An efficient and versatile approach to trust and reputation using hierarchical Bayesian modelling

In many dynamic open systems, autonomous agents must interact with one another to achieve their goals. Such agents may be self-interested and, when trusted to perform an action, may betray that trust by not performing the action as required. Due to the scale and dynamism of these systems, agents will often need to interact with other agents with which they have little or no past experience. Each agent must therefore be capable of assessing and identifying reliable interaction partners, even if it has no personal experience with them. To this end, we present HABIT, a Hierarchical And Bayesian Inferred Trust model for assessing how much an agent should trust its peers based on direct and third party information. This model is robust in environments in which third party information is malicious, noisy, or otherwise inaccurate. Although existing approaches claim to achieve this, most rely on heuristics with little theoretical foundation. In contrast, HABIT is based exclusively on principled statistical techniques: it can cope with multiple discrete or continuous aspects of trustee behaviour; it does not restrict agents to using a single shared representation of behaviour; it can improve assessment by using any observed correlation between the behaviour of similar trustees or information sources; and it provides a pragmatic solution to the whitewasher problem (in which unreliable agents assume a new identity to avoid bad reputation). In this paper, we describe the theoretical aspects of HABIT, and present experimental results that demonstrate its ability to predict agent behaviour in both a simulated environment, and one based on data from a real-world webserver domain. In particular, these experiments show that HABIT can predict trustee performance based on multiple representations of behaviour, and is up to twice as accurate as BLADE, an existing state-of-the-art trust model that is both statistically principled and has been previously shown to outperform a number of other probabilistic trust models

An Adaptive Trust Model Based on Fuzzy Logic

In cooperative environments is common that agents delegate tasks to each other to achieve their goals since an agent may not have the capabilities or resources to achieve its objectives alone. However, to select good partners, the agent needs to deal with information about the abilities, experience, and goals of their partners. In this situation, the lack or inaccuracy of information may affect the agent's judgment about a given partner; and hence, increases the risk to rely on an untrustworthy agent. Therefore, in this work, we present a trust model that combines different pieces of information, such as social image, reputation, and references to produce more precise information about the characteristics and abilities of agents. An important aspect of our trust model is that it can be easily configured to deal with different evaluation criteria. For instance, as presented in our experiments, the agents are able to select their partners by availability instead of the expertise level. Besides, the model allows the agents to decide when their own opinions about a partner are more relevant than the opinions received from third parties, and vice-versa. Such flexibility can be explored in dynamic scenarios, where the environment and the behavior of the agents might change constantly

Fuzzy Logic

The capability of Fuzzy Logic in the development of emerging technologies is introduced in this book. The book consists of sixteen chapters showing various applications in the field of Bioinformatics, Health, Security, Communications, Transportations, Financial Management, Energy and Environment Systems. This book is a major reference source for all those concerned with applied intelligent systems. The intended readers are researchers, engineers, medical practitioners, and graduate students interested in fuzzy logic systems

Towards a Model of Open and Reliable Cognitive Multiagent Systems: Dealing with Trust and Emotions

 Open multiagent systems are those in which the agents can enter or leave the system freely. In these systems any entity with unknown intention can occupy the environment. For this scenario trust and reputation mechanisms should be used to choose partners in order to request services or delegate tasks. Trust and reputation models have been proposed in the Multiagent Systems area as a way to assist agents to select good partners in order to improve interactions between them. Most of the trust and reputation models proposed in the literature take into account their functional aspects, but not how they affect the reasoning cycle of the agent. That is, under the perspective of the agent, a trust model is usually just a “black box” and the agents usually does not take into account their emotional state to make decisions as well as humans often do. As well as trust, agent’s emotions also have been studied with the aim of making the actions and reactions of the agents more like those of humans being in order to imitate their reasoning and decision making mechanisms. In this paper we analyse some proposed models found in the literature and propose a BDI and multi-context based agent model which includes emotional reasoning to lead trust and reputation in open multiagent systems

Application of Probabilistic Neural Networks to microhabitat suitability modelling for adult brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) in Iberian rivers

Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNN) have been tested for the first time in microhabitat suitability modelling for adult brown trout (Salmo trutta L.). The impact of data prevalence on PNN was studied. The PNN were evaluated in an independent river and the applicability of PNN to assess the environmental flow was analysed. Prevalence did not affect significantly the results. However PNN presented some limitations regarding the output range. Our results agreed previous studies because trout preferred deep microhabitats with medium-to-coarse substrate whereas velocity showed a wider suitable range. The 0.5 prevalence PNN showed similar classificatory capability than the 0.06 prevalence counterpart and the outputs covered the whole feasible range (from 0 to 1), but the 0.06 prevalence PNN showed higher generalisation because it performed better in the evaluation and it allowed a better modulation of the environmental flow. PNN has demonstrated to be a tool to be into consideration.The authors would like to thank the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for its financial support through the SCARCE project (Consolider-Ingenio 2010 CSD2009-00065). We are grateful to the colleagues who worked in the field and in the preliminary data analyses, especially Marta Bargay, Aina Hernandez and David Argibay. The works were partially funded by the Confederacion Hidrografica del Jucar (Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment), that also provided hydrological and environmental information about the study sites. The authors also thank the Direccion General del Agua and INFRAECO for the cession of the microhabitat data. Finally, we also thank Javier Ferrer, Teodoro Estrela and Onofre Gabaldo (Confederacion Hidrografica del Jucar) for their help and the data provided. Thanks to Grieg Davies for the academic review of English.Muñoz Mas, R.; Martinez-Capel, F.; Garófano-Gómez, V.; Mouton, A. (2014). Application of Probabilistic Neural Networks to microhabitat suitability modelling for adult brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) in Iberian rivers. Environmental Modelling and Software. 59:30-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.05.003S30435

Enhancing trustability in MMOGs environments

Massively Multiplayer Online Games (MMOGs; e.g., World of Warcraft), virtual worlds (VW; e.g., Second Life), social networks (e.g., Facebook) strongly demand for more autonomic, security, and trust mechanisms in a way similar to humans do in the real life world. As known, this is a difficult matter because trusting in humans and organizations depends on the perception and experience of each individual, which is difficult to quantify or measure. In fact, these societal environments lack trust mechanisms similar to those involved in humans-to-human interactions. Besides, interactions mediated by compute devices are constantly evolving, requiring trust mechanisms that keep the pace with the developments and assess risk situations. In VW/MMOGs, it is widely recognized that users develop trust relationships from their in-world interactions with others. However, these trust relationships end up not being represented in the data structures (or databases) of such virtual worlds, though they sometimes appear associated to reputation and recommendation systems. In addition, as far as we know, the user is not provided with a personal trust tool to sustain his/her decision making while he/she interacts with other users in the virtual or game world. In order to solve this problem, as well as those mentioned above, we propose herein a formal representation of these personal trust relationships, which are based on avataravatar interactions. The leading idea is to provide each avatar-impersonated player with a personal trust tool that follows a distributed trust model, i.e., the trust data is distributed over the societal network of a given VW/MMOG. Representing, manipulating, and inferring trust from the user/player point of view certainly is a grand challenge. When someone meets an unknown individual, the question is “Can I trust him/her or not?”. It is clear that this requires the user to have access to a representation of trust about others, but, unless we are using an open source VW/MMOG, it is difficult —not to say unfeasible— to get access to such data. Even, in an open source system, a number of users may refuse to pass information about its friends, acquaintances, or others. Putting together its own data and gathered data obtained from others, the avatar-impersonated player should be able to come across a trust result about its current trustee. For the trust assessment method used in this thesis, we use subjective logic operators and graph search algorithms to undertake such trust inference about the trustee. The proposed trust inference system has been validated using a number of OpenSimulator (opensimulator.org) scenarios, which showed an accuracy increase in evaluating trustability of avatars. Summing up, our proposal aims thus to introduce a trust theory for virtual worlds, its trust assessment metrics (e.g., subjective logic) and trust discovery methods (e.g., graph search methods), on an individual basis, rather than based on usual centralized reputation systems. In particular, and unlike other trust discovery methods, our methods run at interactive rates.MMOGs (Massively Multiplayer Online Games, como por exemplo, World of Warcraft), mundos virtuais (VW, como por exemplo, o Second Life) e redes sociais (como por exemplo, Facebook) necessitam de mecanismos de confiança mais autónomos, capazes de assegurar a segurança e a confiança de uma forma semelhante à que os seres humanos utilizam na vida real. Como se sabe, esta não é uma questão fácil. Porque confiar em seres humanos e ou organizações depende da percepção e da experiência de cada indivíduo, o que é difícil de quantificar ou medir à partida. Na verdade, esses ambientes sociais carecem dos mecanismos de confiança presentes em interacções humanas presenciais. Além disso, as interacções mediadas por dispositivos computacionais estão em constante evolução, necessitando de mecanismos de confiança adequados ao ritmo da evolução para avaliar situações de risco. Em VW/MMOGs, é amplamente reconhecido que os utilizadores desenvolvem relações de confiança a partir das suas interacções no mundo com outros. No entanto, essas relações de confiança acabam por não ser representadas nas estruturas de dados (ou bases de dados) do VW/MMOG específico, embora às vezes apareçam associados à reputação e a sistemas de reputação. Além disso, tanto quanto sabemos, ao utilizador não lhe é facultado nenhum mecanismo que suporte uma ferramenta de confiança individual para sustentar o seu processo de tomada de decisão, enquanto ele interage com outros utilizadores no mundo virtual ou jogo. A fim de resolver este problema, bem como os mencionados acima, propomos nesta tese uma representação formal para essas relações de confiança pessoal, baseada em interacções avatar-avatar. A ideia principal é fornecer a cada jogador representado por um avatar uma ferramenta de confiança pessoal que segue um modelo de confiança distribuída, ou seja, os dados de confiança são distribuídos através da rede social de um determinado VW/MMOG. Representar, manipular e inferir a confiança do ponto de utilizador/jogador, é certamente um grande desafio. Quando alguém encontra um indivíduo desconhecido, a pergunta é “Posso confiar ou não nele?”. É claro que isto requer que o utilizador tenha acesso a uma representação de confiança sobre os outros, mas, a menos que possamos usar uma plataforma VW/MMOG de código aberto, é difícil — para não dizer impossível — obter acesso aos dados gerados pelos utilizadores. Mesmo em sistemas de código aberto, um número de utilizadores pode recusar partilhar informações sobre seus amigos, conhecidos, ou sobre outros. Ao juntar seus próprios dados com os dados obtidos de outros, o utilizador/jogador representado por um avatar deve ser capaz de produzir uma avaliação de confiança sobre o utilizador/jogador com o qual se encontra a interagir. Relativamente ao método de avaliação de confiança empregue nesta tese, utilizamos lógica subjectiva para a representação da confiança, e também operadores lógicos da lógica subjectiva juntamente com algoritmos de procura em grafos para empreender o processo de inferência da confiança relativamente a outro utilizador. O sistema de inferência de confiança proposto foi validado através de um número de cenários Open-Simulator (opensimulator.org), que mostrou um aumento na precisão na avaliação da confiança de avatares. Resumindo, a nossa proposta visa, assim, introduzir uma teoria de confiança para mundos virtuais, conjuntamente com métricas de avaliação de confiança (por exemplo, a lógica subjectiva) e em métodos de procura de caminhos de confiança (com por exemplo, através de métodos de pesquisa em grafos), partindo de uma base individual, em vez de se basear em sistemas habituais de reputação centralizados. Em particular, e ao contrário de outros métodos de determinação do grau de confiança, os nossos métodos são executados em tempo real

IEEE Access Special Section Editorial: Big Data Technology and Applications in Intelligent Transportation

During the last few years, information technology and transportation industries, along with automotive manufacturers and academia, are focusing on leveraging intelligent transportation systems (ITS) to improve services related to driver experience, connected cars, Internet data plans for vehicles, traffic infrastructure, urban transportation systems, traffic collaborative management, road traffic accidents analysis, road traffic flow prediction, public transportation service plan, personal travel route plans, and the development of an effective ecosystem for vehicles, drivers, traffic controllers, city planners, and transportation applications. Moreover, the emerging technologies of the Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud computing have provided unprecedented opportunities for the development and realization of innovative intelligent transportation systems where sensors and mobile devices can gather information and cloud computing, allowing knowledge discovery, information sharing, and supported decision making. However, the development of such data-driven ITS requires the integration, processing, and analysis of plentiful information obtained from millions of vehicles, traffic infrastructures, smartphones, and other collaborative systems like weather stations and road safety and early warning systems. The huge amount of data generated by ITS devices is only of value if utilized in data analytics for decision-making such as accident prevention and detection, controlling road risks, reducing traffic carbon emissions, and other applications which bring big data analytics into the picture

Proceedings of the 1st Doctoral Consortium at the European Conference on Artificial Intelligence (DC-ECAI 2020)

1st Doctoral Consortium at the European Conference on Artificial Intelligence (DC-ECAI 2020), 29-30 August, 2020 Santiago de Compostela, SpainThe DC-ECAI 2020 provides a unique opportunity for PhD students, who are close to finishing their doctorate research, to interact with experienced researchers in the field. Senior members of the community are assigned as mentors for each group of students based on the student’s research or similarity of research interests. The DC-ECAI 2020, which is held virtually this year, allows students from all over the world to present their research and discuss their ongoing research and career plans with their mentor, to do networking with other participants, and to receive training and mentoring about career planning and career option

Combining literature-based and data-driven fuzzy models to predict brown trout (salmo trutta l.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change

[EN] A fuzzy rule-based system combining empirical data on hydraulic preferences and literature information on temperature requirements was used to foresee the brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change. The climatic scenarios for the Cabriel River (Eastern Iberian Peninsula) corresponded to two Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5) for the short (2011¿2040) and mid (2041¿2070) term horizons. The hydraulic and hydrologic modelling were undertaken with process-based numerical models (i.e., River2D© and HBV-light) while the water temperature was modelled by assembling the predictions of three machine learning techniques (M5, Multi-Adaptive Regression Splines and Support Vector Regression). The predicted rise in the water temperature will not be compensated by the more benign lower flows. Consequently, the suitable spawning habitat will be reduced between 15.4¿48.7%. The entire population shall suffer the effects of climate change and will probably be extirpated from the downstream segments of the river.The study has been partially funded by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) and FEDER funds and by the Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment). The authors thank AEMET and UC for the data provided for this work (dataset Spain02). Finally, we are grateful to the colleagues who worked in the field and in preliminary data analyses; especially Marcello Minervini (funded by the EU programme of Erasmus Traineeships, at the Dept. of Hydraulic Engineering and Environment, Universitat Politècnica de València).Muñoz Mas, R.; Marcos-García, P.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Martínez-García, F.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Martinez-Capel, F. (2018). Combining literature-based and data-driven fuzzy models to predict brown trout (salmo trutta l.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change. Ecological Modelling. 386:98-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.08.012S9811438