800 research outputs found
Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift.
Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well characterized, but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses, on the basis of analyses of 9,604 haemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000 to 2012. Whereas genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across several seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with East and Southeast Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller, less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as probable drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology, and human behaviour.T.B.
was
supported
by
a
Newton
International
Fellowship
from
the
Royal
Society
and
through
NIH
U54
GM111274.
S.R.
was
supported
by
MRC
(UK,
Project
MR/J008761/1),
Wellcome
Trust
(UK,
Project
093488/Z/10/Z),
Fogarty
International
Centre
(USA,
R01
TW008246â01),
DHS
(USA,
RAPIDD
program),
NIGMS
(USA,
MIDAS
U01
GM110721â01)
and
NIHR
(UK,
Health
Protection
Research
Unit
funding).
The
Melbourne
WHO
Collaborating
Centre
for
Reference
and
Research
on
Influenza
was
supported
by
the
Australian
Government
Department
of
Health
and
thanks
N.
Komadina
and
Y.âM.
Deng.
The
Atlanta
WHO
Collaborating
Center
for
Surveillance,
Epidemiology
and
Control
of
Influenza
was
supported
by
the
U.S.
Department
of
13
Health
and
Human
Services.
NIV
thanks
A.C.
Mishra,
M.
ChawlaâSarkar,
A.M.
Abraham,
D.
Biswas,
S.
Shrikhande,
AnuKumar
B,
and
A.
Jain.
Influenza
surveillance
in
India
was
expanded,
in
part,
through
US
Cooperative
Agreements
(5U50C1024407
and
U51IP000333)
and
by
the
Indian
Council
of
Medical
Research.
M.A.S.
was
supported
through
NSF
DMS
1264153
and
NIH
R01
AI
107034.
Work
of
the
WHO
Collaborating
Centre
for
Reference
and
Research
on
Influenza
at
the
MRC
National
Institute
for
Medical
Research
was
supported
by
U117512723.
P.L.,
A.R.
&
M.A.S
were
supported
by
EU
Seventh
Framework
Programme
[FP7/2007â2013]
under
Grant
Agreement
no.
278433-ÂâPREDEMICS
and
ERC
Grant
agreement
no.
260864.
C.A.R.
was
supported
by
a
University
Research
Fellowship
from
the
Royal
Society.This is the author accepted manuscript. It is currently under infinite embargo pending publication of the final version
The global antigenic diversity of swine influenza A viruses.
Swine influenza presents a substantial disease burden for pig populations worldwide and poses a potential pandemic threat to humans. There is considerable diversity in both H1 and H3 influenza viruses circulating in swine due to the frequent introductions of viruses from humans and birds coupled with geographic segregation of global swine populations. Much of this diversity is characterized genetically but the antigenic diversity of these viruses is poorly understood. Critically, the antigenic diversity shapes the risk profile of swine influenza viruses in terms of their epizootic and pandemic potential. Here, using the most comprehensive set of swine influenza virus antigenic data compiled to date, we quantify the antigenic diversity of swine influenza viruses on a multi-continental scale. The substantial antigenic diversity of recently circulating viruses in different parts of the world adds complexity to the risk profiles for the movement of swine and the potential for swine-derived infections in humans.Medical Research Council Fellowship MR/K021885/1 (JF
Influenza: From zoonosis to pandemic
Global surveillance and advances in vaccine technology are essential to answer the threat of influenza pandemics http://ow.ly/Yt3e
Genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B viruses on a global scale
The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally
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Universal or Specific? A Modeling-Based Comparison of Broad-Spectrum Influenza Vaccines against Conventional, Strain-Matched Vaccines
Despite the availability of vaccines, influenza remains a major public health challenge. A key reason is the virus capacity for immune escape: ongoing evolution allows the continual circulation of seasonal influenza, while novel influenza viruses invade the human population to cause a pandemic every few decades. Current vaccines have to be updated continually to keep up to date with this antigenic change, but emerging âuniversalâ vaccinesâtargeting more conserved components of the influenza virusâoffer the potential to act across all influenza A strains and subtypes. Influenza vaccination programmes around the world are steadily increasing in their population coverage. In future, how might intensive, routine immunization with novel vaccines compare against similar mass programmes utilizing conventional vaccines? Specifically, how might novel and conventional vaccines compare, in terms of cumulative incidence and rates of antigenic evolution of seasonal influenza? What are their potential implications for the impact of pandemic emergence? Here we present a new mathematical model, capturing both transmission dynamics and antigenic evolution of influenza in a simple framework, to explore these questions. We find that, even when matched by per-dose efficacy, universal vaccines could dampen population-level transmission over several seasons to a greater extent than conventional vaccines. Moreover, by lowering opportunities for cross-protective immunity in the population, conventional vaccines could allow the increased spread of a novel pandemic strain. Conversely, universal vaccines could mitigate both seasonal and pandemic spread. However, where it is not possible to maintain annual, intensive vaccination coverage, the duration and breadth of immunity raised by universal vaccines are critical determinants of their performance relative to conventional vaccines. In future, conventional and novel vaccines are likely to play complementary roles in vaccination strategies against influenza: in this context, our results suggest important characteristics to monitor during the clinical development of emerging vaccine technologies
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Modelling the Epidemiological Dynamics of Seasonal Influenza Viruses at Local Scales
Seasonal influenza viruses are a substantial source of disease burden globally, causing epidemics across all climatic regions. Through error-prone RNA replication, influenza viruses can escape pre-existing humoral immunity and reinfect humans, resulting in recurrent epidemics within populations. From year to year, individual epidemics differ substantially in timing, duration and size. Despite intensive study, characterising the spatiotemporal patterns of virus circulation and identifying the underlying sources of this variability at global, regional and local scales remain as ongoing challenges. There is a need to reconcile environmental, virological and host drivers of virus epidemiological dynamics across diverse contexts. Such insights can only be generated through a holistic approach that integrates observational, ecological, experimental and modelling studies: this would enable more accurate and timely epidemiological forecasts and more efficient allocation of public health resources.
In this thesis, I investigate the phylodynamical interactions between the seasonal influenza virus, environment and human host population, integrating analyses from observational study and theoretical modelling approaches. The current knowledge gap on the drivers of local city-level epidemics is identified in Chapter 2 and subsequently addressed over 4 research chapters. In Chapter 3, I review existing epidemic detection algorithms and present a novel statistical model that I developed for use with noisy disease surveillance data and is optimised for the context of seasonal influenza. In Chapter 4, I apply this novel algorithm and analyse a 15-year dataset of 18,250 typed, subtyped, and antigenically characterised seasonal influenza viruses from the five most populous cities in Australia. With the necessary geographical and virus resolution, I quantify the effects of previously hypothesised environmental and virological factors. Most surprisingly, despite an apparent lack of marked change in virus antigenicity, individual antigenic variants are capable of reinvading the same population over consecutive seasons, which runs contrary to predictions made by existing mathematical models.
In Chapters 5 and 6, I investigate how antigenic variants are capable of causing recurrent epidemics at local scales by building upon previous theoretical modelling studies and developing a modelling framework to investigate the interactions between and joint effects exerted by the topology of cross-immunity and host contact structure within a population. In Chapter 5, I investigate the effects of correlations between network structure and individual susceptibility. In Chapter 6, I examine the population-level significance of age-specific changes to an individual's immune response. In Chapter 7, I review my findings and discuss how these new insights into virus ecology can open new avenues for better influenza control and future research
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