Human health risk assessment for silver catfish Schilbe intermedius Rüppell, 1832, from two impoundments in the Olifants River, Limpopo, South Africa

As rural populations grow and rural poverty increases, consumption of fish from contaminated river systems will increase to supplement dietary protein requirements. The concentrations of metals in fish muscle tissue at two impoundments of the Olifants River (Flag Boshielo Dam and the Phalaborwa Barrage) were measured, and a human health risk assessment following Heath et al. (2004) conducted to investigate whether consumption of Schilbe intermedius from these impoundments posed a risk to human health. The results confirmed that metals are accumulating in the muscle tissue of S. intermedius. No patterns were observed in the ratios of the metals bio-accumulated at each impoundment. The human health risk assessment identified that all fish analysed exceeded the recommended levels for safe consumption for lead and chromium and about 50% exceeded the recommended level for antimony at Flag Boshielo Dam. Almost all fish analysed exceeded the recommended level for lead and more than 50% exceeded the recommended level for arsenic at the Phalaborwa Barrage. We conclude that weekly consumption of S. intermedius from these impoundments may pose an unacceptable risk to the health of rural communities.Keywords: risk assessment, human health, Schilbe intermedius, lead, chromium, antimon

Widespread range expansions shape latitudinal variation in insect thermal limits

I thank the authors of previous studies on global variation in insect thermal tolerances who have generously provided open access use of their data sets.Peer reviewedPostprin

Towards an Integrated Framework for Assessing the Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. A novel integrated framework to assess vulnerability and prioritize research and management action aims to improve our ability to respond to this emerging crisis

Regional adaptation defines sensitivity to future ocean acidification

Physiological responses to temperature are known to be a major determinant of species distributions and can dictate the sensitivity of populations to global warming. In contrast, little is known about how other major global change drivers, such as ocean acidification (OA), will shape species distributions in the future. Here, by integrating population genetics with experimental data for growth and mineralization, physiology and metabolomics, we demonstrate that the sensitivity of populations of the gastropod Littorina littorea to future OA is shaped by regional adaptation. Individuals from populations towards the edges of the natural latitudinal range in the Northeast Atlantic exhibit greater shell dissolution and the inability to upregulate their metabolism when exposed to low pH, thus appearing most sensitive to low seawater pH. Our results suggest that future levels of OA could mediate temperature-driven shifts in species distributions, thereby influencing future biogeography and the functioning of marine ecosystems

Thermal Tolerance of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei: Predictions of Climate Change Impact on a Tropical Insect Pest

Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer , Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35°C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20–30°C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32°C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1–2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1°C rise in thermal optimum (Topt.), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (rmax) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2

Adaptation to Aridity in the Malaria Mosquito Anopheles gambiae: Chromosomal Inversion Polymorphism and Body Size Influence Resistance to Desiccation

Chromosomal inversions are thought to confer a selective advantage in alternative habitats by protecting co-adapted alleles from recombination. The frequencies of two inversions (2La and 2Rb) of the afro-tropical malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae change gradually along geographical clines, increasing in frequency with degree of aridity. Such clines can result from gene flow and local selection acting upon alternative karyotypes along the cline, suggesting that these inversions may be associated with tolerance to xeric conditions. Since water loss represents a major challenge in xeric habitats, it can be supposed that genes inside these inversions are involved in water homeostasis. To test this hypothesis, we compared the desiccation resistance of alternative karyotypes from a colonised 2Rb/2La polymorphic population of A. gambiae from Cameroon. The strain included only the molecular form S, one of the genetic units marking incipient speciation in this taxon. Day-old mosquitoes of both sexes were assayed individually for time to death in a dry environment and the karyotype of each was determined post-mortem using molecular diagnostic assays for each inversion. In agreement with expectations based on their eco-geographical distribution, we found that 2La homokaryotypes survived significantly longer (1.3 hours) than the other karyotypes. However, there was weak support for the effect of 2Rb on desiccation resistance. Larger mosquitoes survived longer than smaller ones. Median survival of females was greater than males, but the effect of sex on desiccation resistance was weakly supported, indicating that differential survival was correlated to differences between sexes in average size. We found weak evidence for a heterotic effect of 2La karyotype on size in females. These results support the notion that genes located inside the 2La inversion are involved in water balance, contributing towards local adaptation of A. gambiae to xeric habitats, beyond the adaptive value conferred by a larger body size

Gene expression clines reveal local adaptation and associated trade-offs at a continental scale

Local adaptation, where fitness in one environment comes at a cost in another, should lead to spatial variation in trade-offs between life history traits and may be critical for population persistence. Recent studies have sought genomic signals of local adaptation, but often have been limited to laboratory populations representing two environmentally different locations of a species' distribution. We measured gene expression, as a proxy for fitness, in males of Drosophila subobscura, occupying a 20° latitudinal and 11 °C thermal range. Uniquely, we sampled six populations and studied both common garden and semi-natural responses to identify signals of local adaptation. We found contrasting patterns of investment: transcripts with expression positively correlated to latitude were enriched for metabolic processes, expressed across all tissues whereas negatively correlated transcripts were enriched for reproductive processes, expressed primarily in testes. When using only the end populations, to compare our results to previous studies, we found that locally adaptive patterns were obscured. While phenotypic trade-offs between metabolic and reproductive functions across widespread species are well-known, our results identify underlying genetic and tissue responses at a continental scale that may be responsible for this. This may contribute to understanding population persistence under environmental change

Coping with Temperature at the Warm Edge – Patterns of Thermal Adaptation in the Microbial Eukaryote Paramecium caudatum

Ectothermic organisms are thought to be severely affected by global warming since their physiological performance is directly dependent on temperature. Latitudinal and temporal variations in mean temperatures force ectotherms to adapt to these complex environmental conditions. Studies investigating current patterns of thermal adaptation among populations of different latitudes allow a prediction of the potential impact of prospective increases in environmental temperatures on their fitness.In this study, temperature reaction norms were ascertained among 18 genetically defined, natural clones of the microbial eukaryote Paramecium caudatum. These different clones have been isolated from 12 freshwater habitats along a latitudinal transect in Europe and from 3 tropical habitats (Indonesia). The sensitivity to increasing temperatures was estimated through the analysis of clone specific thermal tolerances and by relating those to current and predicted temperature data of their natural habitats. All investigated European clones seem to be thermal generalists with a broad thermal tolerance and similar optimum temperatures. The weak or missing co-variation of thermal tolerance with latitude does not imply local adaptation to thermal gradients; it rather suggests adaptive phenotypic plasticity among the whole European subpopulation. The tested Indonesian clones appear to be locally adapted to the less variable, tropical temperature regime and show higher tolerance limits, but lower tolerance breadths.Due to the lack of local temperature adaptation within the European subpopulation, P. caudatum genotypes at the most southern edge of their geographic range seem to suffer from the predicted increase in magnitude and frequency of summer heat waves caused by climate change

Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar : understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century