Climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean: A basis for regional impact assessment

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered to provide the best basis for the construction of future climate change scenarios. GCM output cannot, however, be widely or directly used in many impact assessments because of their relatively coarse spatial scale. In order to overcome the problems of mismatch in scale and of reliability, techniques for downscaling GCM output have been developed. A number of different downscaling methods have been proposed and can be divided into two general categories: model-based and empirical. Two examples of empirical downscaling are presented. First, scenarios for the Mediterranean region as a whole, constructed using a Geographical Information System to interpolate GCM output to a 1 km by 1 km grid based on information such as height above sea level, distance to the sea, and latitude/longitude. Second, scenarios at the river-basin scale for study regions in Spain and Italy, based on changes in atmospheric circulation patterns

The survival of witchcraft prosecutions and witch belief in South West Scotland

During the era of the Scottish witch-hunts, Dumfries and Galloway was one of the last regions to initiate witch prosecutions, but it was also one of the most reluctant to completely surrender all belief in witches until a comparatively late date. In the late seventeeth and early eighteenth centuries south-west Scotland, better known for the persecution of covenanters, took the practice of witchcraft and charming very seriously indeed, and for perhaps longer than other parts of Scotland, though the area has received surprisingly little scholarly investigation. The trial evidence is not incompatible with that found elsewhere though there is less demonic content. Accusations of witchcraft in this region were mostly concerned with the troubles of everyday life, agricultural problems, family tensions and disagreements between neighbours. From 1670 to about 1740, the very decades that were giving birth to the Scottish Enlightenment, learned interest in the supernatural was actually on the increase and the topic received an unprecedented level of questioning, investigation, and scrutiny. Ironically, the ‘superstitions’ that both church and state had been attempting to eradicate for some two hundred years were now being used to defend religion against the growing threat of atheism. The zeal of the ministers does seem to have contributed to the endurance of witch beliefs in the South West, as elsewhere. Against this backdrop, the survival of witch belief and the continued prosecution of witches in southwest Scotland is examined, thus contributing to our understanding of the individualistic nature of witch persecution and the various dynamics at play within the Scottish witch-hunting experience

Uplift and subsidence associated with the great Aceh-Andaman earthquake of 2004

Rupture of the Sunda megathrust on 26 December 2004 produced broad regions of uplift and subsidence. We define the pivot line separating these regions as a first step in defining the lateral extent and the downdip limit of rupture during that great M_w ≈ 9.2 earthquake. In the region of the Andaman and Nicobar islands we rely exclusively on the interpretation of satellite imagery and a tidal model. At the southern limit of the great rupture we rely principally on field measurements of emerged coral microatolls. Uplift extends from the middle of Simeulue Island, Sumatra, at ~2.5°N, to Preparis Island, Myanmar (Burma), at ~14.9°N. Thus the rupture is ~1600 km long. The distance from the pivot line to the trench varies appreciably. The northern and western Andaman Islands rose, whereas the southern and eastern portion of the islands subsided. The Nicobar Islands and the west coast of Aceh province, Sumatra, subsided. Tilt at the southern end of the rupture is steep; the distance from 1.5 m of uplift to the pivot line is just 60 km. Our method of using satellite imagery to recognize changes in elevation relative to sea surface height and of using a tidal model to place quantitative bounds on coseismic uplift or subsidence is a novel approach that can be adapted to other forms of remote sensing and can be applied to other subduction zones in tropical regions

Primary care Identification and Referral to Improve Safety of women experiencing domestic violence (IRIS): protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Domestic violence, which may be psychological, physical, sexual, financial or emotional, is a major public health problem due to the long-term health consequences for women who have experienced it and for their children who witness it. In populations of women attending general practice, the prevalence of physical or sexual abuse in the past year from a partner or ex-partner ranges from 6 to 23%, and lifetime prevalence from 21 to 55%. Domestic violence is particularly important in general practice because women have many contacts with primary care clinicians and because women experiencing abuse identify doctors and nurses as professionals from whom they would like to get support. Yet health professionals rarely ask about domestic violence and have little or no training in how to respond to disclosure of abuse. METHODS/DESIGN: This protocol describes IRIS, a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial with the general practice as unit of randomisation. Our trial tests the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a training and support programme targeted at general practice teams. The primary outcome is referral of women to specialist domestic violence agencies. Forty-eight practices in two UK cities (Bristol and London) are randomly allocated, using minimisation, into intervention and control groups. The intervention, based on an adult learning model in an educational outreach framework, has been designed to address barriers to asking women about domestic violence and to encourage appropriate responses to disclosure and referral to specialist domestic violence agencies. Multidisciplinary training sessions are held with clinicians and administrative staff in each of the intervention practices, with periodic feedback of identification and referral data to practice teams. Intervention practices have a prompt to ask about abuse integrated in the electronic medical record system. Other components of the intervention include an IRIS champion in each practice and a direct referral pathway to a named domestic violence advocate. DISCUSSION: This is the first European randomised controlled trial of an intervention to improve the health care response to domestic violence. The findings will have the potential to inform training and service provision. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN74012786

Mother's and children's ADHD genetic risk, household chaos and children's ADHD symptoms:A gene–environment correlation study

BACKGROUND: Chaotic home environments may contribute to children's attention‐deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms. However, ADHD genetic risk may also influence household chaos. This study investigated whether children in chaotic households had more ADHD symptoms, if mothers and children with higher ADHD genetic risk lived in more chaotic households, and the joint association of genetic risk and household chaos on the longitudinal course of ADHD symptoms across childhood. METHODS: Participants were mothers and children from the Environmental Risk (E‐Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a UK population‐representative birth cohort of 2,232 twins. Children's ADHD symptoms were assessed at ages 5, 7, 10 and 12 years. Household chaos was rated by research workers at ages 7, 10 and 12, and by mother's and twin's self‐report at age 12. Genome‐wide ADHD polygenic risk scores (PRS) were calculated for mothers (n = 880) and twins (n = 1,999); of these, n = 871 mothers and n = 1,925 children had information on children's ADHD and household chaos. RESULTS: Children in more chaotic households had higher ADHD symptoms. Mothers and children with higher ADHD PRS lived in more chaotic households. Children's ADHD PRS was associated with household chaos over and above mother's PRS, suggesting evocative gene–environment correlation. Children in more chaotic households had higher baseline ADHD symptoms and a slower rate of decline in symptoms. However, sensitivity analyses estimated that gene–environment correlation accounted for a large proportion of the association of household chaos on ADHD symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Children's ADHD genetic risk was independently associated with higher levels of household chaos, emphasising the active role of children in shaping their home environment. Our findings suggest that household chaos partly reflects children's genetic risk for ADHD, calling into question whether household chaos directly influences children's core ADHD symptoms. Our findings highlight the importance of considering parent and child genetic risk in relation to apparent environmental exposures

Sources of Long-Range Anthropogenic Noise in Southern California and Implications for Tectonic Tremor Detection

Peer reviewe

Mainshocks are aftershocks of conditional foreshocks: How do foreshock statistical properties emerge from aftershock laws

The inverse Omori law for foreshocks discovered in the 1970s states that the rate of earthquakes prior to a mainshock increases on average as a power law ~ 1/(t_c-t)^p' of the time to the mainshock occurring at t_c. Here, we show that this law results from the direct Omori law for aftershocks describing the power law decay ~ 1/(t-t_c)^p of seismicity after an earthquake, provided that any earthquake can trigger its suit of aftershocks. In this picture, the seismic activity at any time is the sum of the spontaneous tectonic loading and of the activity triggered by all preceding events weighted by their corresponding Omori law. The inverse Omori law then emerges as the expected (in a statistical sense) trajectory of seismicity, conditioned on the fact that it leads to the burst of seismic activity accompanying the mainshock. The often documented apparent decrease of the b-value of the GR law at the approach to the main shock results straightforwardly from the conditioning of the path of seismic activity culminating at the mainshock. In the space domain, we predict that the phenomenon of aftershock diffusion must have its mirror process reflected into an inward migration of foreshocks towards the mainshock. In this model, foreshock sequences are special aftershock sequences which are modified by the condition to end up in a burst of seismicity associated with the mainshock.Comment: Latex document of 35 pages, 10 figure

Change and Exchange: Economies of Literature and Knowledge in Early Modern Europe

The introductory essay outlines the way in which Change and Exchange places literature, and, in a wider sense, imaginative practice, at the centre of early modern economic knowledge. Probing the affinity between economic and metaphorical experience in terms of the transactional processes of change and exchange, it sets up the parameters within which the essays in the volume collectively forge a language to grasp early modern economic phenomena and their epistemic dimensions. It prepares the reader for the stimulating combination of materials that the book presents: the range of generic contexts engendered by emergent economic practices, structures of feeling and modes of knowing made available by new economic relations, and economies of transformation in discursive domains that are distinct from ‘economics’ as we understand it but cognate in their intuition of change and exchange as shaping agents

Automating linear accelerator quality assurance

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/135049/1/mp1415.pd

Mapping the drivers of parasitic weed abundance at a national scale : a new approach applied to Striga asiatica in the mid‐west of Madagascar

The parasitic weed genus Striga causes huge losses to crop production in sub‐Saharan Africa, estimated to be in excess of $7 billion per year. There is a paucity of reliable distribution data for Striga ; however, such data are urgently needed to understand current drivers, better target control efforts, as well as to predict future risks. To address this, we developed a methodology to enable rapid, large‐scale monitoring of Striga populations. We used this approach to uncover the factors that currently drive the abundance and distribution of Striga asiatica in Madagascar. Two long‐distance transects were established across the middle‐west region of Madagascar in which S. asiatica abundance in fields adjacent to the road was estimated. Management, crop structure and soil data were also collected. Analysis of the data suggests that crop variety, companion crop and previous crop were correlated with Striga density. A positive relationship between within‐field Striga density and the density of the nearest neighbouring fields indicates that spatial configuration and connectivity of suitable habitats is also important in determining Striga spread. Our results demonstrate that we are able to capture distribution and management data for Striga density at a landscape scale and use this to understand the ecological and agronomic drivers of abundance. The importance of crop varieties and cropping patterns is significant, as these are key socio‐economic elements of Malagasy cropping practices. Therefore, they have the potential to be promoted as readily available control options, rather than novel technologies requiring introduction