Compensatory Breeding in Years Following Drought in a Desert-Dwelling Cooperative Breeder

Variation in weather patterns can influence reproductive effort and success not only within but also between breeding seasons. Where environmental conditions can be highly variable between years, the weather, and particularly extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts, may exert a strong influence on reproductive effort (number of breeding attempts) and success (number of surviving young) from one breeding season to the next. We used a 15-year dataset for a cooperatively-breeding bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor, to determine the impact of high temperatures and drought on reproductive effort and success. We tested the influence on reproductive effort and success of mean daily maximum air temperature and drought both within a breeding season, to determine the relative importance of current conditions, and during the previous breeding season, to determine the relative importance of compensatory effects in response to prior conditions. Reproductive effort and success were lower during breeding seasons characterised by drought, and higher in the breeding seasons that followed droughts, but were not predicted by mean daily maximum temperatures measured over the full length of the breeding season. We provide evidence of compensatory breeding following drought in a bird species endemic to a semi-arid ecosystem and suggest that compensatory mechanisms may be an important part of both long-term population persistence and post-drought population recovery.DST-NRF Centre of Excellence at the FitzPatrick Institute for African Ornithology Oppenheimer Memorial Trust (Grant No. 20747/01 to ARB) British Ornithologists’ Union Australian Research Council (Grant No. FT110100188 to ARR) National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant No. 110506 to SJC

Birth defects surveillance· A pilot system in the Cape Peninsula

A pilot birth defects surveillance system was established in 1982 as part of an epidemiological baseline study pertaining to potential changes in water quality in the Cape Peninsula. The methodology used for reporting birth defects for two information systems, one hospital-based and the other population- based, utilising statutory notifications of births, is described. Preliminary birth defect rates by cause are presented for a hospital-based system and are consistent with rates reported internationally. The system based on statutory notifications showed gross under-reporting

Energy performance of diaphragm walls used as heat exchangers

The possibility of equipping diaphragm walls as ground heat exchangers to meet the full or partial heating and cooling demands of overlying or adjacent buildings has been explored in recent years. In this paper, the factors affecting the energy performance of diaphragm walls equipped as heat exchangers are investigated through finite element modelling. The numerical approach employed is first validated using available experimental data and then applied to perform parametric analyses. Parameters considered in the analysis include panel width, the ratio between the wall and excavation depths, heat transfer pipe spacing, concrete cover, heat-carrier fluid velocity, concrete thermal properties and the temperature difference between the air within the excavation and the soil behind the wall. The results indicate that increasing the number of pipes by reducing their spacing is the primary route to increasing energy efficiency in the short term. However, the thermal properties of the wall concrete and the temperature excess within the excavation space are also important, with the latter becoming the most significant in the medium to long term. This confirms the benefits of exploiting the retaining walls installed for railway tunnels and metro stations where additional sources of heat are available

A preliminary study of genetic factors that influence susceptibility to bovine tuberculosis in the British cattle herd

Associations between specific host genes and susceptibility to Mycobacterial infections such as tuberculosis have been reported in several species. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) impacts greatly the UK cattle industry, yet genetic predispositions have yet to be identified. We therefore used a candidate gene approach to study 384 cattle of which 160 had reacted positively to an antigenic skin test (‘reactors’). Our approach was unusual in that it used microsatellite markers, embraced high breed diversity and focused particularly on detecting genes showing heterozygote advantage, a mode of action often overlooked in SNP-based studies. A panel of neutral markers was used to control for population substructure and using a general linear model-based approach we were also able to control for age. We found that substructure was surprisingly weak and identified two genomic regions that were strongly associated with reactor status, identified by markers INRA111 and BMS2753. In general the strength of association detected tended to vary depending on whether age was included in the model. At INRA111 a single genotype appears strongly protective with an overall odds ratio of 2.2, the effect being consistent across nine diverse breeds. Our results suggest that breeding strategies could be devised that would appreciably increase genetic resistance of cattle to bTB (strictly, reduce the frequency of incidence of reactors) with implications for the current debate concerning badger-culling

Modeling Evolutionary Dynamics of Epigenetic Mutations in Hierarchically Organized Tumors

The cancer stem cell (CSC) concept is a highly debated topic in cancer research. While experimental evidence in favor of the cancer stem cell theory is apparently abundant, the results are often criticized as being difficult to interpret. An important reason for this is that most experimental data that support this model rely on transplantation studies. In this study we use a novel cellular Potts model to elucidate the dynamics of established malignancies that are driven by a small subset of CSCs. Our results demonstrate that epigenetic mutations that occur during mitosis display highly altered dynamics in CSC-driven malignancies compared to a classical, non-hierarchical model of growth. In particular, the heterogeneity observed in CSC-driven tumors is considerably higher. We speculate that this feature could be used in combination with epigenetic (methylation) sequencing studies of human malignancies to prove or refute the CSC hypothesis in established tumors without the need for transplantation. Moreover our tumor growth simulations indicate that CSC-driven tumors display evolutionary features that can be considered beneficial during tumor progression. Besides an increased heterogeneity they also exhibit properties that allow the escape of clones from local fitness peaks. This leads to more aggressive phenotypes in the long run and makes the neoplasm more adaptable to stringent selective forces such as cancer treatment. Indeed when therapy is applied the clone landscape of the regrown tumor is more aggressive with respect to the primary tumor, whereas the classical model demonstrated similar patterns before and after therapy. Understanding these often counter-intuitive fundamental properties of (non-)hierarchically organized malignancies is a crucial step in validating the CSC concept as well as providing insight into the therapeutical consequences of this model

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): the effect of close interactions on star formation in galaxies

The modification of star formation (SF) in galaxy interactions is a complex process, with SF observed to be both enhanced in major mergers and suppressed in minor pair interactions. Such changes likely to arise on short timescales and be directly related to the galaxy-galaxy interaction time. Here we investigate the link between dynamical phase and direct measures of SF on different timescales for pair galaxies, targeting numerous star-formation rate (SFR) indicators and comparing to pair separation, individual galaxy mass and pair mass ratio. We split our sample into the higher (primary) and lower (secondary) mass galaxies in each pair and find that SF is indeed enhanced in all primary galaxies but suppressed in secondaries of minor mergers. We find that changes in SF of primaries is consistent in both major and minor mergers, suggesting that SF in the more massive galaxy is agnostic to pair mass ratio. We also find that SF is enhanced/suppressed more strongly for short-time duration SFR indicators (e.g. H-alpha), highlighting recent changes to SF in these galaxies, which are likely to be induced by the interaction. We propose a scenario where the lower mass galaxy has its SF suppressed by gas heating or stripping, while the higher mass galaxy has its SF enhanced, potentially by tidal gas turbulence and shocks. This is consistent with the seemingly contradictory observations for both SF suppression and enhancement in close pairs

Screening for data clustering in multicenter studies: the residual intraclass correlation

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Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): the effect of close interactions on star formation in galaxies

The modification of star formation (SF) in galaxy interactions is a complex process, with SF observed to be both enhanced in major mergers and suppressed in minor pair interactions. Such changes likely to arise on short timescales and be directly related to the galaxy-galaxy interaction time. Here we investigate the link between dynamical phase and direct measures of SF on different timescales for pair galaxies, targeting numerous star-formation rate (SFR) indicators and comparing to pair separation, individual galaxy mass and pair mass ratio. We split our sample into the higher (primary) and lower (secondary) mass galaxies in each pair and find that SF is indeed enhanced in all primary galaxies but suppressed in secondaries of minor mergers. We find that changes in SF of primaries is consistent in both major and minor mergers, suggesting that SF in the more massive galaxy is agnostic to pair mass ratio. We also find that SF is enhanced/suppressed more strongly for short-time duration SFR indicators (e.g. H-alpha), highlighting recent changes to SF in these galaxies, which are likely to be induced by the interaction. We propose a scenario where the lower mass galaxy has its SF suppressed by gas heating or stripping, while the higher mass galaxy has its SF enhanced, potentially by tidal gas turbulence and shocks. This is consistent with the seemingly contradictory observations for both SF suppression and enhancement in close pairs

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation