QUANTIFYING THE HETEROGENEITY OF ABATEMENT COSTS UNDER CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION CHANGES: AN INTEGRATED MODELLING APPROACH

We present here preliminary results of an integrated modelling approach combining a crop model (STICS) and an economic model (AROPAj) of European agricultural supply. This modelling framework is designed to perform quantitative analysis, regarding climate change impacts on agriculture and more generally the interactions between soils, land use, agriculture and climate integrating physical and economical elements (data, process, models). It explicitly integrates an agricultural diversity dimension with regards to economic set of choices and soil climate spatial variability. First results are given in term of quantitative analysis combining optimal land allocation (economic optimality) and “dose-response” functions related to a large set of crops in Europe, at the farm group level, covering part of the European Union (EU15). They indicate that accounting for economical and spatial variability may impact both regional aggregated scales results.Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Impact of recent climate change and weather variability on the viability of UK viticulture - combining weather and climate records with producers' perspectives

Background and Aims: From 2004-2013 UK vineyard hectarage increased 161%. Observed climate change and underlying weather variability were assessed for their influence on UK viticulture development and viability. Methods and Results: UK grape growers’ perspectives on climate change and weather variability were complemented by a quantitative analysis of climate and weather data (1954-2013) for the main UK viticultural regions. Average growing season temperature (GSTave) variability was calculated and also mapped using a modelling approach. Since 1993 GSTave has consistently been above the 13oC cool climate viticulture threshold. GSTave alone does not reliably assure yield predictability but does correlate more closely following the recent increasing UK focus on sparkling wine varietals. June precipitation demonstrates the strongest relationship with yield. Conclusion: Increasing GSTave superficially suggests enhanced UK cool climate viticultural opportunities, but critically masks the additional impact of shorter term temperature and precipitation events and high degrees of inter-annual variability that continue to threaten productivity. A recent change in dominant UK vine varieties appears to have increased viticultural sensitivity to inter-annual weather variability. Significance of the Study: This first quantitative and qualitative analysis of climate vulnerability in UK viticulture identifies threats and opportunities, and helps steer future climate change impact studies

Modelling relational aspects of critical infrastructure systems

The relational aspects for critical infrastructure systems are not readily quantifiable as there are numerous variability&rsquo;s and system dynamics that lack uniformity and are difficult to quantify. Notwithstanding this, there is a large body of existing research that is founded in the area of quantitative analysis of critical infrastructure networks, their system relationships and the resilience of these networks. However, the focus of this research is to investigate the aspect of taking a different, more generalised and holistic system perspective approach. This is to suggest that that through applying network theory and taking a &lsquo;soft&rsquo; system-like modelling approach that this offers an alternative approach to viewing and modelling critical infrastructure system relational aspects that warrants further enquiry.<br /

Functional foods : a conceptual model for assessing their safety and effectiveness

This report shows that the product-diet dilemma can be solved by developing a predictive model. The model integrates food intake data, dynamic consumption patterns and the production chain model and combines them with a risk-benefit approach

Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleo-climate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5-PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5-Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change