The construction of statistical expert systems with applications

PhD ThesisStatistical expert systems have grown more numerous over the last few years. However, the tools which are used in their development are largely modifications of existing methods from other areas. This means that the unique aspects of statistical problems may be omitted in their development. This thesis examines the way that a statistical consultant works, and proposes guidelines and tools for system development based on this. Section I provides a brief introduction to this area. Section II considers the problems faced in establishing the actual problem brought by a client. Two areas of particular interest are establishing the background subject and the facts of a problem. Two methods are proposed to tackle these areas. Also of interest is the way in which a consultant may select a statistical test. Section III introduces a program to elicit the rules used by a consultant. A disk containing the program and the functions used is included with this thesis.Science and Engineering Research Counci

Adaptive computer‐generated forces for simulator‐based training, Expert Systems with Applications

Simulator-based training is in constant pursuit of increasing level of realism. The transition from doctrine-driven computer-generated forces (CGF) to adaptive CGF represents one such effort. The use of doctrine-driven CGF is fraught with challenges such as modeling of complex expert knowledge and adapting to the trainees’ progress in real time. Therefore, this paper reports on how the use of adaptive CGF can overcome these challenges. Using a self-organizing neural network to implement the adaptive CGF, air combat maneuvering strategies are learned incrementally and generalized in real time. The state space and action space are extracted from the same hierarchical doctrine used by the rule-based CGF. In addition, this hierarchical doctrine is used to bootstrap the self-organizing neural network to improve learning efficiency and reduce model complexity. Two case studies are conducted. The first case study shows how adaptive CGF can converge to the effective air combat maneuvers against rule-based CGF. The subsequent case study replaces the rule-based CGF with human pilots as the opponent to the adaptive CGF. The results from these two case studies show how positive outcome from learning against rule-based CGF can differ markedly from learning against human subjects for the same tasks. With a better understanding of the existing constraints, an adaptive CGF that performs well against rule-based CGF and human subjects can be designed

Extended Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (E-FAHP): A General Approach

[EN] Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) methodologies have witnessed a growing development from the late 1980s until now, and countless FAHP based applications have been published in many fields including economics, finance, environment or engineering. In this context, the FAHP methodologies have been generally restricted to fuzzy numbers with linear type of membership functions (triangular numbers-TN-and trapezoidal numbers-TrN). This paper proposes an extended FAHP model (E-FAHP) where pairwise fuzzy comparison matrices are represented by a special type of fuzzy numbers referred to as (m,n)-trapezoidal numbers (TrN (m,n)) with nonlinear membership functions. It is then demonstrated that there are a significant number of FAHP approaches that can be reduced to the proposed E-FAHP structure. A comparative analysis of E-FAHP and Mikhailov's model is illustrated with a case study showing that E-FAHP includes linear and nonlinear fuzzy numbers.Reig-Mullor, J.; Pla Santamaría, D.; Garcia-Bernabeu, A. (2020). Extended Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (E-FAHP): A General Approach. Mathematics. 8(11):1-14. https://doi.org/10.3390/math8112014S114811Chai, J., Liu, J. N. K., & Ngai, E. W. T. (2013). Application of decision-making techniques in supplier selection: A systematic review of literature. Expert Systems with Applications, 40(10), 3872-3885. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2012.12.040Tavana, M., Zareinejad, M., Di Caprio, D., & Kaviani, M. A. (2016). An integrated intuitionistic fuzzy AHP and SWOT method for outsourcing reverse logistics. Applied Soft Computing, 40, 544-557. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2015.12.005Medasani, S., Kim, J., & Krishnapuram, R. (1998). An overview of membership function generation techniques for pattern recognition. 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A web-based decision support system for multi-criteria inventory classification using fuzzy AHP methodology. Expert Systems with Applications, 35(3), 1367-1378. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2007.08.041Isaai, M. T., Kanani, A., Tootoonchi, M., & Afzali, H. R. (2011). Intelligent timetable evaluation using fuzzy AHP. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(4), 3718-3723. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2010.09.030Büyüközkan, G., & Güleryüz, S. (2016). A new integrated intuitionistic fuzzy group decision making approach for product development partner selection. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 102, 383-395. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2016.05.038Zheng, G., Zhu, N., Tian, Z., Chen, Y., & Sun, B. (2012). Application of a trapezoidal fuzzy AHP method for work safety evaluation and early warning rating of hot and humid environments. Safety Science, 50(2), 228-239. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2011.08.042Calabrese, A., Costa, R., & Menichini, T. (2013). Using Fuzzy AHP to manage Intellectual Capital assets: An application to the ICT service industry. Expert Systems with Applications, 40(9), 3747-3755. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2012.12.081Ishizaka, A., & Nguyen, N. H. (2013). Calibrated fuzzy AHP for current bank account selection. Expert Systems with Applications, 40(9), 3775-3783. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2012.12.089Somsuk, N., & Laosirihongthong, T. (2014). A fuzzy AHP to prioritize enabling factors for strategic management of university business incubators: Resource-based view. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 85, 198-210. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.007Chan, H. K., Wang, X., & Raffoni, A. (2014). An integrated approach for green design: Life-cycle, fuzzy AHP and environmental management accounting. The British Accounting Review, 46(4), 344-360. doi:10.1016/j.bar.2014.10.004Tan, R. R., Aviso, K. B., Huelgas, A. P., & Promentilla, M. A. B. (2014). Fuzzy AHP approach to selection problems in process engineering involving quantitative and qualitative aspects. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 92(5), 467-475. doi:10.1016/j.psep.2013.11.005Rezaei, J., Fahim, P. B. M., & Tavasszy, L. (2014). Supplier selection in the airline retail industry using a funnel methodology: Conjunctive screening method and fuzzy AHP. Expert Systems with Applications, 41(18), 8165-8179. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2014.07.005Song, Z., Zhu, H., Jia, G., & He, C. (2014). Comprehensive evaluation on self-ignition risks of coal stockpiles using fuzzy AHP approaches. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 32, 78-94. doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2014.08.002Dong, M., Li, S., & Zhang, H. (2015). Approaches to group decision making with incomplete information based on power geometric operators and triangular fuzzy AHP. Expert Systems with Applications, 42(21), 7846-7857. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2015.06.007Mangla, S. K., Kumar, P., & Barua, M. K. (2015). Risk analysis in green supply chain using fuzzy AHP approach: A case study. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 104, 375-390. doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2015.01.001Mosadeghi, R., Warnken, J., Tomlinson, R., & Mirfenderesk, H. (2015). Comparison of Fuzzy-AHP and AHP in a spatial multi-criteria decision making model for urban land-use planning. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 49, 54-65. doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2014.10.001Lupo, T. (2016). A fuzzy framework to evaluate service quality in the healthcare industry: An empirical case of public hospital service evaluation in Sicily. Applied Soft Computing, 40, 468-478. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2015.12.010Tuljak-Suban, D., & Bajec, P. (2018). The Influence of Defuzzification Methods to Decision Support Systems Based on Fuzzy AHP with Scattered Comparison Matrix: Application to 3PLP Selection as a Case Study. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 26(03), 475-491. doi:10.1142/s021848851850023xAkbar, M. A., Shameem, M., Mahmood, S., Alsanad, A., & Gumaei, A. (2020). Prioritization based Taxonomy of Cloud-based Outsource Software Development Challenges: Fuzzy AHP analysis. Applied Soft Computing, 95, 106557. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106557Jung, H. (2011). A fuzzy AHP–GP approach for integrated production-planning considering manufacturing partners. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(5), 5833-5840. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2010.11.039Shaw, K., Shankar, R., Yadav, S. S., & Thakur, L. S. (2012). Supplier selection using fuzzy AHP and fuzzy multi-objective linear programming for developing low carbon supply chain. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(9), 8182-8192. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2012.01.149Abdullah, L., & Zulkifli, N. (2015). Integration of fuzzy AHP and interval type-2 fuzzy DEMATEL: An application to human resource management. Expert Systems with Applications, 42(9), 4397-4409. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2015.01.021Akkaya, G., Turanoğlu, B., & Öztaş, S. (2015). An integrated fuzzy AHP and fuzzy MOORA approach to the problem of industrial engineering sector choosing. Expert Systems with Applications, 42(24), 9565-9573. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2015.07.061Kutlu, A. C., & Ekmekçioğlu, M. (2012). Fuzzy failure modes and effects analysis by using fuzzy TOPSIS-based fuzzy AHP. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(1), 61-67. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.06.044Büyüközkan, G., & Çifçi, G. (2012). A combined fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS based strategic analysis of electronic service quality in healthcare industry. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(3), 2341-2354. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.08.061Taylan, O., Bafail, A. O., Abdulaal, R. M. S., & Kabli, M. R. (2014). Construction projects selection and risk assessment by fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS methodologies. Applied Soft Computing, 17, 105-116. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2014.01.003Patil, S. K., & Kant, R. (2014). A fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS framework for ranking the solutions of Knowledge Management adoption in Supply Chain to overcome its barriers. Expert Systems with Applications, 41(2), 679-693. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2013.07.093Sun, L., Ma, J., Zhang, Y., Dong, H., & Hussain, F. K. (2016). Cloud-FuSeR: Fuzzy ontology and MCDM based cloud service selection. Future Generation Computer Systems, 57, 42-55. doi:10.1016/j.future.2015.11.025Ar, I. M., Erol, I., Peker, I., Ozdemir, A. I., Medeni, T. D., & Medeni, I. T. (2020). Evaluating the feasibility of blockchain in logistics operations: A decision framework. Expert Systems with Applications, 158, 113543. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2020.113543Yalcin, N., Bayrakdaroglu, A., & Kahraman, C. (2012). Application of fuzzy multi-criteria decision making methods for financial performance evaluation of Turkish manufacturing industries. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(1), 350-364. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.07.024Chang, S.-C., Tsai, P.-H., & Chang, S.-C. (2015). A hybrid fuzzy model for selecting and evaluating the e-book business model: A case study on Taiwan e-book firms. Applied Soft Computing, 34, 194-204. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2015.05.011Li, N., & Zhao, H. (2016). Performance evaluation of eco-industrial thermal power plants by using fuzzy GRA-VIKOR and combination weighting techniques. Journal of Cleaner Production, 135, 169-183. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.113Mandic, K., Delibasic, B., Knezevic, S., & Benkovic, S. (2014). Analysis of the financial parameters of Serbian banks through the application of the fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS methods. Economic Modelling, 43, 30-37. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.036Li, Y., Liu, X., & Chen, Y. (2012). Supplier selection using axiomatic fuzzy set and TOPSIS methodology in supply chain management. 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Agent based mobile negotiation for personalized pricing of last minute theatre tickets

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Expert Systems with Applications. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2012 Elsevier B.V.This paper proposes an agent based mobile negotiation framework for personalized pricing of last minutes theatre tickets whose values are dependent on the time remaining to the performance and the locations of potential customers. In particular, case based reasoning and fuzzy cognitive map techniques are adopted in the negotiation framework to identify the best initial offer zone and adopt multi criteria decision in the scoring function to evaluate offers. The proposed framework is tested via a computer simulation in which personalized pricing policy shows higher market performance than other policies therefore the validity of the proposed negotiation framework.The Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

On the use of case-based planning for e-learning personalization

This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Expert Systems with Applications. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Expert Systems with Applications, 60, 1-15, 2016. DOI:10.1016/j.eswa.2016.04.030In this paper we propose myPTutor, a general and effective approach which uses AI planning techniques to create fully tailored learning routes, as sequences of Learning Objects (LOs) that fit the pedagogical and students’ requirements. myPTutor has a potential applicability to support e-learning personalization by producing, and automatically solving, a planning model from (and to) e-learning standards in a vast number of real scenarios, from small to medium/large e-learning communities. Our experiments demonstrate that we can solve scenarios with large courses and a high number of students. Therefore, it is perfectly valid for schools, high schools and universities, especially if they already use Moodle, on top of which we have implemented myPTutor. It is also of practical significance for repairing unexpected discrepancies (while the students are executing their learning routes) by using a Case-Based Planning adaptation process that reduces the differences between the original and the new route, thus enhancing the learning process. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.This work has been partially funded by the Consolider AT project CSD2007-0022 INGENIO 2010 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, the MICINN project TIN2011-27652-C03-01, the MINECO and FEDER project TIN2014-55637-C2-2-R, the Mexican National Council of Science and Technology, the Valencian Prometeo project II/2013/019 and the BW5053 research project of the Free University of Bozen-Bolzano.Garrido Tejero, A.; Morales, L.; Serina, I. (2016). On the use of case-based planning for e-learning personalization. Expert Systems with Applications. 60:1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2016.04.030S1156

A game-based approach towards facilitating decision making for perishable products: an example of blood supply chain

NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Expert Systems with Applications. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Expert Systems with Applications, Volume 41, Issue 9, July 2014, Pages 4043–4059 doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2013.12.038Supply chains for perishable items consist of products with a fixed shelf life and limited production/collection; managing them requires competent decision-making. With the objective of placing the learners in the position of decision-makers, we propose the Blood Supply Chain Game which simulates the supply chain of blood units from donors to patients based on a real case study modeling the UK blood supply chain. The Excel-based game is an abstraction of the technical complex simulation model providing a more appropriate learning environment. This paper presents the game’s background, its mathematical formulations, example teaching scenarios and the learners’ evaluation. The game aims to translate qualitative aspects of a sensitive supply chain into quantitative economic consequences by presenting a process analysis and suggesting solutions for the patient’s benefit in a cost effective manner, trying to synchronize blood demand and supply and maximize the value of the whole supply chain. This innovative approach will be instructive for students and healthcare service professionals