Where creativity comes from: the social spaces of embodied minds

This paper explores creative design, social interaction and perception. It proposes that creativity at a social level is not a result of many individuals trying to be creative at a personal level, but occurs naturally in the social interaction between comparatively simple minds embodied in a complex world. Particle swarm algorithms can model group interaction in shared spaces, but design space is not necessarily one pre-defined space of set parameters on which everyone can agree, as individual minds are very different. A computational model is proposed that allows a similar swarm to occur between spaces of different description and even dimensionality. This paper explores creative design, social interaction and perception. It proposes that creativity at a social level is not a result of many individuals trying to be creative at a personal level, but occurs naturally in the social interaction between comparatively simple minds embodied in a complex world. Particle swarm algorithms can model group interaction in shared spaces, but design space is not necessarily one pre-defined space of set parameters on which everyone can agree, as individual minds are very different. A computational model is proposed that allows a similar swarm to occur between spaces of different description and even dimensionality

Exact and non-exact procedures for solving the response time variability problem (RTVP)

Premi extraordinari doctorat curs 2009-2010, àmbit d’Enginyeria IndustrialCuando se ha de compartir un recurso entre demandas (de productos, clientes, tareas, etc.) competitivas que requieren una atención regular, es importante programar el derecho al acceso del recurso de alguna forma justa de manera que cada producto, cliente o tarea reciba un acceso al recurso proporcional a su demanda relativa al total de las demandas competitivas. Este tipo de problemas de secuenciación pueden ser generalizados bajo el siguiente esquema. Dados n símbolos, cada uno con demanda di (i = 1,...,n), se ha de generar una secuencia justa o regular donde cada símbolo aparezca di veces. No existe una definición universal de justicia, ya que puede haber varias métricas razonables para medirla según el problema específico considerado. En el Problema de Variabilidad en el Tiempo de Respuesta, o Response Time Variability Problem (RTVP) en inglés, la injusticia o irregularidad de una secuencia es medida como la suma, para todos los símbolos, de sus variabilidades en las distancias en que las copias de cada símbolo son secuenciados. Así, el objetivo del RTVP es encontrar la secuencia que minimice la variabilidad total. En otras palabras, el objetivo del RTVP es minimizar la variabilidad de los instantes en que los productos, clientes o trabajos reciben el recurso necesario. Este problema aparece en una amplia variedad de situaciones de la vida real; entre otras, secuenciación en líneas de modelo-mixto bajo just-in-time (JIT), en asignación de recursos en sistemas computacionales multi-hilo como sistemas operativos, servidores de red y aplicaciones mutimedia, en el mantenimiento periódico de maquinaria, en la recolección de basura, en la programación de comerciales en televisión y en el diseño de rutas para agentes comerciales con múltiples visitas a un mismo cliente. En algunos de estos problemas la regularidad no es una propiedad deseable por sí misma, si no que ayuda a minimizar costes. De hecho, cuando los costes son proporcionales al cuadrado de las distancias, el problema de minimizar costes y el RTVP son equivalentes. El RTVP es muy difícil de resolver (se ha demostrado que es NP-hard). El tamaño de las instancias del RTVP que pueden ser resueltas óptimamente con el mejor método exacto existente en la literatura tiene un límite práctico de 40 unidades. Por otro lado, los métodos no exactos propuestos en la literatura para resolver instancias mayores consisten en heurísticos simples que obtienen soluciones rápidamente, pero cuya calidad puede ser mejorada. Por tanto, los métodos de resolución existentes en la literatura son insuficientes. El principal objetivo de esta tesis es mejorar la resolución del RTVP. Este objetivo se divide en los dos siguientes subobjetivos : 1) aumentar el tamaño de las instancias del RTVP que puedan ser resueltas de forma óptima en un tiempo de computación práctico, y 2) obtener de forma eficiente soluciones lo más cercanas a las óptimas para instancias mayores. Además, la tesis tiene los dos siguientes objetivos secundarios: a) investigar el uso de metaheurísticos bajo el esquema de los hiper-heurísticos, y b) diseñar un procedimiento sistemático y automático para fijar los valores adecuados a los parámetros de los algoritmos. Se han desarrollado diversos métodos para alcanzar los objetivos anteriormente descritos. Para la resolución del RTVP se ha diseñado un método exacto basado en la técnica branch and bound y el tamaño de las instancias que pueden resolverse en un tiempo práctico se ha incrementado a 55 unidades. Para instancias mayores, se han diseñado métodos heurísticos, metaheurísticos e hiper-heurísticos, los cuales pueden obtener soluciones óptimas o casi óptimas rápidamente. Además, se ha propuesto un procedimiento sistemático y automático para tunear parámetros que aprovecha las ventajas de dos procedimientos existentes (el algoritmo Nelder & Mead y CALIBRA).When a resource must be shared between competing demands (of products, clients, jobs, etc.) that require regular attention, it is important to schedule the access right to the resource in some fair manner so that each product, client or job receives a share of the resource that is proportional to its demand relative to the total of the competing demands. These types of sequencing problems can be generalized under the following scheme. Given n symbols, each one with demand di (i = 1,...,n), a fair or regular sequence must be built in which each symbol appears di times. There is not a universal definition of fairness, as several reasonable metrics to measure it can be defined according to the specific considered problem. In the Response Time Variability Problem (RTVP), the unfairness or the irregularity of a sequence is measured by the sum, for all symbols, of their variabilities in the positions at which the copies of each symbol are sequenced. Thus, the objective of the RTVP is to find the sequence that minimises the total variability. In other words, the RTVP objective is to minimise the variability in the instants at which products, clients or jobs receive the necessary resource. This problem appears in a broad range of real-world areas. Applications include sequencing of mixed-model assembly lines under just-in-time (JIT), resource allocation in computer multi-threaded systems such as operating systems, network servers and media-based applications, periodic machine maintenance, waste collection, scheduling commercial videotapes for television and designing of salespeople's routes with multiple visits, among others. In some of these problems the regularity is not a property desirable by itself, but it helps to minimise costs. In fact, when the costs are proportional to the square of the distances, the problem of minimising costs and the RTVP are equivalent. The RTVP is very hard to be solved (it has been demonstrated that it is NP-hard). The size of the RTVP instances that can be solved optimally with the best exact method existing in the literature has a practical limit of 40 units. On the other hand, the non-exact methods proposed in the literature to solve larger instances are simple heuristics that obtains solutions quickly, but the quality of the obtained solutions can be improved. Thus, the solution methods existing in the literature are not enough to solve the RTVP. The main objective of this thesis is to improve the resolution of the RTVP. This objective is split in the two following sub-objectives: 1) to increase the size of the RTVP instances that can be solved optimally in a practical computing time; and 2) to obtain efficiently near-optimal solutions for larger instances. Moreover, the thesis has the following two secondary objectives: a) to research the use of metaheuristics under the scheme of hyper-heuristics, and b) to design a systematic, hands-off procedure to set the suitable values of the algorithm parameters. To achieve the aforementioned objectives, several procedures have been developed. To solve the RTVP an exact procedure based on the branch and bound technique has been designed and the size of the instances that can be solved in a practical time has been increased to 55 units. For larger instances, heuristic, heuristic, metaheuristic and hyper-heuristic procedures have been designed, which can obtain optimal or near-optimal solutions quickly. Moreover, a systematic, hands-off fine-tuning method that takes advantage of the two existing ones (Nelder & Mead algorithm and CALIBRA) has been proposed.Award-winningPostprint (published version

Nature-inspired algorithms for solving some hard numerical problems

Optimisation is a branch of mathematics that was developed to find the optimal solutions, among all the possible ones, for a given problem. Applications of optimisation techniques are currently employed in engineering, computing, and industrial problems. Therefore, optimisation is a very active research area, leading to the publication of a large number of methods to solve specific problems to its optimality. This dissertation focuses on the adaptation of two nature inspired algorithms that, based on optimisation techniques, are able to compute approximations for zeros of polynomials and roots of non-linear equations and systems of non-linear equations. Although many iterative methods for finding all the roots of a given function already exist, they usually require: (a) repeated deflations, that can lead to very inaccurate results due to the problem of accumulating rounding errors, (b) good initial approximations to the roots for the algorithm converge, or (c) the computation of first or second order derivatives, which besides being computationally intensive, it is not always possible. The drawbacks previously mentioned served as motivation for the use of Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for root-finding, since they are known, respectively, for their ability to explore high-dimensional spaces (not requiring good initial approximations) and for their capability to model complex problems. Besides that, both methods do not need repeated deflations, nor derivative information. The algorithms were described throughout this document and tested using a test suite of hard numerical problems in science and engineering. Results, in turn, were compared with several results available on the literature and with the well-known Durand–Kerner method, depicting that both algorithms are effective to solve the numerical problems considered.A Optimização é um ramo da matemática desenvolvido para encontrar as soluções óptimas, de entre todas as possíveis, para um determinado problema. Actualmente, são várias as técnicas de optimização aplicadas a problemas de engenharia, de informática e da indústria. Dada a grande panóplia de aplicações, existem inúmeros trabalhos publicados que propõem métodos para resolver, de forma óptima, problemas específicos. Esta dissertação foca-se na adaptação de dois algoritmos inspirados na natureza que, tendo como base técnicas de optimização, são capazes de calcular aproximações para zeros de polinómios e raízes de equações não lineares e sistemas de equações não lineares. Embora já existam muitos métodos iterativos para encontrar todas as raízes ou zeros de uma função, eles usualmente exigem: (a) deflações repetidas, que podem levar a resultados muito inexactos, devido ao problema da acumulação de erros de arredondamento a cada iteração; (b) boas aproximações iniciais para as raízes para o algoritmo convergir, ou (c) o cálculo de derivadas de primeira ou de segunda ordem que, além de ser computacionalmente intensivo, para muitas funções é impossível de se calcular. Estas desvantagens motivaram o uso da Optimização por Enxame de Partículas (PSO) e de Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNAs) para o cálculo de raízes. Estas técnicas são conhecidas, respectivamente, pela sua capacidade de explorar espaços de dimensão superior (não exigindo boas aproximações iniciais) e pela sua capacidade de modelar problemas complexos. Além disto, tais técnicas não necessitam de deflações repetidas, nem do cálculo de derivadas. Ao longo deste documento, os algoritmos são descritos e testados, usando um conjunto de problemas numéricos com aplicações nas ciências e na engenharia. Os resultados foram comparados com outros disponíveis na literatura e com o método de Durand–Kerner, e sugerem que ambos os algoritmos são capazes de resolver os problemas numéricos considerados

A Nature inspired guidance system for unmanned autonomous vehicles employed in a search role.

Since the very earliest days of the human race, people have been studying animal behaviours. In those early times, being able to predict animal behaviour gave hunters the advantages required for success. Then, as societies began to develop this gave way, to an extent, to agriculture and early studies, much of it trial and error, enabled farmers to successfully breed and raise livestock to feed an ever growing population. Following the advent of scientific endeavour, more rigorous academic research has taken human understanding of the natural world to much greater depth. In recent years, some of this understanding has been applied to the field of computing, creating the more specialised field of natural computing. In this arena, a considerable amount of research has been undertaken to exploit the analogy between, say, searching a given problem space for an optimal solution and the natural process of foraging for food. Such analogies have led to useful solutions in areas such as numerical optimisation and communication network management, prominent examples being ant colony systems and particle swarm optimisation; however, these solutions often rely on well-defined fitness landscapes that may not always be available. One practical application of natural computing may be to create behaviours for the control of autonomous vehicles that would utilise the findings of ethological research, identifying the natural world behaviours that have evolved over millennia to surmount many of the problems that autonomous vehicles find difficult; for example, long range underwater navigation or obstacle avoidance in fast moving environments. This thesis provides an exploratory investigation into the use of natural search strategies for improving the performance of autonomous vehicles operating in a search role. It begins with a survey of related work, including recent developments in autonomous vehicles and a ground breaking study of behaviours observed within the natural world that highlights general cooperative group behaviours, search strategies and communication methods that might be useful within a wider computing context beyond optimisation, where the information may be sparse but new paradigms could be developed that capitalise on research into biological systems that have developed over millennia within the natural world. Following this, using a 2-dimensional model, novel research is reported that explores whether autonomous vehicle search can be enhanced by applying natural search behaviours for a variety of search targets. Having identified useful search behaviours for detecting targets, it then considers scenarios where detection is lost and whether natural strategies for re-detection can improve overall systemic performance in search applications. Analysis of empirical results indicate that search strategies exploiting behaviours found in nature can improve performance over random search and commonly applied systematic searches, such as grids and spirals, across a variety of relative target speeds, from static targets to twice the speed of the searching vehicles, and against various target movement types such as deterministic movement, random walks and other nature inspired movement. It was found that strategies were most successful under similar target-vehicle relationships as were identified in nature. Experiments with target occlusion also reveal that natural reacquisition strategies could improve the probability oftarget redetection

The development and application of metaheuristics for problems in graph theory: A computational study

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.It is known that graph theoretic models have extensive application to real-life discrete optimization problems. Many of these models are NP-hard and, as a result, exact methods may be impractical for large scale problem instances. Consequently, there is a great interest in developing e±cient approximate methods that yield near-optimal solutions in acceptable computational times. A class of such methods, known as metaheuristics, have been proposed with success. This thesis considers some recently proposed NP-hard combinatorial optimization problems formulated on graphs. In particular, the min- imum labelling spanning tree problem, the minimum labelling Steiner tree problem, and the minimum quartet tree cost problem, are inves- tigated. Several metaheuristics are proposed for each problem, from classical approximation algorithms to novel approaches. A compre- hensive computational investigation in which the proposed methods are compared with other algorithms recommended in the literature is reported. The results show that the proposed metaheuristics outper- form the algorithms recommended in the literature, obtaining optimal or near-optimal solutions in short computational running times. In addition, a thorough analysis of the implementation of these methods provide insights for the implementation of metaheuristic strategies for other graph theoretic problems

Optimum Allocation of Inspection Stations in Multistage Manufacturing Processes by Using Max-Min Ant System

In multistage manufacturing processes it is common to locate inspection stations after some or all of the processing workstations. The purpose of the inspection is to reduce the total manufacturing cost, resulted from unidentified defective items being processed unnecessarily through subsequent manufacturing operations. This total cost is the sum of the costs of production, inspection and failures (during production and after shipment). Introducing inspection stations into a serial multistage manufacturing process, although constituting an additional cost, is expected to be a profitable course of action. Specifically, at some positions the associated inspection costs will be recovered from the benefits realised through the detection of defective items, before wasting additional cost by continuing to process them. In this research, a novel general cost modelling for allocating a limited number of inspection stations in serial multistage manufacturing processes is formulated. In allocation of inspection station (AOIS) problem, as the number of workstations increases, the number of inspection station allocation possibilities increases exponentially. To identify the appropriate approach for the AOIS problem, different optimisation methods are investigated. The MAX-MIN Ant System (MMAS) algorithm is proposed as a novel approach to explore AOIS in serial multistage manufacturing processes. MMAS is an ant colony optimisation algorithm that was designed originally to begin an explorative search phase and, subsequently, to make a slow transition to the intensive exploitation of the best solutions found during the search, by allowing only one ant to update the pheromone trails. Two novel heuristics information for the MMAS algorithm are created. The heuristic information for the MMAS algorithm is exploited as a novel means to guide ants to build reasonably good solutions from the very beginning of the search. To improve the performance of the MMAS algorithm, six local search methods which are well-known and suitable for the AOIS problem are used. Selecting relevant parameter values for the MMAS algorithm can have a great impact on the algorithm’s performance. As a result, a method for tuning the most influential parameter values for the MMAS algorithm is developed. The contribution of this research is, for the first time, a methodology using MMAS to solve the AOIS problem in serial multistage manufacturing processes has been developed. The methodology takes into account the constraints on inspection resources, in terms of a limited number of inspection stations. As a result, the total manufacturing cost of a product can be reduced, while maintaining the quality of the product. Four numerical experiments are conducted to assess the MMAS algorithm for the AOIS problem. The performance of the MMAS algorithm is compared with a number of other methods this includes the complete enumeration method (CEM), rule of thumb, a pure random search algorithm, particle swarm optimisation, simulated annealing and genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that the effectiveness of the MMAS algorithm lies in its considerably shorter execution time and robustness. Further, in certain conditions results obtained by the MMAS algorithm are identical to the CEM. In addition, the results show that applying local search to the MMAS algorithm has significantly improved the performance of the algorithm. Also the results demonstrate that it is essential to use heuristic information with the MMAS algorithm for the AOIS problem, in order to obtain a high quality solution. It was found that the main parameters of MMAS include the pheromone trail intensity, heuristic information and evaporation of pheromone are less sensitive within the specified range as the number of workstations is significantly increased

Modelling discrepancy in Bayesian calibration of reservoir models

Simulation models of physical systems such as oil field reservoirs are subject to numerous uncertainties such as observation errors and inaccurate initial and boundary conditions. However, after accounting for these uncertainties, it is usually observed that the mismatch between the simulator output and the observations remains and the model is still inadequate. This incapability of computer models to reproduce the real-life processes is referred to as model inadequacy. This thesis presents a comprehensive framework for modelling discrepancy in the Bayesian calibration and probabilistic forecasting of reservoir models. The framework efficiently implements data-driven approaches to handle uncertainty caused by ignoring the modelling discrepancy in reservoir predictions using two major hierarchical strategies, parametric and non-parametric hierarchical models. The central focus of this thesis is on an appropriate way of modelling discrepancy and the importance of the model selection in controlling overfitting rather than different solutions to different noise models. The thesis employs a model selection code to obtain the best candidate solutions to the form of non-parametric error models. This enables us to, first, interpolate the error in history period and, second, propagate it towards unseen data (i.e. error generalisation). The error models constructed by inferring parameters of selected models can predict the response variable (e.g. oil rate) at any point in input space (e.g. time) with corresponding generalisation uncertainty. In the real field applications, the error models reliably track down the uncertainty regardless of the type of the sampling method and achieve a better model prediction score compared to the models that ignore discrepancy. All the case studies confirm the enhancement of field variables prediction when the discrepancy is modelled. As for the model parameters, hierarchical error models render less global bias concerning the reference case. However, in the considered case studies, the evidence for better prediction of each of the model parameters by error modelling is inconclusive

Exact and non-exact procedures for solving the response time variability problem (RTVP)

Cuando se ha de compartir un recurso entre demandas (de productos, clientes, tareas, etc.) competitivas que requieren una atención regular, es importante programar el derecho al acceso del recurso de alguna forma justa de manera que cada producto, cliente o tarea reciba un acceso al recurso proporcional a su demanda relativa al total de las demandas competitivas. Este tipo de problemas de secuenciación pueden ser generalizados bajo el siguiente esquema. Dados n símbolos, cada uno con demanda di (i = 1,...,n), se ha de generar una secuencia justa o regular donde cada símbolo aparezca di veces. No existe una definición universal de justicia, ya que puede haber varias métricas razonables para medirla según el problema específico considerado. En el Problema de Variabilidad en el Tiempo de Respuesta, o Response Time Variability Problem (RTVP) en inglés, la injusticia o irregularidad de una secuencia es medida como la suma, para todos los símbolos, de sus variabilidades en las distancias en que las copias de cada símbolo son secuenciados. Así, el objetivo del RTVP es encontrar la secuencia que minimice la variabilidad total. En otras palabras, el objetivo del RTVP es minimizar la variabilidad de los instantes en que los productos, clientes o trabajos reciben el recurso necesario. Este problema aparece en una amplia variedad de situaciones de la vida real; entre otras, secuenciación en líneas de modelo-mixto bajo just-in-time (JIT), en asignación de recursos en sistemas computacionales multi-hilo como sistemas operativos, servidores de red y aplicaciones mutimedia, en el mantenimiento periódico de maquinaria, en la recolección de basura, en la programación de comerciales en televisión y en el diseño de rutas para agentes comerciales con múltiples visitas a un mismo cliente. En algunos de estos problemas la regularidad no es una propiedad deseable por sí misma, si no que ayuda a minimizar costes. De hecho, cuando los costes son proporcionales al cuadrado de las distancias, el problema de minimizar costes y el RTVP son equivalentes. El RTVP es muy difícil de resolver (se ha demostrado que es NP-hard). El tamaño de las instancias del RTVP que pueden ser resueltas óptimamente con el mejor método exacto existente en la literatura tiene un límite práctico de 40 unidades. Por otro lado, los métodos no exactos propuestos en la literatura para resolver instancias mayores consisten en heurísticos simples que obtienen soluciones rápidamente, pero cuya calidad puede ser mejorada. Por tanto, los métodos de resolución existentes en la literatura son insuficientes. El principal objetivo de esta tesis es mejorar la resolución del RTVP. Este objetivo se divide en los dos siguientes subobjetivos : 1) aumentar el tamaño de las instancias del RTVP que puedan ser resueltas de forma óptima en un tiempo de computación práctico, y 2) obtener de forma eficiente soluciones lo más cercanas a las óptimas para instancias mayores. Además, la tesis tiene los dos siguientes objetivos secundarios: a) investigar el uso de metaheurísticos bajo el esquema de los hiper-heurísticos, y b) diseñar un procedimiento sistemático y automático para fijar los valores adecuados a los parámetros de los algoritmos. Se han desarrollado diversos métodos para alcanzar los objetivos anteriormente descritos. Para la resolución del RTVP se ha diseñado un método exacto basado en la técnica branch and bound y el tamaño de las instancias que pueden resolverse en un tiempo práctico se ha incrementado a 55 unidades. Para instancias mayores, se han diseñado métodos heurísticos, metaheurísticos e hiper-heurísticos, los cuales pueden obtener soluciones óptimas o casi óptimas rápidamente. Además, se ha propuesto un procedimiento sistemático y automático para tunear parámetros que aprovecha las ventajas de dos procedimientos existentes (el algoritmo Nelder & Mead y CALIBRA).When a resource must be shared between competing demands (of products, clients, jobs, etc.) that require regular attention, it is important to schedule the access right to the resource in some fair manner so that each product, client or job receives a share of the resource that is proportional to its demand relative to the total of the competing demands. These types of sequencing problems can be generalized under the following scheme. Given n symbols, each one with demand di (i = 1,...,n), a fair or regular sequence must be built in which each symbol appears di times. There is not a universal definition of fairness, as several reasonable metrics to measure it can be defined according to the specific considered problem. In the Response Time Variability Problem (RTVP), the unfairness or the irregularity of a sequence is measured by the sum, for all symbols, of their variabilities in the positions at which the copies of each symbol are sequenced. Thus, the objective of the RTVP is to find the sequence that minimises the total variability. In other words, the RTVP objective is to minimise the variability in the instants at which products, clients or jobs receive the necessary resource. This problem appears in a broad range of real-world areas. Applications include sequencing of mixed-model assembly lines under just-in-time (JIT), resource allocation in computer multi-threaded systems such as operating systems, network servers and media-based applications, periodic machine maintenance, waste collection, scheduling commercial videotapes for television and designing of salespeople's routes with multiple visits, among others. In some of these problems the regularity is not a property desirable by itself, but it helps to minimise costs. In fact, when the costs are proportional to the square of the distances, the problem of minimising costs and the RTVP are equivalent. The RTVP is very hard to be solved (it has been demonstrated that it is NP-hard). The size of the RTVP instances that can be solved optimally with the best exact method existing in the literature has a practical limit of 40 units. On the other hand, the non-exact methods proposed in the literature to solve larger instances are simple heuristics that obtains solutions quickly, but the quality of the obtained solutions can be improved. Thus, the solution methods existing in the literature are not enough to solve the RTVP. The main objective of this thesis is to improve the resolution of the RTVP. This objective is split in the two following sub-objectives: 1) to increase the size of the RTVP instances that can be solved optimally in a practical computing time; and 2) to obtain efficiently near-optimal solutions for larger instances. Moreover, the thesis has the following two secondary objectives: a) to research the use of metaheuristics under the scheme of hyper-heuristics, and b) to design a systematic, hands-off procedure to set the suitable values of the algorithm parameters. To achieve the aforementioned objectives, several procedures have been developed. To solve the RTVP an exact procedure based on the branch and bound technique has been designed and the size of the instances that can be solved in a practical time has been increased to 55 units. For larger instances, heuristic, heuristic, metaheuristic and hyper-heuristic procedures have been designed, which can obtain optimal or near-optimal solutions quickly. Moreover, a systematic, hands-off fine-tuning method that takes advantage of the two existing ones (Nelder & Mead algorithm and CALIBRA) has been proposed

Novel sampling techniques for reservoir history matching optimisation and uncertainty quantification in flow prediction

Modern reservoir management has an increasing focus on accurately predicting the likely range of field recoveries. A variety of assisted history matching techniques has been developed across the research community concerned with this topic. These techniques are based on obtaining multiple models that closely reproduce the historical flow behaviour of a reservoir. The set of resulted history matched models is then used to quantify uncertainty in predicting the future performance of the reservoir and providing economic evaluations for different field development strategies. The key step in this workflow is to employ algorithms that sample the parameter space in an efficient but appropriate manner. The algorithm choice has an impact on how fast a model is obtained and how well the model fits the production data. The sampling techniques that have been developed to date include, among others, gradient based methods, evolutionary algorithms, and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). This thesis has investigated and further developed the following sampling and inference techniques: Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO), Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and Population Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The inspected techniques have the capability of navigating the parameter space and producing history matched models that can be used to quantify the uncertainty in the forecasts in a faster and more reliable way. The analysis of these techniques, compared with Neighbourhood Algorithm (NA), has shown how the different techniques affect the predicted recovery from petroleum systems and the benefits of the developed methods over the NA. The history matching problem is multi-objective in nature, with the production data possibly consisting of multiple types, coming from different wells, and collected at different times. Multiple objectives can be constructed from these data and explicitly be optimised in the multi-objective scheme. The thesis has extended the PSO to handle multi-objective history matching problems in which a number of possible conflicting objectives must be satisfied simultaneously. The benefits and efficiency of innovative multi-objective particle swarm scheme (MOPSO) are demonstrated for synthetic reservoirs. It is demonstrated that the MOPSO procedure can provide a substantial improvement in finding a diverse set of good fitting models with a fewer number of very costly forward simulations runs than the standard single objective case, depending on how the objectives are constructed. The thesis has also shown how to tackle a large number of unknown parameters through the coupling of high performance global optimisation algorithms, such as PSO, with model reduction techniques such as kernel principal component analysis (PCA), for parameterising spatially correlated random fields. The results of the PSO-PCA coupling applied to a recent SPE benchmark history matching problem have demonstrated that the approach is indeed applicable for practical problems. A comparison of PSO with the EnKF data assimilation method has been carried out and has concluded that both methods have obtained comparable results on the example case. This point reinforces the need for using a range of assisted history matching algorithms for more confidence in predictions

A nature inspired guidance system for unmanned autonomous vehicles employed in a search role

Since the very earliest days of the human race, people have been studying animal behaviours. In those early times, being able to predict animal behaviour gave hunters the advantages required for success. Then, as societies began to develop this gave way, to an extent, to agriculture and early studies, much of it trial and error, enabled farmers to successfully breed and raise livestock to feed an ever growing population. Following the advent of scientific endeavour, more rigorous academic research has taken human understanding of the natural world to much greater depth. In recent years, some of this understanding has been applied to the field of computing, creating the more specialised field of natural computing. In this arena, a considerable amount of research has been undertaken to exploit the analogy between, say, searching a given problem space for an optimal solution and the natural process of foraging for food. Such analogies have led to useful solutions in areas such as numerical optimisation and communication network management, prominent examples being ant colony systems and particle swarm optimisation; however, these solutions often rely on well-defined fitness landscapes that may not always be available. One practical application of natural computing may be to create behaviours for the control of autonomous vehicles that would utilise the findings of ethological research, identifying the natural world behaviours that have evolved over millennia to surmount many of the problems that autonomous vehicles find difficult; for example, long range underwater navigation or obstacle avoidance in fast moving environments. This thesis provides an exploratory investigation into the use of natural search strategies for improving the performance of autonomous vehicles operating in a search role. It begins with a survey of related work, including recent developments in autonomous vehicles and a ground breaking study of behaviours observed within the natural world that highlights general cooperative group behaviours, search strategies and communication methods that might be useful within a wider computing context beyond optimisation, where the information may be sparse but new paradigms could be developed that capitalise on research into biological systems that have developed over millennia within the natural world. Following this, using a 2-dimensional model, novel research is reported that explores whether autonomous vehicle search can be enhanced by applying natural search behaviours for a variety of search targets. Having identified useful search behaviours for detecting targets, it then considers scenarios where detection is lost and whether natural strategies for re-detection can improve overall systemic performance in search applications. Analysis of empirical results indicate that search strategies exploiting behaviours found in nature can improve performance over random search and commonly applied systematic searches, such as grids and spirals, across a variety of relative target speeds, from static targets to twice the speed of the searching vehicles, and against various target movement types such as deterministic movement, random walks and other nature inspired movement. It was found that strategies were most successful under similar target-vehicle relationships as were identified in nature. Experiments with target occlusion also reveal that natural reacquisition strategies could improve the probability oftarget redetection.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo