Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Until NATO Membership, Extending the Joint Expeditionary Force Is the Best Option

There are no security "guarantees," but NATO membership is as close as it gets - and has long proven its effectiveness in deterring ­Russian aggression. It is thus the only real option for Ukraine - and for wider European security. Addressing the lack of political will to recognize this, especially in Washington and Berlin, means finding an interim solution that provides credible, collective security in the meantime and fosters more durable, fairly delivered European ­security in the long term

Optimizing the bioenergy water footprint by selecting SRC willow canopy phenotypes: regional scenario simulations

© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background and Aims: Bioenergy is central for the future energy mix to mitigate climate change impacts; however, its intricate link with the water cycle calls for an evaluation of the carbon–water nexus in biomass production. The great challenge is to optimize trade-offs between carbon harvest and water use by choosing cultivars that combine low water use with high productivity. Methods: Regional scenarios were simulated over a range of willow genotype × environment interactions for the major UK soil × climate variations with the process-based model LUCASS. Soil available water capacity (SAWC) ranged from 51 to 251 mm and weather represented the north-west (wet, cool), north-east (dry, cool), south-west (wet, warm) and south-east (dry, warm) of the UK. Scenario simulations were evaluated for small/open narrow-leaf (NL) versus large/closed broad-leaf (BL) willow canopy phenotypes using baseline (1965–89) and warmer recent (1990–2014) weather data. Key Results: The low productivity under baseline climate in the north could be compensated by choosing BL cultivars (e.g. ‘Endurance’). Recent warmer climate increased average productivity by 0.5–2.5 t ha−1, especially in the north. The modern NL cultivar ‘Resolution’ had the smallest and most efficient water use. On marginal soils (SAWC <100 mm), yields remained below an economic threshold of 9 t ha−1 more frequently under baseline than recent climate. In the drought-prone south-east, ‘Endurance’ yielded less than ‘Resolution’, which consumed on average 17 mm year−1 less water. Assuming a planting area of 10 000 ha, in droughty years between 1.3 and 4.5 × 106 m3 of water could be saved, with a small yield penalty, for ‘Resolution’. Conclusions: With an increase in air temperature and occasional water scarcities expected with climate change, high-yielding NL cultivars should be the preferred choice for sustainable use of marginal lands and reduced competition with agricultural food crops.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

The Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey: Giant Planet and Brown Dwarf Demographics From 10-100 AU

We present a statistical analysis of the first 300 stars observed by the Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey (GPIES). This subsample includes six detected planets and three brown dwarfs; from these detections and our contrast curves we infer the underlying distributions of substellar companions with respect to their mass, semi-major axis, and host stellar mass. We uncover a strong correlation between planet occurrence rate and host star mass, with stars M $>$ 1.5 $M_\odot$ more likely to host planets with masses between 2-13 M$_{\rm Jup}$ and semi-major axes of 3-100 au at 99.92% confidence. We fit a double power-law model in planet mass (m) and semi-major axis (a) for planet populations around high-mass stars (M $>$ 1.5M$_\odot$) of the form $\frac{d^2 N}{dm da} \propto m^\alpha a^\beta$, finding $\alpha$ = -2.4 $\pm$ 0.8 and $\beta$ = -2.0 $\pm$ 0.5, and an integrated occurrence rate of $9^{+5}_{-4}$% between 5-13 M$_{\rm Jup}$ and 10-100 au. A significantly lower occurrence rate is obtained for brown dwarfs around all stars, with 0.8$^{+0.8}_{-0.5}$% of stars hosting a brown dwarf companion between 13-80 M$_{\rm Jup}$ and 10-100 au. Brown dwarfs also appear to be distributed differently in mass and semi-major axis compared to giant planets; whereas giant planets follow a bottom-heavy mass distribution and favor smaller semi-major axes, brown dwarfs exhibit just the opposite behaviors. Comparing to studies of short-period giant planets from the RV method, our results are consistent with a peak in occurrence of giant planets between ~1-10 au. We discuss how these trends, including the preference of giant planets for high-mass host stars, point to formation of giant planets by core/pebble accretion, and formation of brown dwarfs by gravitational instability.Comment: 52 pages, 18 figures. AJ in pres

Asymmetries in adaptive optics point spread functions

An explanation for the origin of asymmetry along the preferential axis of the PSF of an AO system is developed. When phase errors from high altitude turbulence scintillate due to Fresnel propagation, wavefront amplitude errors may be spatially offset from residual phase errors. These correlated errors appear as asymmetry in the image plane under the Fraunhofer condition. In an analytic model with an open-loop AO system, the strength of the asymmetry is calculated for a single mode of phase aberration, which generalizes to two dimensions under a Fourier decomposition of the complex illumination. Other parameters included are the spatial offset of the AO correction, which is the wind velocity in the frozen flow regime multiplied by the effective AO time delay, and propagation distance or altitude of the turbulent layer. In this model, the asymmetry is strongest when the wind is slow and nearest to the coronagraphic mask when the turbulent layer is far away, such as when the telescope is pointing low towards the horizon. A great emphasis is made about the fact that the brighter asymmetric lobe of the PSF points in the opposite direction as the wind, which is consistent analytically with the clarification that the image plane electric field distribution is actually the inverse Fourier transform of the aperture plane. Validation of this understanding is made with observations taken from the Gemini Planet Imager, as well as being reproducible in end-to-end AO simulations

HD 165054: An Astrometric Calibration Field for High-contrast Imagers in Baade's Window

We present a study of the HD 165054 astrometric calibration field that has been periodically observed with the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI). HD 165054 is a bright star within Baade's Window, a region of the galactic plane with relatively low extinction from interstellar dust. HD 165054 was selected as a calibrator target due to the high number density of stars within this region (~3 stars per square arcsecond with H < 22), necessary because of the small field of view of the GPI. Using nine epochs spanning over five years, we have fit a standard five-parameter astrometric model to the astrometry of seven background stars within close proximity to HD 165054 (ρ < 2''). We achieved a proper motion precision of ~0.3 mas yr⁻¹ and constrained the parallax of each star to be ≾1 mas. Our measured proper motions and parallax limits are consistent with the background stars being a part of the galactic bulge. Using these measurements, we find no evidence of any systematic trend of either the plate scale or the north angle offset of GPI between 2014 and 2019. We compared our model describing the motions of the seven background stars to observations of the same field in 2014 and 2018 obtained with Keck/NIRC2, an instrument with excellent astrometric calibration. We find that the predicted position of the background sources is consistent with that measured by NIRC2, within the uncertainties of the calibration of the two instruments. In the future, we will use this field as a standard astrometric calibrator for the upgrade of GPI and potentially for other high-contrast imagers

An updated visual orbit of the directly-imaged exoplanet 51 Eridani b and prospects for a dynamical mass measurement with Gaia

We present a revision to the visual orbit of the young, directly-imaged exoplanet 51 Eridani b using four years of observations with the Gemini Planet Imager. The relative astrometry is consistent with an eccentric ($e=0.53_{-0.13}^{+0.09}$) orbit at an intermediate inclination ($i=136_{-11}^{+10}$\,deg), although circular orbits cannot be excluded due to the complex shape of the multidimensional posterior distribution. We find a semi-major axis of $11.1_{-1.3}^{+4.2}$\,au and a period of $28.1_{-4.9}^{+17.2}$\,yr, assuming a mass of 1.75\,M$_{\odot}$ for the host star. We find consistent values with a recent analysis of VLT/SPHERE data covering a similar baseline. We investigated the potential of using absolute astrometry of the host star to obtain a dynamical mass constraint for the planet. The astrometric acceleration of 51~Eri derived from a comparison of the {\it Hipparcos} and {\it Gaia} catalogues was found to be inconsistent at the 2--3$\sigma$ level with the predicted reflex motion induced by the orbiting planet. Potential sources of this inconsistency include a combination of random and systematic errors between the two astrometric catalogs or the signature of an additional companion within the system interior to current detection limits. We also explored the potential of using {\it Gaia} astrometry alone for a dynamical mass measurement of the planet by simulating {\it Gaia} measurements of the motion of the photocenter of the system over the course of the extended eight-year mission. We find that such a measurement is only possible ($>98$\% probability) given the most optimistic predictions for the {\it Gaia} scan astrometric uncertainties for bright stars, and a high mass for the planet ($\gtrsim3.6$\,M$_{\rm Jup}$).Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journa

The Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey : giant planet and brown dwarf demographics from 10 to 100 au

We present a statistical analysis of the first 300 stars observed by the Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey. This subsample includes six detected planets and three brown dwarfs; from these detections and our contrast curves we infer the underlying distributions of substellar companions with respect to their mass, semimajor axis, and host stellar mass. We uncover a strong correlation between planet occurrence rate and host star mass, with stars M* > 1.5 M⊙ more likely to host planets with masses between 2 and 13MJup and semimajor axes of 3–100 au at 99.92% confidence. We fit a double power-law model in planet mass (m) and semimajor axis (a) for planet populations around high-mass stars (M* > 1.5 M⊙) of the form d2N/(dm da) ∝ mα aβ, finding α = −2.4 ± 0.8 and β = −2.0 ± 0.5, and an integrated occurrence rate of 9+5-4% between 5–13MJup and 10–100 au. A significantly lower occurrence rate is obtained for brown dwarfs around all stars, with 0.8+0.8-0.5% of stars hosting a brown dwarf companion between 13–80MJup and 10–100 au. Brown dwarfs also appear to be distributed differently in mass and semimajor axis compared to giant planets; whereas giant planets follow a bottom-heavy mass distribution and favor smaller semimajor axes, brown dwarfs exhibit just the opposite behaviors. Comparing to studies of short-period giant planets from the radial velocity method, our results are consistent with a peak in occurrence of giant planets between ∼1 and 10 au. We discuss how these trends, including the preference of giant planets for high-mass host stars, point to formation of giant planets by core/pebble accretion, and formation of brown dwarfs by gravitational instability.Peer reviewe

Catching the Right Wave: Evaluating Wave Energy Resources and Potential Compatibility with Existing Marine and Coastal Uses

Many hope that ocean waves will be a source for clean, safe, reliable and affordable energy, yet wave energy conversion facilities may affect marine ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms, including competition with other human uses. We developed a decision-support tool to assist siting wave energy facilities, which allows the user to balance the need for profitability of the facilities with the need to minimize conflicts with other ocean uses. Our wave energy model quantifies harvestable wave energy and evaluates the net present value (NPV) of a wave energy facility based on a capital investment analysis. The model has a flexible framework and can be easily applied to wave energy projects at local, regional, and global scales. We applied the model and compatibility analysis on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada to provide information for ongoing marine spatial planning, including potential wave energy projects. In particular, we conducted a spatial overlap analysis with a variety of existing uses and ecological characteristics, and a quantitative compatibility analysis with commercial fisheries data. We found that wave power and harvestable wave energy gradually increase offshore as wave conditions intensify. However, areas with high economic potential for wave energy facilities were closer to cable landing points because of the cost of bringing energy ashore and thus in nearshore areas that support a number of different human uses. We show that the maximum combined economic benefit from wave energy and other uses is likely to be realized if wave energy facilities are sited in areas that maximize wave energy NPV and minimize conflict with existing ocean uses. Our tools will help decision-makers explore alternative locations for wave energy facilities by mapping expected wave energy NPV and helping to identify sites that provide maximal returns yet avoid spatial competition with existing ocean uses