Real-time extraction of the Madden-Julian oscillation using empirical mode decomposition and statistical forecasting with a VARMA model

A simple guide to the new technique of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in a meteorological-climate forecasting context is presented. A single application of EMD to a time series essentially acts as a local high-pass filter. Hence, successive applications can be used to produce a bandpass filter that is highly efficient at extracting a broadband signal such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The basic EMD method is adapted to minimize end effects, such that it is suitable for use in real time. The EMD process is then used to efficiently extract the MJO signal from gridded time series of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. A range of statistical models from the general class of vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models was then tested for their suitability in forecasting the MJO signal, as isolated by the EMD. A VARMA (5, 1) model was selected and its parameters determined by a maximum likelihood method using 17 yr of OLR data from 1980 to 1996. Forecasts were then made on the remaining independent data from 1998 to 2004. These were made in real time, as only data up to the date the forecast was made were used. The median skill of forecasts was accurate (defined as an anomaly correlation above 0.6) at lead times up to 25 days

Detection of multiplicative noise in stationary random processes using second- and higher order statistics

This paper addresses the problem of detecting the presence of colored multiplicative noise, when the information process can be modeled as a parametric ARMA process. For the case of zero-mean multiplicative noise, a cumulant based suboptimal detector is studied. This detector tests the nullity of a specific cumulant slice. A second detector is developed when the multiplicative noise is nonzero mean. This detector consists of filtering the data by an estimated AR filter. Cumulants of the residual data are then shown to be well suited to the detection problem. Theoretical expressions for the asymptotic probability of detection are given. Simulation-derived finite-sample ROC curves are shown for different sets of model parameters

Analytical methods and experimental approaches for electrophysiological studies of brain oscillations

Brain oscillations are increasingly the subject of electrophysiological studies probing their role in the functioning and dysfunction of the human brain. In recent years this research area has seen rapid and significant changes in the experimental approaches and analysis methods. This article reviews these developments and provides a structured overview of experimental approaches, spectral analysis techniques and methods to establish relationships between brain oscillations and behaviour

Dynamic Decomposition of Spatiotemporal Neural Signals

Neural signals are characterized by rich temporal and spatiotemporal dynamics that reflect the organization of cortical networks. Theoretical research has shown how neural networks can operate at different dynamic ranges that correspond to specific types of information processing. Here we present a data analysis framework that uses a linearized model of these dynamic states in order to decompose the measured neural signal into a series of components that capture both rhythmic and non-rhythmic neural activity. The method is based on stochastic differential equations and Gaussian process regression. Through computer simulations and analysis of magnetoencephalographic data, we demonstrate the efficacy of the method in identifying meaningful modulations of oscillatory signals corrupted by structured temporal and spatiotemporal noise. These results suggest that the method is particularly suitable for the analysis and interpretation of complex temporal and spatiotemporal neural signals

Modeling the pulse signal by wave-shape function and analyzing by synchrosqueezing transform

We apply the recently developed adaptive non-harmonic model based on the wave-shape function, as well as the time-frequency analysis tool called synchrosqueezing transform (SST) to model and analyze oscillatory physiological signals. To demonstrate how the model and algorithm work, we apply them to study the pulse wave signal. By extracting features called the spectral pulse signature, {and} based on functional regression, we characterize the hemodynamics from the radial pulse wave signals recorded by the sphygmomanometer. Analysis results suggest the potential of the proposed signal processing approach to extract health-related hemodynamics features