Some aspects of the use of water-filled heat stores in gas-fired central-heating systems

Water-filled heat stores present a convenient, relatively inexpensive means of optimising the use of diminishing gas stocks for the central-heating of buildings. The British Gas Corporation recently launched a series of central-heating units with storage, for use in the domestic sector, whose benefits include: - reduced boiler size, more efficient boiler operation, load-levelling at the hours of peak gas demand. This thesis is divided into three parts. Part I examines the inherent advantage of a with-storage, domestic, central-heating system over a conventional system, by means of two simple computer-simulation programs. A minimum efficiency advantage of about 5% is anticipated; the variation of this advantage with the values of certain key parameters has been assessed. Part II is an interim report of a full-scale field trial in the commercial sector; a large (3.3m3) store was fitted in the heating system of a London school, and its performance during the first weeks of its operation is presented here. Returning to the domestic sector, Part III presents a study of the use of two integral heat exchangers in the storage vessels of the above domestic units, whereby hot water can be drawn instantaneously. An attempt to optimise this domestic hot-water facility has been made

Estimating scenarios for domestic water demand under drought conditions in England and Wales

This paper presents preliminary results from the development of IMPETUS model, a domestic water demand microsimulation model which was developed to estimate the results of a range of scenarios of domestic demand under drought conditions. The model is intended to enable water resource management practitioners to assess the likely impact of potential interventions in particular catchment areas. It has been designed to be driven by seasonal catchment level forecasts of potential hydrological droughts based on innovative climate and groundwater models. The current version of the model is driven by reconstructed historical drought data for the Colne catchment in the East of England from 1995 to 2014. This provides a framework of five drought phases (Normal, Developing, Drought, Severe and Recovering) which are mapped to policy driven interventions such as increased provision of water efficiency technologies and temporary water-use bans. The model uses UK Census 2011 data to develop a synthetic household population that matches the socio-demographics of the catchment and it microsimulates (at the household level) the consequences of water efficiency interventions retrospectively (1995-2014). Demand estimates for reconstructed drought histories are presented to demonstrate the potential value of the model in supporting cost-benefit analysis of specific interventions. We conclude by discussing future directions for the work

Estimating Small Area Income Deprivation: An Iterative Proportional Fitting Approach

Small area estimation and in particular the estimation of small area income deprivation has potential value in the development of new or alternative components of multiple deprivation indices. These new approaches enable the development of income distribution threshold based as opposed to benefit count based measures of income deprivation and so enable the alignment of regional and national measures such as the Households Below Average Income with small area measures. This paper briefly reviews a number of approaches to small area estimation before describing in some detail an iterative proportional fitting based spatial microsimulation approach. This approach is then applied to the estimation of small area HBAI rates at the small area level in Wales in 2003-5. The paper discusses the results of this approach, contrasts them with contemporary ‘official’ income deprivation measures for the same areas and describes a range of ways to assess the robustness of the results

Population-Level Effects of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Programs on Infections with Nonvaccine Genotypes

We analyzed human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalences during prevaccination and postvaccination periods to consider possible changes in nonvaccine HPV genotypes after introduction of vaccines that confer protection against 2 high-risk types, HPV16 and HPV18. Our meta-analysis included 9 studies with data for 13,886 girls and women ≤19 years of age and 23,340 women 20–24 years of age. We found evidence of cross-protection for HPV31 among the younger age group after vaccine introduction but little evidence for reductions of HPV33 and HPV45. For the group this same age group, we also found slight increases in 2 nonvaccine high-risk HPV types (HPV39 and HPV52) and in 2 possible high-risk types (HPV53 and HPV73). However, results between age groups and vaccines used were inconsistent, and the increases had possible alternative explanations; consequently, these data provided no clear evidence for type replacement. Continued monitoring of these HPV genotypes is important

Correlates of HIV-1 Genital Shedding in Tanzanian Women

Background: Understanding the correlates of HIV shedding is important to inform strategies to reduce HIV infectiousness. We examined correlates of genital HIV-1 RNA in women who were seropositive for both herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2 and HIV-1 and who were enrolled in a randomised controlled trial of HSV suppressive therapy (aciclovir 400 mg b.i.d vs. placebo) in Tanzania.Methodology: Samples, including a cervico-vaginal lavage, were collected and tested for genital HIV-1 and HSV and reproductive tract infections (RTIs) at randomisation and 6, 12 and 24 months follow-up. Data from all women at randomisation and women in the placebo arm during follow-up were analysed using generalised estimating equations to determine the correlates of cervico-vaginal HIV-1 RNA detection and load.Principal Findings: Cervico-vaginal HIV-1 RNA was detected at 52.0% of 971 visits among 482 women, and was independently associated with plasma viral load, presence of genital ulcers, pregnancy, bloody cervical or vaginal discharge, abnormal vaginal discharge, cervical ectopy, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Chlamydia trachomatis, Trichomonas vaginalis, an intermediate bacterial vaginosis score and HSV DNA detection. Similar factors were associated with genital HIV-1 RNA load.Conclusions: RTIs were associated with increased presence and quantity of genital HIV-1 RNA in this population. These results highlight the importance of integrating effective RTI treatment into HIV care services

Preparing Students to Work in Diverse Settings and Across Distance: Inter-University, Interdisciplinary Capstone Teams

NASA's Psyche Mission is engaged with a growing number of capstone teams pursuing topics relevant to the mission, including partnering with four universities to trial cross-university teaming. Creating interdisciplinary capstone teams with students from different universities provides an opportunity to prepare students to engage with a diversity of disciplines and collaborate in remote teams in the workplace. Additionally, through such capstones, universities may gain access to non-local, specialized technical mentors and to disciplines not offered at their institutions. An added benefit is providing greater fidelity to NASA space missions, which involve teams working together at a distance. We discuss early lessons learned from the first three inter-university, interdisciplinary capstone teams participating with the Psyche mission and discuss plans for improvement and future expansion

The role of pyroxenite in basalt genesis: Melt-PX, a melting parameterization for mantle pyroxenites between 0.9 and 5GPa

Geochemical and isotopic data suggest that the source regions of oceanic basalts may contain pyroxenite in addition to peridotite. In order to incorporate the wide range of compositions and melting behaviors of pyroxenites into mantle melting models, we have developed a new parameterization, Melt-PX, which predicts near-solidus temperatures and extents of melting as a function of temperature and pressure for mantle pyroxenites. We used 183 high-pressure experiments (25 compositions; 0.9–5 GPa; 1150–1675°C) to constrain a model of melt fraction versus temperature from 5% melting up to the disappearance of clinopyroxene for pyroxenites as a function of pressure, temperature, and bulk composition. When applied to the global set of experimental data, our model reproduces the experimental F values with a standard error of estimate of 13% absolute; temperatures at which the pyroxenite is 5% molten are reproduced with a standard error of estimate of 30°C over a temperature range of ~500°C and a pressure range of ~4 GPa. In conjunction with parameterizations of peridotite melting, Melt-PX can be used to model the partial melting of multilithologic mantle sources—including the effects of varying the composition and the modal proportion of pyroxenite in such source regions. Examples of such applications include calculations of isentropic decompression melting of a mixed peridotite + pyroxenite mantle; these show that although the potential temperature of the upwelling mantle plays an important role in defining the extent of magma production, the composition and mass fraction of the pyroxenite also exert strong controls

Exoplanet Science Priorities from the Perspective of Internal and Surface Processes for Silicate and Ice Dominated Worlds

The geophysics of extrasolar planets is a scientific topic often regarded as standing largely beyond the reach of near-term observations. This reality in no way diminishes the central role of geophysical phenomena in shaping planetary outcomes, from formation, to thermal and chemical evolution, to numerous issues of surface and near-surface habitability. We emphasize that for a balanced understanding of extrasolar planets, it is important to look beyond the natural biases of current observing tools, and actively seek unique pathways to understand exoplanet interiors as best as possible during the long interim prior to a time when internal components are more directly accessible. Such pathways include but are not limited to: (a) enhanced theoretical and numerical modeling, (b) laboratory research on critical material properties, (c) measurement of geophysical properties by indirect inference from imprints left on atmospheric and orbital properties, and (d) the purpose-driven use of Solar System object exploration expressly for its value in comparative planetology toward exoplanet-analogs. Breaking down barriers that envision local Solar System exploration, including the study of Earth's own deep interior, as separate from and in financial competition with extrasolar planet research, may greatly improve the rate of needed scientific progress for exoplanet geophysics. As the number of known rocky and icy exoplanets grows in the years ahead, we expect demand for expertise in 'exogeoscience' will expand at a commensurately intense pace. We highlight key topics, including: how water oceans below ice shells may dominate the total habitability of our galaxy by volume, how free-floating nomad planets may often attain habitable subsurface oceans supported by radionuclide decay, and how deep interiors may critically interact with atmospheric mass loss via dynamo-driven magnetic fields

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Highly Volcanic Exoplanets, Lava Worlds, and Magma Ocean Worlds:An Emerging Class of Dynamic Exoplanets of Significant Scientific Priority

Highly volcanic exoplanets, which can be variously characterized as 'lava worlds', 'magma ocean worlds', or 'super-Ios' are high priority targets for investigation. The term 'lava world' may refer to any planet with extensive surface lava lakes, while the term 'magma ocean world' refers to planets with global or hemispherical magma oceans at their surface. 'Highly volcanic planets', including super-Ios, may simply have large, or large numbers of, active explosive or extrusive volcanoes of any form. They are plausibly highly diverse, with magmatic processes across a wide range of compositions, temperatures, activity rates, volcanic eruption styles, and background gravitational force magnitudes. Worlds in all these classes are likely to be the most characterizable rocky exoplanets in the near future due to observational advantages that stem from their preferential occurrence in short orbital periods and their bright day-side flux in the infrared. Transit techniques should enable a level of characterization of these worlds analogous to hot Jupiters. Understanding processes on highly volcanic worlds is critical to interpret imminent observations. The physical states of these worlds are likely to inform not just geodynamic processes, but also planet formation, and phenomena crucial to habitability. Volcanic and magmatic activity uniquely allows chemical investigation of otherwise spectroscopically inaccessible interior compositions. These worlds will be vital to assess the degree to which planetary interior element abundances compare to their stellar hosts, and may also offer pathways to study both the very young Earth, and the very early form of many silicate planets where magma oceans and surface lava lakes are expected to be more prevalent. We suggest that highly volcanic worlds may become second only to habitable worlds in terms of both scientific and public long-term interest.Comment: A white paper submitted in response to the National Academy of Sciences 2018 Exoplanet Science Strategy solicitation, from the NASA Sellers Exoplanet Environments Collaboration (SEEC) of the Goddard Space Flight Center. 6 pages, 0 figure