Multiple Referrals and Multidimensional Cheap Talk

Cheap talk games have been widely used to analyze situations in which a policy maker needs expert advice. In previous work, agent uncertainty has almost always been modeled using a single-dimensional state variable. In this paper we prove that the dimensionality of the uncertain variable has an important qualitative impact on results and yields interesting insights into the 'mechanics' of information transmission. Contrary to the unidimensional case, with more than one dimension full transmission of information in all states of nature is typically possible, provided a very simple and intuitive condition is satisfied. When utilities are quadratic and there are simultaneous reports, linear independence of senders' ideal points is a sufficient condition to guarantee full revelation; with sequential reports, linear independence and a simple condition on the gradients of senders' utilities at the receiver's ideal point are sufficient. In particular as an application of the theory we are able to explain an empirical puzzle related to informational theories of legislative organization. These theories predict that legislative committees (senders) should have strong alignment of preferences with the Floor; but this doesn't fit with empirical facts. We prove that what really matters in transmission of information is the local behavior of the utilities of the senders at the ideal point of the policy maker (receiver), not the distances between the ideal points of players. We interpret this as an argument in support of informational theories of legislative organizations.

Sequential Voting with Abstention

Dekel and Piccione (2000) have proven that information cascades do not necessarily affect the properties of information aggregation in sequential elections: under standard conditions, any symmetric equilibrium of a simultaneous voting mechanism is also an equilibrium of the correspondent sequential mechanism. We show that when voters can abstain, these results are sensitive to the introduction of an arbitrarily small cost of voting: the set of equilibria in the two mechanisms are generally disjoint; and the informative properties of the equilibrium sets can be ranked. If an appropriate q-rule is chosen, when the cost of voting is small the unique symmetric equilibrium of the simultaneous voting mechanism dominates all equilibria of the sequential mechanism.

The Feasibility of Delivering a Home-based Motivational Exercise Program to African-American Breast Cancer Survivors

Most African-American breast cancer survivors do not meet current exercise recommendations for cancer survivors, which include both aerobic and strength-training exercises. This pilot study tested the feasibility of delivering a home-based exercise intervention to African-American breast cancer survivors. Sedentary African-American breast cancer survivors were recruited for a 16-week motivational home-based progressive aerobic and strength-training exercise pilot study. Participants completed weekly exercise logs and received weekly phone calls. To assess feasibility, we evaluated recruitment, retention, and adherence rates, as well as participant acceptance and safety. 17 women enrolled; 13 completed the intervention (76%). Participants had moderately-high adherence (70%) to walking goals, but only 51% for strength training goals which progressed to three times a week towards the end of the study. All women indicated that they planned to continue exercising regularly. Additionally, they all reported they would continue walking, but only nine of 13 indicated they would continue strength-training.This study addresses gaps in the exercise oncology literature since very few exercise studies have targeted African-American breast cancer survivors. Also, most exercise studies among breast cancer survivors have focused only on increasing aerobic physical activity. The intervention was feasible and safe to deliver. However, study modifications to improve recruitment and adherence in future mixed modality exercise interventions are recommended

A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation and Debt

This paper presents a dynamic political economy theory of public spending, taxation and debt. Policy choices are made by a legislature consisting of representatives elected by geographically-defined districts. The legislature can raise revenues via a distortionary income tax and by borrowing. These revenues can be used to finance a national public good and district-specific transfers (interpreted as pork-barrel spending). The value of the public good is stochastic, reflecting shocks such as wars or natural disasters. In equilibrium, policy-making cycles between two distinct regimes: “business-as-usual” in which legislators bargain over the allocation of pork, and “responsible-policy-making” in which policies maximize the collective good. Transitions between the two regimes are brought about by shocks in the value of the public good. In the long run, equilibrium tax rates are too high and too volatile, public good provision is too low, and debt levels are too high. In some environments, a balanced budget requirement can improve citizen welfare.

Inefficiency in Legislative Policy-Making: A Dynamic Analysis

This paper develops an infinite horizon model of public spending and taxation in which policy decisions are determined by legislative bargaining. The policy space incorporates both productive and distributive public spending and distortionary taxation. The productive spending is investing in a public good that benefits all citizens (e.g., national defense or air quality) and the distributive spending is district-specific transfers (e.g., pork barrel spending). Investment in the public good creates a dynamic linkage across policy-making periods. The analysis explores the dynamics of legislative policy choices, focusing on the efficiency of the steady state level of taxation and allocation of tax revenues. The model sheds new light on the efficiency of legislative policy-making and has a number of novel positive implications.

Fiscal Policy and Unemployment

This paper explores the interaction between fiscal policy and unemployment. It develops a dynamic economic model in which unemployment can arise but can be mitigated by tax cuts and public spending increases. Such policies are fiscally costly, but can be financed by issuing government debt. In the context of this model, the paper analyzes the simultaneous determination of fiscal policy and unemployment in long run equilibrium. Outcomes with both a benevolent government and political decision-making are studied. With political decision-making, the model yields a simple positive theory of fiscal policy and unemployment.

Pareto Efficient Income Taxation with Stochastic Abilities

This paper studies Pareto e.cient income taxation in an economy with infinitely-lived individuals whose income generating abilities evolve according to a two-state Markov process. The study yields two main results. First, when individuals are risk neutral, the fraction of individuals who face a positive marginal income tax rate is always positive but converges to zero. Moreover, the tax rate these individuals face also goes to zero. Second, Pareto e.cient income tax systems can be time-consistent even when the degree of correlation in ability types is largedynamic taxation,

A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation and Debt

This paper presents a dynamic political economy theory of public spending, taxation and debt. Policy choices are made by a legislature consisting of representatives elected by geographically-defined districts. The legislature can raise revenues via a distortionary income tax and by borrowing. These revenues can be used to finance a national public good and district-specific transfers (interpreted as pork-barrel spending). The value of the public good is stochastic, reflecting shocks such as wars or natural disasters. In equilibrium, policy-making cycles between two distinct regimes: %u201Cbusiness-as-usual%u201D in which legislators bargain over the allocation of pork, and %u201Cresponsible-policy-making%u201D in which policies maximize the collective good. Transitions between the two regimes are brought about by shocks in the value of the public good. In the long run, equilibrium tax rates are too high and too volatile, public good provision is too low and debt levels are too high. In some environments, a balanced budget requirement can improve citizen welfare.