Multimedia courseware: Never mind the quality how much will it cost to develop?

This paper evaluates multimedia courseware costing techniques such as the US Airforce Interactive Courseware Method (Golas, 1993), CBT Analyst (Kearsley, 1985), CEAC (Schooley, 1988) and MEEM (Marshall, Samson, Dugard, & Scott, 1994) against the data from ten multimedia courseware developments. The Relative Error and Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) are calculated to allow comparison of the different methods

Can k-NN imputation improve the performance of C4.5 with small software project data sets? A comparative evaluation

Missing data is a widespread problem that can affect the ability to use data to construct effective prediction systems. We investigate a common machine learning technique that can tolerate missing values, namely C4.5, to predict cost using six real world software project databases. We analyze the predictive performance after using the k-NN missing data imputation technique to see if it is better to tolerate missing data or to try to impute missing values and then apply the C4.5 algorithm. For the investigation, we simulated three missingness mechanisms, three missing data patterns, and five missing data percentages. We found that the k-NN imputation can improve the prediction accuracy of C4.5. At the same time, both C4.5 and k-NN are little affected by the missingness mechanism, but that the missing data pattern and the missing data percentage have a strong negative impact upon prediction (or imputation) accuracy particularly if the missing data percentage exceeds 40%

Predicting with sparse data

It is well known that effective prediction of project cost related factors is an important aspect of software engineering. Unfortunately, despite extensive research over more than 30 years, this remains a significant problem for many practitioners. A major obstacle is the absence of reliable and systematic historic data, yet this is a sine qua non for almost all proposed methods: statistical, machine learning or calibration of existing models. In this paper we describe our sparse data method (SDM) based upon a pairwise comparison technique and Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Our minimum data requirement is a single known point. The technique is supported by a software tool known as DataSalvage. We show, for data from two companies, how our approach — based upon expert judgement — adds value to expert judgement by producing significantly more accurate and less biased results. A sensitivity analysis shows that our approach is robust to pairwise comparison errors. We then describe the results of a small usability trial with a practising project manager. From this empirical work we conclude that the technique is promising and may help overcome some of the present barriers to effective project prediction

New product development resource forecasting

Forecasting resource requirements for new product development (NPD) projects is essential for both strategic and tactical planning. Sophisticated, elegant planning tools to present data and inform decision-making do exist. However, in NPD, such tools run on unreliable, estimation-based resource information derived through undefined processes. This paper establishes that existing methods do not provide transparent, consistent, timely or accurate resource planning information, highlighting the need for a new approach to resource forecasting, specifically in the field of NPD. The gap between the practical issues and available methods highlights the possibility of developing a novel design of experiments approach to create resource forecasting models

A systematic review of software development cost estimation studies

This paper aims to provide a basis for the improvement of software estimation research through a systematic review of previous work. The review identifies 304 software cost estimation papers in 76 journals and classifies the papers according to research topic, estimation approach, research approach, study context and data set. A web-based library of these cost estimation papers is provided to ease the identification of relevant estimation research results. The review results combined with other knowledge provide support for recommendations for future software cost estimation research, including: 1) Increase the breadth of the search for relevant studies, 2) Search manually for relevant papers within a carefully selected set of journals when completeness is essential, 3) Conduct more studies on estimation methods commonly used by the software industry, and, 4) Increase the awareness of how properties of the data sets impact the results when evaluating estimation methods

The usage of ISBSG data fields in software effort estimation: A systematic mapping study

[EN] The International Software Benchmarking Standards Group (ISBSG) maintains a repository of data about completed software projects. A common use of the ISBSG dataset is to investigate models to estimate a software project's size, effort, duration, and cost. The aim of this paper is to determine which and to what extent variables in the ISBSG dataset have been used in software engineering to build effort estimation models. For that purpose a systematic mapping study was applied to 107 research papers, obtained after a filtering process, that were published from 2000 until the end of 2013, and which listed the independent variables used in the effort estimation models. The usage of ISBSG variables for filtering, as dependent variables, and as independent variables is described. The 20 variables (out of 71) mostly used as independent variables for effort estimation are identified and analysed in detail, with reference to the papers and types of estimation methods that used them. We propose guidelines that can help researchers make informed decisions about which ISBSG variables to select for their effort estimation models.González-Ladrón-De-Guevara, F.; Fernández-Diego, M.; Lokan, C. (2016). The usage of ISBSG data fields in software effort estimation: A systematic mapping study. Journal of Systems and Software. 113:188-215. doi:10.1016/j.jss.2015.11.040S18821511

Data cleaning techniques for software engineering data sets

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Data quality is an important issue which has been addressed and recognised in research communities such as data warehousing, data mining and information systems. It has been agreed that poor data quality will impact the quality of results of analyses and that it will therefore impact on decisions made on the basis of these results. Empirical software engineering has neglected the issue of data quality to some extent. This fact poses the question of how researchers in empirical software engineering can trust their results without addressing the quality of the analysed data. One widely accepted definition for data quality describes it as `fitness for purpose', and the issue of poor data quality can be addressed by either introducing preventative measures or by applying means to cope with data quality issues. The research presented in this thesis addresses the latter with the special focus on noise handling. Three noise handling techniques, which utilise decision trees, are proposed for application to software engineering data sets. Each technique represents a noise handling approach: robust filtering, where training and test sets are the same; predictive filtering, where training and test sets are different; and filtering and polish, where noisy instances are corrected. The techniques were first evaluated in two different investigations by applying them to a large real world software engineering data set. In the first investigation the techniques' ability to improve predictive accuracy in differing noise levels was tested. All three techniques improved predictive accuracy in comparison to the do-nothing approach. The filtering and polish was the most successful technique in improving predictive accuracy. The second investigation utilising the large real world software engineering data set tested the techniques' ability to identify instances with implausible values. These instances were flagged for the purpose of evaluation before applying the three techniques. Robust filtering and predictive filtering decreased the number of instances with implausible values, but substantially decreased the size of the data set too. The filtering and polish technique actually increased the number of implausible values, but it did not reduce the size of the data set. Since the data set contained historical software project data, it was not possible to know the real extent of noise detected. This led to the production of simulated software engineering data sets, which were modelled on the real data set used in the previous evaluations to ensure domain specific characteristics. These simulated versions of the data set were then injected with noise, such that the real extent of the noise was known. After the noise injection the three noise handling techniques were applied to allow evaluation. This procedure of simulating software engineering data sets combined the incorporation of domain specific characteristics of the real world with the control over the simulated data. This is seen as a special strength of this evaluation approach. The results of the evaluation of the simulation showed that none of the techniques performed well. Robust filtering and filtering and polish performed very poorly, and based on the results of this evaluation they would not be recommended for the task of noise reduction. The predictive filtering technique was the best performing technique in this evaluation, but it did not perform significantly well either. An exhaustive systematic literature review has been carried out investigating to what extent the empirical software engineering community has considered data quality. The findings showed that the issue of data quality has been largely neglected by the empirical software engineering community. The work in this thesis highlights an important gap in empirical software engineering. It provided clarification and distinctions of the terms noise and outliers. Noise and outliers are overlapping, but they are fundamentally different. Since noise and outliers are often treated the same in noise handling techniques, a clarification of the two terms was necessary. To investigate the capabilities of noise handling techniques a single investigation was deemed as insufficient. The reasons for this are that the distinction between noise and outliers is not trivial, and that the investigated noise cleaning techniques are derived from traditional noise handling techniques where noise and outliers are combined. Therefore three investigations were undertaken to assess the effectiveness of the three presented noise handling techniques. Each investigation should be seen as a part of a multi-pronged approach. This thesis also highlights possible shortcomings of current automated noise handling techniques. The poor performance of the three techniques led to the conclusion that noise handling should be integrated into a data cleaning process where the input of domain knowledge and the replicability of the data cleaning process are ensured

Object-oriented software development effort prediction using design patterns from object interaction analysis

Software project management is arguably the most important activity in modern software development projects. In the absence of realistic and objective management, the software development process cannot be managed in an effective way. Software development effort estimation is one of the most challenging and researched problems in project management. With the advent of object-oriented development, there have been studies to transpose some of the existing effort estimation methodologies to the new development paradigm. However, there is not in existence a holistic approach to estimation that allows for the refinement of an initial estimate produced in the requirements gathering phase through to the design phase. A SysML point methodology is proposed that is based on a common, structured and comprehensive modeling language (OMG SysML) that factors in the models that correspond to the primary phases of object-oriented development into producing an effort estimate. This dissertation presents a Function Point-like approach, named Pattern Point, which was conceived to estimate the size of object-oriented products using the design patterns found in object interaction modeling from the late OO analysis phase. In particular, two measures are proposed (PP1 and PP2) that are theoretically validated showing that they satisfy wellknown properties necessary for size measures. An initial empirical validation is performed that is meant to assess the usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed measures in predicting the development effort of object-oriented systems. Moreover, a comparative analysis is carried out; taking into account several other size measures. The experimental results show that the Pattern Point measure can be effectively used during the OOA phase to predict the effort values with a high degree of confidence. The PP2 metric yielded the best results with an aggregate PRED (0.25) = 0.874

An Empirical investigation into software effort estimation by analogy

Most practitioners recognise the important part accurate estimates of development effort play in the successful management of major software projects. However, it is widely recognised that current estimation techniques are often very inaccurate, while studies (Heemstra 1992; Lederer and Prasad 1993) have shown that effort estimation research is not being effectively transferred from the research domain into practical application. Traditionally, research has been almost exclusively focused on the advancement of algorithmic models (e.g. COCOMO (Boehm 1981) and SLIM (Putnam 1978)), where effort is commonly expressed as a function of system size. However, in recent years there has been a discernible movement away from algorithmic models with non-algorithmic systems (often encompassing machine learning facets) being actively researched. This is potentially a very exciting and important time in this field, with new approaches regularly being proposed. One such technique, estimation by analogy, is the focus of this thesis. The principle behind estimation by analogy is that past experience can often provide insights and solutions to present problems. Software projects are characterised in terms of collectable features (such as the number of screens or the size of the functional requirements) and stored in a historical case base as they are completed. Once a case base of sufficient size has been cultivated, new projects can be estimated by finding similar historical projects and re-using the recorded effort. To make estimation by analogy feasible it became necessary to construct a software tool, dubbed ANGEL, which allowed the collection of historical project data and the generation of estimates for new software projects. A substantial empirical validation of the approach was made encompassing approximately 250 real historical software projects across eight industrial data sets, using stepwise regression as a benchmark. Significance tests on the results accepted the hypothesis (at the 1% confidence level) that estimation by analogy is a superior prediction system to stepwise regression in terms of accuracy. A study was also made of the sensitivity of the analogy approach. By growing project data sets in a pseudo time-series fashion it was possible to answer pertinent questions about the approach, such as, what are the effects of outlying projects and what is the minimum data set size? The main conclusions of this work are that estimation by analogy is a viable estimation technique that would seem to offer some advantages over algorithmic approaches including, improved accuracy, easier use of categorical features and an ability to operate even where no statistical relationships can be found