Ensembles of climate change models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Climate change affects technical Systems, Structures and Infrastructures (SSIs), changing the environmental context for which SSI were originally designed. In order to prevent any risk growth beyond acceptable levels, the climate change effects must be accounted for into risk assessment models. Climate models can provide future climate data, such as air temperature and pressure. However, the reliability of climate models is a major concern due to the uncertainty in the temperature and pressure future projections. In this work, we consider five climate change models (individually unable to accurately provide historical recorded temperatures and, thus, also future projections), and ensemble their projections for integration in a probabilistic safety assessment, conditional on climate projections. As case study, we consider the Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) of two AP1000 Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Results provided by the different ensembles are compared. Finally, a risk-based classification approach is performed to identify critical future temperatures, which may lead to PCCS risks beyond acceptable levels

Towards Resilience to Nuclear Accidents:Financing Nuclear Liabilities via Catastrophe Risk Bonds

In light of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, recent discussion has focused on finding the best nuclear storage options, maximizing the oversight power of global institutions, and strengthening safety measures. In addition to these, the development of dependable liability coverage that can be tapped in an emergency is also needed and should be considered thoughtfully. To succeed, financing is essential using special-purpose instruments from the global bond market, which is as big as US$175 trillion. Thus, in this paper, for the first time, a two-coverage-type trigger nuclear catastrophe (N-CAT) risk bond for potentially supplementing the covering of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) beyond the coverage per the Price Anderson Act as amended, and potentially other plants are proposed and designed worldwide. The N-CAT peril is categorized by three risk layers: incident, accident, and major accident. The pricing formula is derived by using a semi-Markovian dependence structure in continuous time. A numerical application illustrates the main findings of the paper.</jats:p

Security risk assessment and protection in the chemical and process industry

This article describes a security risk assessment and protection methodology that was developed for use in the chemical- and process industry in Belgium. The approach of the method follows a risk-based approach that follows desing principles for chemical safety. That approach is beneficial for workers in the chemical industry because they recognize the steps in this model from familiar safety models .The model combines the rings-of-protection approach with generic security practices including: management and procedures, security technology (e.g. CCTV, fences, and access control), and human interactions (pro-active as well as re-active). The method is illustrated in a case-study where a practical protection plan was developed for an existing chemical company. This chapter demonstrates that the method is useful for similar chemical- and process industrial activities far beyond the Belgian borders, as well as for cross-industrial security protection. This chapter offers an insight into how the chemical sector protects itself on the one hand, and an insight into how security risk management can be practiced on the other hand

Consideration of urban green space in impact assessments for health

This paper explores how health aspects connected with the planning of urban green space are currently supported through two types of impact assessments: health impact assessment (HIA) and environmental assessment, including strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of policies, plans and programmes and environmental impact assessment (EIA) of projects. Seven HIAs and five EIAs/SEAs from the UK, the US, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany are reviewed, using an analytical framework designed on the basis of a literature review. An important finding is that whilst all HIAs follow a problem-/objectives-driven approach, designing guidelines for potential future projects, all EIAs/SEAs use an impact-driven approach, focusing on the impacts of planned and concrete action. HIAs therefore approach policy, plan, programme and project-making exercises from the outside, making suggestions to those working on them to consider certain aspects in the future, rather than working with them on improving things within a decision making process, as is usually is usually the case with EIAs/SEAs

Moving radiation protection on from the limitations of empirical concentration ratios

Radionuclide activity concentrations in food crops and wildlife are most often predicted using empirical concentration ratios (CRs). The CR approach is simple to apply and some data exist with which to parameterise models. However, the parameter is highly variable leading to considerable uncertainty in predictions. Furthermore, for both crops and wildlife we have no, or few, data for many radionuclides and realistically, we are never going to have specific data for every radionuclide - wildlife/crop combination. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using residual maximum likelihood (REML) fitting of a linear mixed effects model; the model output is an estimate of the rank-order of relative values. This methodology gives a less uncertain approach than the CR approach, as it takes into account the effect of site; it also gives a scientifically based extrapolation approach. We demonstrate the approach using the examples of Cs for plants and Pb for terrestrial wildlife. This is the first published application of the REML approach to terrestrial wildlife (previous applications being limited to the consideration of plants). The model presented gives reasonable predictions for a blind test dataset

Assessing the impact of a food supplement on the nutritional status and body composition of HIV-infected Zambian women on ARVs

Background Zambia is a sub-Saharan country with one of the highest prevalence rates of HIV, currently estimated at 14%. Poor nutritional status due to both protein-energy and micronutrient malnutrition has worsened this situation. In an attempt to address this combined problem, the government has instigated a number of strategies, including the provision of antiretroviral (ARV) treatment coupled with the promotion of good nutrition. High-energy protein supplement (HEPS) is particularly promoted; however, the impact of this food supplement on the nutritional status of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) beyond weight gain has not been assessed. Techniques for the assessment of nutritional status utilising objective measures of body composition are not commonly available in Zambia. The aim of this study is therefore to assess the impact of a food supplement on nutritional status using a comprehensive anthropometric protocol including measures of skinfold thickness and circumferences, plus the criterion deuterium dilution technique to assess total body water (TBW) and derive fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM). Methods/Design This community-based controlled and longitudinal study aims to recruit 200 HIV-infected females commencing ARV treatment at two clinics in Lusaka, Zambia. Data will be collected at four time points: baseline, 4-month, 8-month and 12-month follow-up visits. Outcome measures to be assessed include body height and weight, body mass index (BMI), body composition, CD4, viral load and micronutrient status. Discussion This protocol describes a study that will provide a longitudinal assessment of the impact of a food supplement on the nutritional status of HIV-infected females initiating ARVs using a range of anthropometric and body composition assessment techniques

Assessment of natural radioactivity in various commercial tiles used for building purposes in Nigeria

In this study, we evaluated the activity concentration of natural radionuclides (226Ra, 232Th and 40K) for fifteen (15) different brands of tile samples used for building purposes in Nigeria. The tile samples were analyzed using High purity Germanium gamma detector. The mean activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th, and 40K were observed to be 61.1 �5.5 Bq/kg, 70.2 � 6.08 Bq/kg and 514.7 � 59.8 Bq/kg respectively. Various hazard indices such as absorbed dose rate, external and internal hazard index, annual effective dose rate, Gamma activity Index (Ig) and Alpha Index (Ia) were calculated. The obtained results showed that the mean radium equivalent activity (Raeq), the absorbed dose rate (D), external and internal hazard index, the annual effective dose (AEDR) equivalent, Gamma activity Index (Ig) and Alpha Index (Ia) were: 204.42 Bq/kg, 177.61 nGyh1 , 0.55, 0.77, 0.96 mSvyr1 , 0.74 and 0.32 respectively. The average value of radium equivalent obtained in this study is less than that of the recommended value of 370 Bq/kg but the average values of the other radiological hazards for some samples are found to be slightly above international recommended values except Hex, Hin and AEDE which are within the international reference value of unity. The measured concentrations of these radioactive materials were correlated with other previous result obtained from similar tile materials used in other countries and found to be in good agreement with the international standard, however, the tiles are recommended for decoration purposes in Nigeria

Radiocesium concentrations in wild mushrooms collected in Kawauchi Village after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

It is well known from the experience after the 1986 accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant that radiocesium tends to concentrate in wild mushrooms. In this study, we collected wild mushrooms from the Kawauchi Village of Fukushima Prefecture, located within 30 km of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, and evaluated their radiocesium concentrations to estimate the risk of internal radiation exposure in local residents.We found that radioactive cesium exceeding 100 Bq/kg was detected in 125 of 154 mushrooms (81.2%).We calculated committed effective doses based on 6,278 g per year (age > 20 years, 17.2 g/day), the average intake of Japanese citizens, ranging from doses of 0.11-1.60 mSv, respectively. Although committed effective doses are limited even if residents eat contaminated foods several times, we believe that comprehensive risk-communication based on the results of the radiocesium measurements of food, water, and soil is necessary for the recovery of Fukushima after this nuclear disaster