Prescriptive Control of Business Processes - New Potentials Through Predictive Analytics of Big Data in the Process Manufacturing Industry

This paper proposes a concept for a prescriptive control of business processes by using event-based process predictions. In this regard, it explores new potentials through the application of predictive analytics to big data while focusing on production planning and control in the context of the process manufacturing industry. This type of industry is an adequate application domain for the conceived concept, since it features several characteristics that are opposed to conventional industries such as assembling ones. These specifics include divergent and cyclic material flows, high diversity in end products’ qualities, as well as non-linear production processes that are not fully controllable. Based on a case study of a German steel producing company – a typical example of the process industry – the work at hand outlines which data becomes available when using state-of-the-art sensor technology and thus providing the required basis to realize the proposed concept. However, a consideration of the data size reveals that dedicated methods of big data analytics are required to tap the full potential of this data. Consequently, the paper derives seven requirements that need to be addressed for a successful implementation of the concept. Additionally, the paper proposes a generic architecture of prescriptive enterprise systems. This architecture comprises five building blocks of a system that is capable to detect complex event patterns within a multi-sensor environment, to correlate them with historical data and to calculate predictions that are finally used to recommend the best course of action during process execution in order to minimize or maximize certain key performance indicators

Operations Management

Global competition has caused fundamental changes in the competitive environment of the manufacturing and service industries. Firms should develop strategic objectives that, upon achievement, result in a competitive advantage in the market place. The forces of globalization on one hand and rapidly growing marketing opportunities overseas, especially in emerging economies on the other, have led to the expansion of operations on a global scale. The book aims to cover the main topics characterizing operations management including both strategic issues and practical applications. A global environmental business including both manufacturing and services is analyzed. The book contains original research and application chapters from different perspectives. It is enriched through the analyses of case studies

A Framework for Industry 4.0

The potential of the Industry 4.0 will allow the national industry to develop all kinds of procedures, especially in terms of competitive differentiation. The prospects and motivations behind Industry 4.0 are related to the management that is essentially geared towards industrial internet, to the integrated analysis and use of data, to the digitalization of products and services, to new disruptive business models and to the cooperation within the value chain. It is through the integration of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS), into the maintenance process that it is possible to carry out a continuous monitoring of industrial machines, as well as to apply advanced techniques for predictive and proactive maintenance. The present work is based on the MANTIS project, aiming to construct a specific platform for the proactive maintenance of industrial machines, targeting particularly the case of GreenBender ADIRA Steel Sheet. In other words, the aim is to reduce maintenance costs, increase the efficiency of the process and consequently the profit. Essentially, the MANTIS project is a multinational research project, where the CISTER Research Unit plays a key role, particularly in providing the communications infrastructure for one MANTIS Pilot. The methodology is based on a follow-up study, which is jointly carried with the client, as well as within the scope of the implementation of the ADIRA Pilot. The macro phases that are followed in the present work are: 1) detailed analysis of the business needs; 2) preparation of the architecture specification; 3) implementation/development; 4) tests and validation; 5) support; 6) stabilization; 7) corrective and evolutionary maintenance; and 8) final project analysis and corrective measures to be applied in future projects. The expected results of the development of such project are related to the integration of the industrial maintenance process, to the continuous monitoring of the machines and to the application of advanced techniques of preventive and proactive maintenance of industrial machines, particularly based on techniques and good practices of the Software Engineering area and on the integration of Cyber-Physical Systems.O potencial desenvolvido pela Indústria 4.0 dotará a indústria nacional de capacidades para desenvolver todo o tipo de procedimentos, especialmente a nível da diferenciação competitiva. As perspetivas e as motivações por detrás da Indústria 4.0 estão relacionadas com uma gestão essencialmente direcionada para a internet industrial, com uma análise integrada e utilização de dados, com a digitalização de produtos e de serviços, com novos modelos disruptivos de negócio e com uma cooperação horizontal no âmbito da cadeia de valor. É através da integração dos sistemas ciber-físicos no processo de manutenção que é possível proceder a um monitoramento contínuo das máquinas, tal como à aplicação de técnicas avançadas para a manutenção preditiva e pró-ativa das mesmas. O presente trabalho é baseado no projeto MANTIS, objetivando, portanto, a construção de uma plataforma específica para a manutenção pró-ativa das máquinas industriais, neste caso em concreto das prensas, que serão as máquinas industriais analisadas ao longo do presente trabalho. Dito de um outro modo, objetiva-se, através de uma plataforma em específico, reduzir todos os custos da sua manutenção, aumentando, portanto, os lucros industriais advindos da produção. Resumidamente, o projeto MANTIS consiste num projeto de investigação multinacional, onde a Unidade de Investigação CISTER desenvolve um papel fundamental, particularmente no fornecimento da infraestrutura de comunicação no Piloto MANTIS. A metodologia adotada é baseada num estudo de acompanhamento, realizado em conjunto com o cliente, e no âmbito da implementação do Piloto da ADIRA. As macro fases que são compreendidas por esta metodologia, e as quais serão seguidas, são: 1) análise detalhada das necessidades de negócio; 2) preparação da especificação da arquitetura; 3) implementação/desenvolvimento; 4) testes e validação; 5) suporte; 6) estabilização; 7) manutenção corretiva e evolutiva; e 8) análise final do projeto e medidas corretivas a aplicar em projetos futuros. Os resultados esperados com o desenvolvimento do projeto estão relacionados com a integração do processo de manutenção industrial, a monitorização contínua das máquinas e a aplicação de técnicas avançadas de manutenção preventiva e pós-ativa das máquinas, especialmente com base em técnicas e boas práticas da área de Engenharia de Software

A Complex Event Processing System for Monitoring of Manufacturing Systems

Future manufacturing systems will require to process large amounts of complex data due to a rising demand on visibility and vertical integration of factory floor devices with higher level systems. Systems contained in higher layers of the business model are rapidly moving towards a Service Oriented Architecture, inducing a tendency to push Web Technologies down to the factory floor level. Evidence of this trend is the addition of Web Services at the device level with Device Profile for Web Services and the transition of OPC based on COM/DCOM communication to OPC-UA based on Web Services. DPWS and OPC-UA are becoming nowadays the preferred options to provide on a device level, service-oriented solutions capable to extend with an Event Driven Architecture into manufacturing systems. This thesis provides an implementation of a factory shop floor monitor based on Complex Event Processing for event-driven manufacturing processes. Factory shop monitors are particularly used to inform the workshop personnel via alarms, notifications and, visual aids about the performance and status of a manufacturing process. This work abstracts the informative value of the event-cloud surrounding the factory shop floor by processing its content against rules and formulas to convert it to valuable pieces of information that can be exposed to business monitors and dashboards. As a result, a system with a generic framework for integrating heterogeneous sources was reached, transforming simple data into alarms and complex events containing a specific context within the manufacturing process

The Application of Data Analytics Technologies for the Predictive Maintenance of Industrial Facilities in Internet of Things (IoT) Environments

In industrial production environments, the maintenance of equipment has a decisive influence on costs and on the plannability of production capacities. In particular, unplanned failures during production times cause high costs, unplanned downtimes and possibly additional collateral damage. Predictive Maintenance starts here and tries to predict a possible failure and its cause so early that its prevention can be prepared and carried out in time. In order to be able to predict malfunctions and failures, the industrial plant with its characteristics, as well as wear and ageing processes, must be modelled. Such modelling can be done by replicating its physical properties. However, this is very complex and requires enormous expert knowledge about the plant and about wear and ageing processes of each individual component. Neural networks and machine learning make it possible to train such models using data and offer an alternative, especially when very complex and non-linear behaviour is evident. In order for models to make predictions, as much data as possible about the condition of a plant and its environment and production planning data is needed. In Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) environments, the amount of available data is constantly increasing. Intelligent sensors and highly interconnected production facilities produce a steady stream of data. The sheer volume of data, but also the steady stream in which data is transmitted, place high demands on the data processing systems. If a participating system wants to perform live analyses on the incoming data streams, it must be able to process the incoming data at least as fast as the continuous data stream delivers it. If this is not the case, the system falls further and further behind in processing and thus in its analyses. This also applies to Predictive Maintenance systems, especially if they use complex and computationally intensive machine learning models. If sufficiently scalable hardware resources are available, this may not be a problem at first. However, if this is not the case or if the processing takes place on decentralised units with limited hardware resources (e.g. edge devices), the runtime behaviour and resource requirements of the type of neural network used can become an important criterion. This thesis addresses Predictive Maintenance systems in IIoT environments using neural networks and Deep Learning, where the runtime behaviour and the resource requirements are relevant. The question is whether it is possible to achieve better runtimes with similarly result quality using a new type of neural network. The focus is on reducing the complexity of the network and improving its parallelisability. Inspired by projects in which complexity was distributed to less complex neural subnetworks by upstream measures, two hypotheses presented in this thesis emerged: a) the distribution of complexity into simpler subnetworks leads to faster processing overall, despite the overhead this creates, and b) if a neural cell has a deeper internal structure, this leads to a less complex network. Within the framework of a qualitative study, an overall impression of Predictive Maintenance applications in IIoT environments using neural networks was developed. Based on the findings, a novel model layout was developed named Sliced Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (SlicedLSTM). The SlicedLSTM implements the assumptions made in the aforementioned hypotheses in its inner model architecture. Within the framework of a quantitative study, the runtime behaviour of the SlicedLSTM was compared with that of a reference model in the form of laboratory tests. The study uses synthetically generated data from a NASA project to predict failures of modules of aircraft gas turbines. The dataset contains 1,414 multivariate time series with 104,897 samples of test data and 160,360 samples of training data. As a result, it could be proven for the specific application and the data used that the SlicedLSTM delivers faster processing times with similar result accuracy and thus clearly outperforms the reference model in this respect. The hypotheses about the influence of complexity in the internal structure of the neuronal cells were confirmed by the study carried out in the context of this thesis

A structured method for the optimization of the existing last mile logistic flows

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Knowledge Management and Business IntelligenceIn a fast-moving world some business exists due to the interconnectivity between countries. This happens because transports are able to reach the other side of the globe within few days and without being too expensive compensating the lower costs of production and competitive advantages. This is true for well-organized and big supply chains but even them can benefit from integration with disconnected and more complex supply chain as it is the case of e-commerce chains. The transaction of small packages from online shopping required in a totally distinct country of the place of production have very specific characteristics as they are spot flows, hard to predict and to combine with other goods owing to the fact that the destination of flows are different every time and it is not always worth it to dedicate a transport for such a small goods value and in addition most times, logistics have to answer to some challenging marketing requirements meaning they have time windows to fulfil. Last mile is a big part of logistics transports and is one important part of it that can really help companies having better prices and revenues for their transports. Last mile solutions need to be easy to implement and really have to translate in quick gains to logistic companies that are largely reducing their margins to increase competitiveness. In this context, the study aims to investigate and define a method following design Research Methodology hopping to draw some innovative solutions for the problem of last mile. In this respect, the work developed intends to study the solutions already implemented and extract insights on how distribution is made and how to maximize last mile profit through the mature of an algorithm able to reduce inefficiencies in a simple way without having to wiggle too much the structure of businesses as resources of last mile service providers are understood to be scarce as many last mile companies are small sized and running under big logistic players. The solution aims to attain the different marketing requirements exactly as it was defined without having to compromise anything but still being able to make good profit margins and perhaps make room for new opportunities to arise that previously were not profitable

Multi-scale biomechanical study of transport phenomena in the intervertebral disc

Intervertebral disc (IVD) degeneration is primarily involved in back pain, a morbidity that strongly affects the quality of life of individuals nowadays. Lumbar IVDs undergo stressful mechanical loads while being the largest avascular tissues in our body: Mechanical principles alone cannot unravel the intricate phenomena that occur at the cellular scale which are fundamental for the IVD regeneration. The present work aimed at coupling biomechanical and relevant molecular transport processes for disc cells to provide a mechanobiological finite element framework for a deeper understanding of degenerative processes and the planning of regenerative strategies. Given the importance of fluid flow within the IVD, the influence of poroelastic parameters such as permeabilities and solid-phase stiffness of the IVD subtissues was explored. A continuum porohyperelastic material model was then implemented. The angles of collagen fibers embedded in the annulus fibrosus (AF) were calibrated. The osmotic pressure of the central nucleus pulposus (NP) was also taken into account. In a parallel study of the human vertebral bone, microporomechanics was used together with experimental ultrasonic tests to characterize the stiffness of the solid matrix, and to provide estimates of poroelastic coefficients. Fluid dynamics analyses and microtomographic images were combined to understand the fluid exchanges at the bone-IVD interface. The porohyperelastic model of a lumbar IVD with poroelastic vertebral layers was coupled with a IVD transport model of three solutes - oxygen, lactate and glucose - interrelated to reproduce the glycolytic IVD metabolism. With such coupling it was possible to study the effect of deformations, fluid contents, solid-phase stiffness, permeabilities, pH, cell densities of IVD subtissues and NP osmotic pressure on the solute transport. Moreover, cell death governed by glucose deprivation and lactate accumulation was included to explore the mechanical effect on cell viability. Results showed that the stiffness of the AF had the most remarkable role on the poroelastic behavior of the IVD. The permeability of the thin cartilage endplate and the NP stiffness were also relevant. The porohyperelastic model was shown to reproduce the local AF mechanics, provided the fiber angles were calibrated regionally. Such back-calculation led to absolute values of fibers angles and to a global IVD poromechanical behavior in agreement with experiments in literature. The inclusion of osmotic pressure in the NP also led to stress values under confined compression comparable to those measured in healthy and degenerated NP specimens. For the solid bone matrix, axial and transverse stiffness coefficients found experimentally in the present work agreed with universal mass density-elasticity relationships, and combined with continuum microporomechanics provided poroelastic coefficients for undrained and drained cases. The effective permeability of the vertebral bony endplate calculated with fluid dynamics was highly correlated with the porosity measured in microtomographic images. The coupling of transport and porohyperelastic models revealed a mechanical effect acting under large volume changes and high compliance, favored by healthy rather than degenerated IVD properties. Such effect was attributed to strain-dependent diffusivities and diffusion distances and was shown to be beneficial for IVD cells due to the load-dependent increases of glucose levels. Cell density, NP osmotic pressure and porosity were the most important parameters affecting the coupled mechano-transport of metabolites. This novel study highlights the restoration of both cellular and mechanical factors and has a great potential impact for novel designs of treatments focused on tissue regeneration. It also provides methodological features that could be implemented in clinical image-based tools and improve the multiscale understanding of the human spine mechanobiology

THE POLITICS OF SOUTHERN ASIAN BALLISTIC MISSILES: TOWARDS A FRAMEWORK FOR A MUTUAL RESTRAINT REGIME

ABSTRACT Southern Asia is witnessing the rapid proliferation of ballistic missiles in and around the region. This proliferation phenomenon, together with ongoing and enduring conflicts amongst the “competing parties” (China, India and Pakistan) creates a potential surfacing of “nuclear flashpoint” in the region. This research is an endeavour to explore the causes of this nuclear and missile race amongst the Southern Asian powers (China, India, and Pakistan) with the help of the theory of strategic culture. This study proceeds in the following way: it assesses the geo-political forces at work in the region; examines the strategic culture of China, India and Pakistan; traces the motivation of these countries for the strategic weapon programmes and delivery systems; describes their nuclear doctrines and command and control structures; and the current status of their ballistic missile programmes. It then addresses the prospects for Pakistan, India and China to move towards a system of mutual restraint regime, in which international regime theory is discussed as a conceptual framework; cold war models of strategic arms limitation and reduction models are studied and the important role of Confidence and Security Building Measures (CSBMs) is identified. The same procedure is then applied in the context of Southern Asian region; problem areas identified with the help of CSBMs tools; and conclusions reached as to the potential to move beyond CSBMs into full restraint regime. The study finds the very nature of the overlapping threat perceptions and the continuance of the unresolved issues and disputes as the main hurdles in the successful restraint models. Recommendations are therefore made for more comprehensive CSBMs leading to a Southern Asian regional version of cold war prototypes of strategic arms limitation and reduction for a more comprehensive and fruitful restraint model, which might then be applied and adhered to at the global level. The study therefore opens new avenues of research and progress in the discipline

Sensor Networks and Their Applications: Investigating the Role of Sensor Web Enablement

The Engineering Doctorate (EngD) was conducted in conjunction with BT Research on state-of-the-art Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) projects. The first area of work is a literature review of WSN project applications, some of which the author worked on as a BT Researcher based at the world renowned Adastral Park Research Labs in Suffolk (2004-09). WSN applications are examined within the context of Machine-to-Machine (M2M); Information Networking (IN); Internet/Web of Things (IoT/WoT); smart home and smart devices; BT’s 21st Century Network (21CN); Cloud Computing; and future trends. In addition, this thesis provides an insight into the capabilities of similar external WSN project applications. Under BT’s Sensor Virtualization project, the second area of work focuses on building a Generic Architecture for WSNs with reusable infrastructure and ‘infostructure’ by identifying and trialling suitable components, in order to realise actual business benefits for BT. The third area of work focuses on the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards and their Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) initiative. The SWE framework was investigated to ascertain its potential as a component of the Generic Architecture. BT’s SAPHE project served as a use case. BT Research’s experiences of taking this traditional (vertical) stove-piped application and creating SWE compliant services are described. The author’s findings were originally presented in a series of publications and have been incorporated into this thesis along with supplementary WSN material from BT Research projects. SWE 2.0 specifications are outlined to highlight key improvements, since work began at BT with SWE 1.0. The fourth area of work focuses on Complex Event Processing (CEP) which was evaluated to ascertain its potential for aggregating and correlating the shared project sensor data (‘infostructure’) harvested and for enabling data fusion for WSNs in diverse domains. Finally, the conclusions and suggestions for further work are provided