Guaranteed parameter estimation of ARARCH(1,1) with drifting parameter

In this paper we solve the estimation problem of the drifting parameter of ARARCH(1,1) model with guaranteed accuracy in the mean square sense by sample of fixed size. Cases of known and unknown noise variances are considered. For the first case we apply the truncated sequential estimation method and for the second one we use the truncated estimation method. It is shown that the obtained results can be applied to more general model

Efficiency of Finding Muon Track Trigger Primitives in CMS Cathode Strip Chambers

In the CMS Experiment, muon detection in the forward direction is accomplished by cathode strip chambers~(CSC). These detectors identify muons, provide a fast muon trigger, and give a precise measurement of the muon trajectory. There are 468 six-plane CSCs in the system. The efficiency of finding muon trigger primitives (muon track segments) was studied using~36 CMS CSCs and cosmic ray muons during the Magnet Test and Cosmic Challenge~(MTCC) exercise conducted by the~CMS experiment in~2006. In contrast to earlier studies that used muon beams to illuminate a very small chamber area ($< \! 0.01$~m$^2$), results presented in this paper were obtained by many installed CSCs operating {\em in situ} over an area of $\approx \! 23$~m$^2$ as a part of the~CMS experiment. The efficiency of finding 2-dimensional trigger primitives within 6-layer chambers was found to be~$99.93 \pm 0.03\%$. These segments, found by the CSC electronics within $800$~ns after the passing of a muon through the chambers, are the input information for the Level-1 muon trigger and, also, are a necessary condition for chambers to be read out by the Data Acquisition System

Ten millennia of hepatitis B virus evolution

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) has been infecting humans for millennia and remains a global health problem, but its past diversity and dispersal routes are largely unknown. We generated HBV genomic data from 137 Eurasians and Native Americans dated between ~10,500 and ~400 years ago. We date the most recent common ancestor of all HBV lineages to between ~20,000 and 12,000 years ago, with the virus present in European and South American hunter-gatherers during the early Holocene. After the European Neolithic transition, Mesolithic HBV strains were replaced by a lineage likely disseminated by early farmers that prevailed throughout western Eurasia for ~4000 years, declining around the end of the 2nd millennium BCE. The only remnant of this prehistoric HBV diversity is the rare genotype G, which appears to have reemerged during the HIV pandemic

Omecamtiv mecarbil in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, GALACTIC‐HF: baseline characteristics and comparison with contemporary clinical trials

Aims: The safety and efficacy of the novel selective cardiac myosin activator, omecamtiv mecarbil, in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is tested in the Global Approach to Lowering Adverse Cardiac outcomes Through Improving Contractility in Heart Failure (GALACTIC‐HF) trial. Here we describe the baseline characteristics of participants in GALACTIC‐HF and how these compare with other contemporary trials. Methods and Results: Adults with established HFrEF, New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA) ≥ II, EF ≤35%, elevated natriuretic peptides and either current hospitalization for HF or history of hospitalization/ emergency department visit for HF within a year were randomized to either placebo or omecamtiv mecarbil (pharmacokinetic‐guided dosing: 25, 37.5 or 50 mg bid). 8256 patients [male (79%), non‐white (22%), mean age 65 years] were enrolled with a mean EF 27%, ischemic etiology in 54%, NYHA II 53% and III/IV 47%, and median NT‐proBNP 1971 pg/mL. HF therapies at baseline were among the most effectively employed in contemporary HF trials. GALACTIC‐HF randomized patients representative of recent HF registries and trials with substantial numbers of patients also having characteristics understudied in previous trials including more from North America (n = 1386), enrolled as inpatients (n = 2084), systolic blood pressure &lt; 100 mmHg (n = 1127), estimated glomerular filtration rate &lt; 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 528), and treated with sacubitril‐valsartan at baseline (n = 1594). Conclusions: GALACTIC‐HF enrolled a well‐treated, high‐risk population from both inpatient and outpatient settings, which will provide a definitive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of this novel therapy, as well as informing its potential future implementation

Guaranteed parameter estimation of ARARCH(1,1) with drifting parameter

In this paper we solve the estimation problem of the drifting parameter of ARARCH(1,1) model with guaranteed accuracy in the mean square sense by sample of fixed size. Cases of known and unknown noise variances are considered. For the first case we apply the truncated sequential estimation method and for the second one we use the truncated estimation method. It is shown that the obtained results can be applied to more general model

Diagnosis and treatment in chronic pancreatitis: an international survey and case vignette study

Background The aim of the study was to evaluate the current opinion and clinical decision-making process of international pancreatologists, and to systematically identify key study questions regarding the diagnosis and treatment of chronic pancreatitis (CP) for future research. Methods An online survey, including questions regarding the diagnosis and treatment of CP and several controversial clinical case vignettes, was send by e-mail to members of various international pancreatic associations: IHPBA, APA, EPC, ESGE and DPSG. Results A total of 288 pancreatologists, 56% surgeons and 44% gastroenterologists, from at least 47 countries, participated in the survey. About half (48%) of the specialists used a classification tool for the diagnosis of CP, including the Mayo Clinic (28%), Mannheim (25%), or Büchler (25%) tools. Overall, CT was the preferred imaging modality for evaluation of an enlarged pancreatic head (59%), pseudocyst (55%), calcifications (75%), and peripancreatic fat infiltration (68%). MRI was preferred for assessment of main pancreatic duct (MPD) abnormalities (60%). Total pancreatectomy with auto-islet transplantation was the preferred treatment in patients with parenchymal calcifications without MPD abnormalities and in patients with refractory pain despite maximal medical, endoscopic, and surgical treatment. In patients with an enlarged pancreatic head, 58% preferred initial surgery (PPPD) versus 42% initial endoscopy. In patients with a dilated MPD and intraductal stones 56% preferred initial endoscopic ± ESWL treatment and 29% preferred initial surgical treatment. Conclusion Worldwide, clinical decision-making in CP is largely based on local expertise, beliefs and disbeliefs. Further development of evidence-based guidelines based on well designed (randomized) studies is strongly encouraged