage is the leading cause of maternal death worldwide. Early administration of tranexamic acid reduces deaths due to bleeding in trauma patients. We aimed to assess the effects of early administration of tranexamic acid on death, hysterectomy, and other relevant outcomes in women with post-partum haemorrhage. Methods In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited women aged 16 years and older with a clinical diagnosis of post-partum haemorrhage after a vaginal birth or caesarean section from 193 hospitals in 21 countries. We randomly assigned women to receive either 1 g intravenous tranexamic acid or matching placebo in addition to usual care. If bleeding continued after 30 min, or stopped and restarted within 24 h of the first dose, a second dose of 1 g of tranexamic acid or placebo could be given. Patients were assigned by selection of a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight numbered packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Participants, care givers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. We originally planned to enrol 15 000 women with a composite primary endpoint of death from all-causes or hysterectomy within 42 days of giving birth. However, during the trial it became apparent that the decision to conduct a hysterectomy was often made at the same time as randomisation. Although tranexamic acid could influence the risk of death in these cases, it could not affect the risk of hysterectomy. We therefore increased the sample size from 15 000 to 20 000 women in order to estimate the effect of tranexamic acid on the risk of death from post-partum haemorrhage. All analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This trial is registered with ISRCTN76912190 (Dec 8, 2008); ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00872469; and PACTR201007000192283. Findings Between March, 2010, and April, 2016, 20 060 women were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive tranexamic acid (n=10 051) or placebo (n=10 009), of whom 10 036 and 9985, respectively, were included in the analysis. Death due to bleeding was significantly reduced in women given tranexamic acid (155 [1·5%] of 10 036 patients vs 191 [1·9%] of 9985 in the placebo group, risk ratio [RR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·65–1·00; p=0·045), especially in women given treatment within 3 h of giving birth (89 [1·2%] in the tranexamic acid group vs 127 [1·7%] in the placebo group, RR 0·69, 95% CI 0·52–0·91; p=0·008). All other causes of death did not differ significantly by group. Hysterectomy was not reduced with tranexamic acid (358 [3·6%] patients in the tranexamic acid group vs 351 [3·5%] in the placebo group, RR 1·02, 95% CI 0·88–1·07; p=0·84). The composite primary endpoint of death from all causes or hysterectomy was not reduced with tranexamic acid (534 [5·3%] deaths or hysterectomies in the tranexamic acid group vs 546 [5·5%] in the placebo group, RR 0·97, 95% CI 0·87-1·09; p=0·65). Adverse events (including thromboembolic events) did not differ significantly in the tranexamic acid versus placebo group. Interpretation Tranexamic acid reduces death due to bleeding in women with post-partum haemorrhage with no adverse effects. When used as a treatment for postpartum haemorrhage, tranexamic acid should be given as soon as possible after bleeding onset. Funding London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Pfizer, UK Department of Health, Wellcome Trust, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Search for dark matter particles produced in association with a Higgs boson in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

© 2020, The Author(s). A search for dark matter (DM) particles is performed using events with a Higgs boson candidate and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on proton- proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. The search is performed in five Higgs boson decay channels: h → b b ¯ , γγ, τ+τ−, W+W−, and ZZ. The results from the individual channels are combined to maximize the sensitivity of the analysis. No significant excess over the expected standard model background is observed in any of the five channels or in their combination. Limits are set on DM production in the context of two simplified models. The results are also interpreted in terms of a spin-independent DM-nucleon scattering cross section and compared to those from direct-detection DM experiments. This is the first search for DM particles produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying to a pair of W or Z bosons, and the first statistical combination based on five Higgs boson decay channels. [Figure not available: see fulltext.].SCOAP