Perancangan Aplikasi Peramalan untuk Metode Exponential Smoothing Menggunakan Aplikasi Lazarus (Studi Kasus: Data Konsumsi Listrik Kota Samarinda)

Exponential smoothing is forecasting method used to predict the future. Lazarus is an open source software based on free pascal compiler. at this research, program Lazarus be design used exponential smoothing method to predict electricity consumption data in Samarinda City from September to November 2018. Purposed of this researched is to determine the procedure of building an exponential smoothing forecasting application and obtained forecasting result using the built application. Procedure of built the application are designed interface, designed properties and filled coding. The optimum smoothing parameters were obtained used the golden section method. Based on the analysis, electricity consumption data in Samarinda City shows a trend pattern, then the forecasting was used double exponential smoohting (DES) method are DES Brown and DES Holt. The best forecasting method for at this researched is DES Holt, because DES Holt method produced MAPE 0,0659% less than DES Brown method produced MAPE 0,0843%

PERAMALAN TINGKAT PRODUKSI KAKAO TAHUN 2021 DI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING BROWN

Cocoa production in North Sumatera Province from 2007 to 2018 tends to decline. The low cocoa production in North Sumatera Province is below optimal conditions which impact on the economic sector, so forecasting is necessary in order to support the development of the upcoming cocoa industry in North Sumatera Province. The purpose of this study was to determine the amount of cocoa production in 2021 in North Sumatera Province using the double exponential smoothing brown method. With parameter values  and values  obtaining the form of the equation for forecasting the level of cocoa production in 2021 in North Sumatera Province using double exponential smoothing brown is . Form the research result, the amount of cocoa production in 2021 in North Sumatera Province obtained tons

Forecasting the Production Results of Medicine Horticultural Plants (Biofarmacies) in North Sumatra in 2020 and 2021 Using Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Method

Indonesian medicinal plants have a high contribution to world drug production. North Sumatra is one of provinces that produces a variety of traditional medicinal plants. The data in this study is secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra which is data on the amount of production of medicinal horicultural plants (biopharmaceuticals) from 2007-2019 using the method Double Exponential Smoothing Brown. The purpose of this research is to get the parameters α and shape forecasting equation that can be used to estimate the amount of production of the total production of horticultural crops medicin from 2006 to 2018 by using the size of the precision of the forecasting Mean absoulte Percentage Error in the method of Double Exponential Smoothing Brown. The parameter α is best used to predict the amount of horticultural crop production of medicinal was 0.24 with a yield forecasting in 2020 amounted to 8,454,007.24 kg and in 2021 amounted to 7,779,411.27 kg

PERAMALAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN VERIFIKASI HASIL PERAMALAN MENGGUNAKAN GRAFIK PENGENDALI TRACKING SIGNAL (STUDI KASUS: DATA IHK PROVINSI KALIMANTAN TIMUR)

This study uses IHK data from East Kalimantan Province in January 2016 to February 2019, which has a patterned trend. Data that shows a trend, can use double exponential smoothing forecasting one parameter from Brown and two parameters from Holt. The purpose of this study is to determine the best double exponential smoothing forecasting method based on the smallest MAPE value and verify the best forecasting method based on the tracking signal control chart. Based on the MAPE value of 0.361% and the control chart tracking signal value, the results of the study show that the best forecasting method is the two-parameter double exponential smoothing method of Holt with parameters  and

Forecasting Human Development Index With Double Exponential Smoothing Method And Acorrect Determination

Human development is now seen as a measure of the success of the development of a nation which is closely related to the economic, social, cultural, political and environmental fields. The success of human development is measured based on the Human Development Index (IPM). Boyolali Regency is one of the regencies in Central Java Province which has diverse and abundant natural resources. The large potential of natural resources owned should be in line with the quality of human development. However, it turns out that this is not in line with the HDI value of Boyolali Regency which is still below the average HDI value of Central Java. So that the Boyolali government continues to strive to maximize the potential and increase the HDI value. Based on this, it is necessary to do forecasting as a reference to maximize the level of human development in Boyolali Regency in the next few years. In this study, HDI forecasting in Boyolali Regency was carried out using the Double Exponential Smoothing method from Brown with the data used is HDI data in Boyolali Regency from 2011 to 2021. The data used was obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) Boyolali Regency. HDI forecasting was also carried out using the arithmetical method, and the best forecasting results were compared between the two methods based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Forecasting results using the Double Exponential Smoothing method produce the best alpha smoothing parameter values of 0.91 and MAPE values of 0.4061%. Meanwhile, using the arithmetic series method, the MAPE is 0.4704%. Both methods produce MAPE values with very good criteria, so that both methods can be used for forecasting. However, based on the criteria for the smallest MAPE value, the Double Exponential Smoothing method is used. The results of the HDI forecasting using the Double Exponential Smoothing method for 2022, 2023 and 2024 are 74.61, 74.81 and 75.02 respectively. While the results of forecasting with arithmetical method for the same years are 74.93, 75.45, and 75.98

PERAMALAN GARIS KEMISKINAN DI KABUPATEN PURBALINGGA TAHUN 2021-2023 DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING LINIER SATU PARAMETER DARI BROWN

Poverty is a major problem in a country. The Indonesian government has made various efforts to tackle the problem of poverty. The main problem faced in poverty alleviation is the large number of people living below the poverty line. Therefore, this study aims to predict the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for the next three periods as one of the efforts that can be made by the government in poverty alleviation. The method used in this study is a one-parameter linear double exponential smoothing from Brown. The software used in this research is Zaitun Time Series and Microsoft Excel. The steps taken are determining the forecasting objectives, plotting time series data, determining the appropriate method, determining the optimum parameter value, calculating the single exponential smoothing value, calculating double exponential smoothing value, calculate the smoothing constant value, calculate the trend coefficient value and perform forecasting. Based on the calculation results, the optimum alpha parameter value is 0.7 with MAPE value of 1.67866%, which means that this forecasting model has a very good performance. The forecast value of the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for 2021 is Rp. 396,516, in 2022 it is Rp. 417,818, and in 2023 it is Rp. 439,120

Pengendalian Persediaan Bahan Baku Nalco Water Treatment Dengan Menggunakan Metode Lot Sizing

The limited supply of Nalco raw materials from producers has become a problem for PT ABC, this has led to the control of raw material inventory at PT ABC not including good management, because in the management of raw materials the company still records inventory with manual systems and in ordering raw materials only based on estimates. From the results of the study, the forecasting method used is the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt's, Brown, and Holt Winters Additive Algorithm methods, from the three methods that are most suitable is the Double Exponential Smoothing Brown method with the smallest Mean Square Error of 256.2. Calculation of Sizing Lot by using Economic Order Quantity method, Least Unit Cost method, and Silver Meal method, of the three methods the most optimal is the Economic Order Quantity method because it has the lowest cost of Rp. 12,651,145. The calculation of Safety Stock gets 17 Pail results. and for Reorder Points for Nalco Water Treatment raw material, which is 29 Pail

SUSTAINABILITY OF THE COMPETITIVE POSITION OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISE: EVALUATION AND FORECASTING OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

The article is devoted to the study of the problem of assessing and forecasting the stability of competitive positions of agricultural enterprises. The analysis of theoretical approaches to the definition of the studied categories is carried out. Based on the essence of the competitive position, a methodical approach to assessing the competitive position of an agricultural enterprise is substantiated: a method of comparing the rate of change of the main economic indicators of an agricultural enterprise and the industry as a whole is proposed. The article calculates the forecast values of the integrated stability index of the competitive position and its components using the method of exponential smoothing using the Brown-Mayer model, which allowed to assess the dynamics and trends of agricultural enterprise. A model is proposed, which can not only assess the level of competitive position of the enterprise, but also identify areas of change in the level of competitive position of the enterprise as a whole and in terms of individual components, develop conceptual frameworks for effective management decisions.The article is devoted to the study of the problem of assessing and forecasting the stability of competitive positions of agricultural enterprises. The analysis of theoretical approaches to the definition of the studied categories is carried out. Based on the essence of the competitive position, a methodical approach to assessing the competitive position of an agricultural enterprise is substantiated: a method of comparing the rate of change of the main economic indicators of an agricultural enterprise and the industry as a whole is proposed. The article calculates the forecast values of the integrated stability index of the competitive position and its components using the method of exponential smoothing using the Brown-Mayer model, which allowed to assess the dynamics and trends of agricultural enterprise. A model is proposed, which can not only assess the level of competitive position of the enterprise, but also identify areas of change in the level of competitive position of the enterprise as a whole and in terms of individual components, develop conceptual frameworks for effective management decisions

Forecasting Of Production And Export Indonesian Pepper Commodities Using Smoothing Exponential And Holt Winter Methods

Purpose: The last few years the contribution of Indonesian pepper in the world market has decreased and has been replaced by Vietnam. If in 2000 and a few years before Indonesia became the world’s main pepper exporter, since 2001 the position has been replaced by Vietnam. In 2006 Indonesia’s position fell back to number three the world was replaced by Brazil which was ranked second. In 2006 Indonesian exports outperformed brazil and returned to rank second. Based on data from the Directorate General of Plantations in 2015, the area under pepper in Indonesia tends to decrease from 2004 to 2015 with an average reduction of area of 3064.5 hectares per year. Based on data from the Directorate General of Plantation in 2015, the area of pepper in Indonesia tends to decline from 2004-2015 with an average reduction of 3,064.5 hectares per year. The occurrence of the deduction according to the Ministry of Agriculture (2013), among others, is caused by: (a) drought; (b) Pest and disease attacks, especially stem rot and jaundice; and (c) conversion of pepper into mining or other plantation land, such as oil palm, rubber or cocoa. Design/methodology/approach:. Methods used to predict the number of production and consumption  of domestic and export of Indonesian pepper is Double exponential Smoothing Brown and the  Smoothing exponential method of Holt-Winter. Research limitations/implications: This Paper discusses the predictions of production and domestic consumption and the export of Indonesian pepper

Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Kota Tarakan dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dari Brown

The Tarakan City Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows trend patterns. This research is applied research with the aim of determining the best parameters and forecast results of Tarakan City CPI from January to May 2019 with the Double Exponential Smoothing method from Brown. The results of the Tarakan City CPI forecasting with the best parameters  0,5 with MAPE value = 0,670 from January to May 2019, respectively are 147,652; 148,481; 149,309; 150,138  and  150,966. These results indicate that the forecast of CPI in Tarakan City has increased every month. The higher the CPI value, the faster the inflation rate will have an impact on the rising prices of goods and services. By knowing CPI forecasting that continues to increase, the purchase of inventory of goods and services can be accelerated in order to avoid purchasing higher inventory