55,527 research outputs found
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An Assessment of PIER Electric Grid Research 2003-2014 White Paper
This white paper describes the circumstances in California around the turn of the 21st century that led the California Energy Commission (CEC) to direct additional Public Interest Energy Research funds to address critical electric grid issues, especially those arising from integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation with the electric grid. It contains an assessment of the beneficial science and technology advances of the resultant portfolio of electric grid research projects administered under the direction of the CEC by a competitively selected contractor, the University of California’s California Institute for Energy and the Environment, from 2003-2014
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Modeling software design diversity
Design diversity has been used for many years now as a means of achieving a degree of fault tolerance in software-based systems. Whilst there is clear evidence that the approach can be expected to deliver some increase in reliability compared with a single version, there is not agreement about the extent of this. More importantly, it remains difficult to evaluate exactly how reliable a particular diverse fault-tolerant system is. This difficulty arises because assumptions of independence of failures between different versions have been shown not to be tenable: assessment of the actual level of dependence present is therefore needed, and this is hard. In this tutorial we survey the modelling issues here, with an emphasis upon the impact these have upon the problem of assessing the reliability of fault tolerant systems. The intended audience is one of designers, assessors and project managers with only a basic knowledge of probabilities, as well as reliability experts without detailed knowledge of software, who seek an introduction to the probabilistic issues in decisions about design diversity
Predicting Cost/Reliability/Maintainability of Advanced General Aviation Avionics Equipment
A methodology is provided for assisting NASA in estimating the cost, reliability, and maintenance (CRM) requirements for general avionics equipment operating in the 1980's. Practical problems of predicting these factors are examined. The usefulness and short comings of different approaches for modeling coast and reliability estimates are discussed together with special problems caused by the lack of historical data on the cost of maintaining general aviation avionics. Suggestions are offered on how NASA might proceed in assessing cost reliability CRM implications in the absence of reliable generalized predictive models
Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design
This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability
assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design
processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the
nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems
engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability
requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a
statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of
assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert
judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from
those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts
in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much
more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability
potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle.
An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale
systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for
methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses
that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a
number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework
that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the
design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287],
[arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at
http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science
(http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics
(http://www.imstat.org
Feasibility study of an Integrated Program for Aerospace-vehicle Design (IPAD) system. Volume 2: Characterization of the IPAD system, phase 1, task 1
The aircraft design process is discussed along with the degree of participation of the various engineering disciplines considered in this feasibility study
Metamodel-based importance sampling for structural reliability analysis
Structural reliability methods aim at computing the probability of failure of
systems with respect to some prescribed performance functions. In modern
engineering such functions usually resort to running an expensive-to-evaluate
computational model (e.g. a finite element model). In this respect simulation
methods, which may require runs cannot be used directly. Surrogate
models such as quadratic response surfaces, polynomial chaos expansions or
kriging (which are built from a limited number of runs of the original model)
are then introduced as a substitute of the original model to cope with the
computational cost. In practice it is almost impossible to quantify the error
made by this substitution though. In this paper we propose to use a kriging
surrogate of the performance function as a means to build a quasi-optimal
importance sampling density. The probability of failure is eventually obtained
as the product of an augmented probability computed by substituting the
meta-model for the original performance function and a correction term which
ensures that there is no bias in the estimation even if the meta-model is not
fully accurate. The approach is applied to analytical and finite element
reliability problems and proves efficient up to 100 random variables.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables. Preprint submitted to Probabilistic
Engineering Mechanic
Passenger transmission and productiveness of transit lines with high loads
Deterministic transit capacity analysis applies to planning, design and operational management of urban transit systems. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual (1) and Vuchic (2, 3) enable transit performance to be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity. This paper further defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures the transit task performed over distance. Passenger transmission (p-km/h) captures the passenger task delivered by service at speed. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. These measures are useful to operators in understanding their services’ or systems’ capabilities and passenger quality of service. This paper accounts for variability in utilized demand by passengers along a line and high passenger load conditions where passenger pass-up delay occurs. A hypothetical case study of an individual bus service’s operation demonstrates the usefulness of passenger transmission in comparing existing and growth scenarios. A hypothetical case study of a bus line’s operation during a peak hour window demonstrates the theory’s usefulness in examining the contribution of individual services to line productive performance. Scenarios may be assessed using this theory to benchmark or compare lines and segments, conditions, or consider improvements
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