A method for estimating the origin time of an ensuing mainshock by observations of preshock crustal seismic deformation

Observations on accelerating crustal deformation due to the generation of intermediate magnitude preshocks in the Aegean area are used to propose a method for prediction of the origin time of an ensuing mainshock. The method is based on a precursory seismic excitation that occurs in the preshock region at a time correlated to the origin time of the oncoming mainshock. The uncertainty in this prediction is of the order of ± 1.5 years with relatively high confidence ('90%)

Foreshock and aftershock sequences of the Cremasta earthquake and their relation to the waterloading of the Cremasta artificial lake

Investigation of the time and magnitude distributionof the fore- and aftershocks of the Cremasta lake earthquake which occurredon February 5, 1966 is made. The deformation characteristics andspatial distribution of these shocks is also studied. Strong evidence is presentedthat the foreshocks and the main shock have been triggered by thewaterloading of the Cremasta artificial lake