Sensitivity Analysis of Accumulated Savings in Defined Contribution Pension System

In this article we analyze the effect of parameters in the standard model for calculation of accumulated savings in a defined contribution pension system. Three parameters affect accumulated savings in the standard model: saving duration, return of the pension fund and the growth in employee gross wage. By using a linear approximation we calculated marginal contributions for small changes in the parameters of the standard model and analyzed their relations for a set of referent parameters which are most suitable for the 2nd pillar pension system in Croatia. It is shown that the return of a pension fund has a major influence on accumulated savings, while the influence of the growth in employee gross wage is slightly smaller. Also, we calculated the influence of raising the contribution rate in the 2nd pillar on the accumulated savings in a simple scenario in which that rate is raised by equal amounts over the whole of a saving period. These results allow easier planning of pension insurance in the defined contribution system at a general level as well as at an individual level.defined contribution system, pension funds, parametric model, sensitivity analysis

SWARCH modeli

Zbog velikog utjecaja šokova na procjenu ARCH familije modela bila potrebna nova specifikacija koja dozvoljava promjene u režimu generirajućeg procesa. Cai [3] i Hamilton i Susmel [17], nezavisno predlažu SWARCH model, koji je dizajniran da obuhvati promjene režima u volatilnosti pomoću neopažene varijable stanja koja prati Markovljev lanac prvog reda sa diskretnim skupom stanja. U ovom radu, prezentirani su SWARCH modeli, s fokusom na SWARCH model razvijen od strane Hamiltona i Susmela [17], za koji je dan i prikaz procjene parametara i značajki modela te na temelju kojeg je i napravljen primjer upotrebe modela, naveden u ovom radu. Ukratko su opisani E-SWARCH model te multivarijantni SWARCH model, kao glavna proširenja osnovnog modela. Glavni zaključak je da model primjereno modelira pojave tijekom kojih dolazi do promjena u volatilnosti, bitno reducirajući ustrajnost utjecaja šokova i time dodatno naglašava potrebu za modelom uvjetne varijance koji dozvoljava stohastička prebacivanja. Također, model dopušta datiranje i time identifikaciju glavnih epizoda i događaja u pozadini visoko volatilnih perioda na financijskim tržištima.Because of the large influence of shocks on the estimation of ARCH family of models, a new specification was needed, which will allow changes in the regime of the generating process. Cai [3] and Hamilton and Susmel [17], independently suggested SWARCH model, which was designed to capture regime switches in volatility with unobserved state variable that follows first order, discrete state Markov chain. In this paper, SWARCH models are presented, focusing on SWARCH model developed by Hamilton and Susmel [17], for which is given the parameter estimation procedure and features of the model, and on which basis was made an example of usage of the model, referred to in this paper. Also, there are brief descriptions of the E-SWARCH model and multivariate SWARCH model, as major extensions of the basic model. The main conclusion is that the model adequately models phenomenona in which occurred the change in volatility, significantly reducing the persistence of shocks and thus further emphasizes the need for a model of conditional variance that allows the stochastic switching. Also, the model allows for time dating and identification of key episodes and events in the background of highly volatile periods in financial markets

Survey-Guided Change in Ship Design and Production: Prospects and Limitations

http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/116046/1/39015075508526.pd

Habitat urbanization and its effects on birds

By transforming landscapes, human activity creates new types of habitats with altered environmental characteristics that never existed before. As the process of habitat urbanization bears impact on more and more natural habitats, it is essential for us to understand the changes we bring forth in the ecological forces shaping urban animal communities. Birds are perhaps the most frequently studied model organisms by urban ecologists. It is a well known general pattern that urban avian communities have typically reduced species richness, while the density of a few successful species is often higher in cities than in adjacent more natural habitats. But it is less understood which mechanisms generate and uphold these community-level changes. In this review we discuss the most important components of the urban environment influencing birds’ physiology, behaviour or morphology, and compile several recent studies to illustrate their effects. To understand urban food webs we also review the results of bottom-up and top-down approach which suggest that altered food availability and predation may play key roles in forming recent urban bird communities. We encourage future research to focus more on experimental, manipulative studies, that would help us not just to realize general patterns but shed more light on the mechanisms, the underlying processes prompting changes in urban bird communities

Sensitivity Analysis of Accumulated Savings in Defined Contribution Pension System

In this article we analyze the effect of parameters in the standard model for calculation of accumulated savings in a defined contribution pension system. Three parameters affect accumulated savings in the standard model: saving duration, return of the pension fund and the growth in employee gross wage. By using a linear approximation we calculated marginal contributions for small changes in the parameters of the standard model and analyzed their relations for a set of referent parameters which are most suitable for the 2nd pillar pension system in Croatia. It is shown that the return of a pension fund has a major influence on accumulated savings, while the influence of the growth in employee gross wage is slightly smaller. Also, we calculated the influence of raising the contribution rate in the 2nd pillar on the accumulated savings in a simple scenario in which that rate is raised by equal amounts over the whole of a saving period. These results allow easier planning of pension insurance in the defined contribution system at a general level as well as at an individual level

Analiza utjecaja parametara u kapitaliziranom sustavu mirovinskog osiguranja

U ovom radu analiziramo utjecaj parametara u standardnome modelu za izračun iznosa kapitaliziranih sredstava u individualnome kapitaliziranom sustavu mirovinskog osiguranja. U standardnome modelu na iznos kapitaliziranih sredstava utječu tri veličine: trajanje štednje, prinos fonda i stopa rasta bruto plaća. Koristeći se linearnom aproksimacijom, izračunali smo faktore osjetljivosti na male promjene u parametrima za standardni model te analizirali njihove odnose za referentne vrijednosti parametara koji najbolje opisuju štednju u drugom stupu mirovinskog osiguranja u Hrvatskoj. Pokazali smo da najveći utjecaj na iznos kapitaliziranih sredstava ima prinos fonda, dok je utjecaj stope rasta bruto plaće samo neznatno manji. Također smo izračunali utjecaj povećanja stope izdvajanja u drugi stup na iznos kapitaliziranih sredstava u jednostavnom scenariju povećanja te stope u jednakim iznosima tijekom cjelokupnog vremena štednje. Dobiveni rezultati omogućuju jednostavnije planiranje mirovinskog osiguranja u sustavu individualne kapitalizirane štednje na razini cijelog sustava, ali i na individualnoj razini

Sensitivity Analysis of Accumulated Savings in Defined Contribution Pension System

In this article we analyze the effect of parameters in the standard model for calculation of accumulated savings in a defined contribution pension system. Three parameters affect accumulated savings in the standard model: saving duration, return of the pension fund and the growth in employee gross wage. By using a linear approximation we calculated marginal contributions for small changes in the parameters of the standard model and analyzed their relations for a set of referent parameters which are most suitable for the 2nd pillar pension system in Croatia. It is shown that the return of a pension fund has a major influence on accumulated savings, while the influence of the growth in employee gross wage is slightly smaller. Also, we calculated the influence of raising the contribution rate in the 2nd pillar on the accumulated savings in a simple scenario in which that rate is raised by equal amounts over the whole of a saving period. These results allow easier planning of pension insurance in the defined contribution system at a general level as well as at an individual level

Az utódgondozási rendszer szerepe a függőcinege ivari allokációjában = The role of parental care in sex allocation of Penduline Tits

A kutatasunk fo celja a fuggocinegek ivari konfliktusanak vizsgalata volt, specifikusan annak felmerese, hogy az ivari konfliktus hogyan befolyasolja a szex allokaciot. Tobb lenyeges lepest tettunk a celok elerese fele. Egyreszt, egy terepi vizsgalatsorozatban kumutattuk, hogy a himek szemcsikjanak merete es kondiciioja befolyasolja a szulok utodgondozo viselkedeset. Masreszt, egy aviariumi kiserletben tesztetunk 2 jelleget amik varhatoan szerepet jatszanak a tojok parvalasztasaban. Harmadreszt, becsultuk a himekl es nostenyek szaporodasi sikeret, es kimutattuk, hogy a neme erdeke ellentetes. | The objectiove of the project was to investigate sexual conflict in penduline tits, specifically, to assess the implication of this conflict for sex allocation. We made important advances to achieve this objective. First, carried out a series of field investigations that identified the eye-stripe size of males and their body condition as traits involved in parental decision. Second, in an aviary we tested 2 putative traits involved in female choice. Finally, we quantified the reproductive success of male and female penduline tits, and showed their antagonistic interest

A szociális viselkedés és az egyedek közötti rokonság kapcsolatának vizsgálata házi verebeken = The effects of relatedness on the social behaviour of house sparrows

A kutatásban három kérdésre kerestük a választ: (1) milyen rokonsági szerkezet jellemzi a házi verebek (Passer domesticus) téli csapatait, (2) azonosítják-e a madarak rokonaikat a csapatokban, és (3) befolyásolja-e a rokonság szociális viselkedésüket. Szabadon élő madarak molekuláris genetikai vizsgálatával kimutattuk, hogy a verébcsapatokra nem jellemző a rokon egyedek koncentrált előfordulása, azonban a legtöbb egyednek van legalább kisszámú közeli rokona a csapatokban. Fogságban tartott madarak vizsgálataiban azt találtuk, hogy a rokonság befolyásolja a madarak szociális viselkedését: a rokonok csapaton belül gyakrabban követik egymást; csapatos táplálkozásnál a tojók gyakrabban és többet potyáznak rokonaiktól; valamint a testvérek gyakrabban, de kisebb intenzitással verekednek egymással, mint nem rokon madarakkal. Eredményeink azt mutatják, hogy elsősorban az ismert rokonok (pl. testvérek) irányában viselkednek eltérően a madarak, azonban esetenként távolabbi (nem ismert) rokonokkal szembeni magatartásuk is különbözött a nem-rokonokkal szembeni viselkedéstől (pl. potyázás gyakorisága). Eredményeink elsőként igazolták, hogy a házi verebek felismerik közeli rokonaikat a csapattársak között, és hogy egyes szociális interakcióikat befolyásolja a csapattárshoz fűződő rokonság. | The project had three major questions: (1) how are birds related to each other in wild house sparrow (Passer domesticus) flocks, (2) are sparrows able to recognize their kin, and (3) does relatedness between flock-mates influence their social behavior? In a molecular genetic study of free-living birds, we found no evidence for concentrated occurrence of relatives in sparrow flocks. However, most birds had at least a few close relatives among their flock-mates. Studies on captive birds showed that their social behavior is affected by relatedness: relatives followed each other more often within the flocks than unrelated birds; females scrounged more often and more food from relatives than from unrelated birds; and siblings fought more often but less violently with each other than with unrelated flock-mates. Our results suggest that birds perform differential social behavior mainly towards familiar relatives (e.g. siblings), although we also observed some differential behaviors towards unfamiliar kin (e.g. frequent scrounging from non-sib and non-parent relatives). These results support that house sparrows are able to recognize their close kin in flocks, and that relatedness plays a role in their non-reproductive social interactions

Rezultati trgovine i konkurentnost slovačke drvoprerađivačke industrije unutar zemalja Višegradske skupine

The aim of this paper is to analyse trade performance and competitiveness of the Slovak wood processing industry sectors and their comparison with the Visegrad group countries. The competitiveness is studied for the products of primary wood processing, namely coniferous and non-coniferous sawnwood, wood based panels, wood pulp, paper and paperboard products. A set of trade performance and competitiveness indicators is used to analyse the position and changes in competitiveness of the respective countries in 2003-2012. In particular, Trade Specialisation Index, Export/Import Ratio, Standard Grubel-Lloyd Index, Revealed Comparative Advantage and Vollrath’s Revealed Competitive Advantage Indexes were used to identify comparative advantages and trade specialisation for individual forest product categories and a specific country’s performance. Within the group of analysed countries, Slovakia has revealed comparative advantage in most of the products, in particular in the trade with coniferous sawnwood, non-coniferous sawnwood, wood based panels and paper and paperboard products. Results of the analysis also pointed out that intra-industry specialisation is increasing with the level of value added to products.Cilj je rada bio analizirati učinkovitost trgovine i konkurentnost slovačke drvoprerađivačke industrije i usporediti ih sa zemljama Višegradske skupine. Konkurentnost je analizirana na proizvodima primarne prerade drva, i to na proizvodima piljenog drva četinjača i ostaloga piljenog drva, pločama na bazi drva, celulozi, papiru i proizvodima od kartona. Skup pokazatelja uspješnosti trgovine i konkurentnosti upotrijebljen je za analizu pozicije i promjene konkurentnosti pojedinih zemalja u razdoblju od 2003. do 2012. godine. Konkretno, indeks specijalizacije trgovine, omjer izvoza i uvoza, standardni Grubel-Lloydov indeks, indeks otkrivene komparativne prednosti i Vollrathov indeks otkrivene konkurentske prednosti upotrijebljeni su za identifi kaciju komparativnih prednosti i trgovinsku specijalizaciju za pojedine kategorije šumskih proizvoda i uspješnost određene zemlje. Unutar skupine analiziranih zemalja za Slovačku je utvrđena komparativna prednost za većinu proizvoda, osobito u trgovini piljenog drva četinjača i ostalog piljenog drva, ploča na bazi drva, celuloze, papira i proizvoda od kartona. Rezultati analize također su pokazali da specijalizacija unutar industrije povećava razinu dodane vrijednosti proizvoda