Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.

Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum

Nonreceding hare lines: genetic continuity since the Late Pleistocene in European mountain hares (Lepus timidus)

Throughout time, climate changes have caused substantial rearrangements of habitats which have alternately promoted and disfavoured different types of taxa. At first glance, the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) shows the typical hallmarks of a cold-adapted species that has retreated to refugia since the onset of the current Holocene interglacial. In contrary to expectations, however, the species has a high contemporary genetic diversity with no clear differentiation between geographically isolated populations. In order to clarify the phylogeographic history of European mountain hares, we here analysed ancient DNA from the glacial populations that inhabited the previous midlatitude European tundra region. Our results reveal that the Ice Age hares had similar levels of genetic variation and lack of geographic structure as observed today, and the ancient samples were intermingled with modern individuals throughout the reconstructed evolutionary tree. This suggest a temporal genetic continuity in Europe, where the mountain hares were able to keep pace with the rapid changes at the last glacial/interglacial transition, and successfully track their shifting habitat to northern and alpine regions. Further, the temporal demographic analyses showed that the species’ population size in Europe appear to have been tightly linked with palaeoclimatic fluctuations, with increases and declines occurring during periods of global cooling and warming, respectively. Taken together, our results suggest that neither habitat shifts nor demographic fluctuations have had any substantial impact on the genetic diversity of European mountain hares. This remarkable resilience, which contrasts to a majority of previously investigated cold-adapted species, is likely due to its generalist nature which makes it less vulnerable to environmental changes

Spotted phenotypes in horses lost attractiveness in the Middle Ages

Horses have been valued for their diversity of coat colour since prehistoric times; this is especially the case since their domestication in the Caspian steppe in ~3,500 BC. Although we can assume that human preferences were not constant, we have only anecdotal information about how domestic horses were influenced by humans. Our results from genotype analyses show a significant increase in spotted coats in early domestic horses (Copper Age to Iron Age). In contrast, medieval horses carried significantly fewer alleles for these phenotypes, whereas solid phenotypes (i.e., chestnut) became dominant. This shift may have been supported because of (i) pleiotropic disadvantages, (ii) a reduced need to separate domestic horses from their wild counterparts, (iii) a lower religious prestige, or (iv) novel developments in weaponry. These scenarios may have acted alone or in combination. However, the dominance of chestnut is a remarkable feature of the medieval horse population.Peer Reviewe

Ancient mitogenomes from Pre-Pottery Neolithic Central Anatolia and the effects of a Late Neolithic bottleneck in sheep (Ovis aries)

Occupied between ~10,300 and 9300 years ago, the Pre-Pottery Neolithic site of Aşıklı Höyük in Central Anatolia went through early phases of sheep domestication. Analysis of 629 mitochondrial genomes from this and numerous sites in Anatolia, southwest Asia, Europe, and Africa produced a phylogenetic tree with excessive coalescences (nodes) around the Neolithic, a potential signature of a domestication bottleneck. This is consistent with archeological evidence of sheep management at Aşıklı Höyük which transitioned from residential stabling to open pasturing over a millennium of site occupation. However, unexpectedly, we detected high genetic diversity throughout Aşıklı Höyük's occupation rather than a bottleneck. Instead, we detected a tenfold demographic bottleneck later in the Neolithic, which caused the fixation of mitochondrial haplogroup B in southwestern Anatolia. The mitochondrial genetic makeup that emerged was carried from the core region of early Neolithic sheep management into Europe and dominates the matrilineal diversity of both its ancient and the billion-strong modern sheep populations

Demographic History of Indigenous Populations in Mesoamerica Based on mtDNA Sequence Data

The genetic characterization of Native American groups provides insights into their history and demographic events. We sequenced the mitochondrial D-loop region (control region) of 520 samples from eight Mexican indigenous groups. In addition to an analysis of the genetic diversity, structure and genetic relationship between 28 Native American populations, we applied Bayesian skyline methodology for a deeper insight into the history of Mesoamerica. AMOVA tests applying cultural, linguistic and geographic criteria were performed. MDS plots showed a central cluster of Oaxaca and Maya populations, whereas those from the North and West were located on the periphery. Demographic reconstruction indicates higher values of the effective number of breeding females (Nef) in Central Mesoamerica during the Preclassic period, whereas this pattern moves toward the Classic period for groups in the North and West. Conversely, Nef minimum values are distributed either in the Lithic period (i.e. founder effects) or in recent periods (i.e. population declines). The Mesomerican regions showed differences in population fluctuation as indicated by the maximum Inter-Generational Rate (IGRmax): i) Center-South from the lithic period until the Preclassic; ii) West from the beginning of the Preclassic period until early Classic; iii) North characterized by a wide range of temporal variation from the Lithic to the Preclassic. Our findings are consistent with the genetic variations observed between central, South and Southeast Mesoamerica and the North-West region that are related to differences in genetic drift, structure, and temporal survival strategies (agriculture versus hunter-gathering, respectively). Interestingly, although the European contact had a major negative demographic impact, we detect a previous decline in Mesoamerica that had begun a few hundred years before

An Agouti-Signaling-Protein Mutation is Strongly Associated with Melanism in European Roe Deer (Capreolus capreolus)

Although the European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) population of North-West Germany has a remarkable number of melanistic specimens between 10% and 25%, the underlying genetic mutation-causing melanism is still unknown. We used a gene targeting approach focusing on MC1R and ASIP as important genes of coat coloration. Overall, 1384 bp of MC1R and 2039 bp of ASIP were sequenced in 24 specimens and several SNPs were detected. But only the ASIP-SNP c.33G>T completely segregated both phenotypes leading to the amino acid substitution p.Leu11Phe. The SNP was further evaluated in additional 471 samples. Generally, all black specimens (n = 33) were homozygous TT, whereas chestnut individuals were either homozygote GG (n = 436) or heterozygote GT (n = 26). Considering the fact that all melanistic animals shared two mutated alleles of the strongly associated SNP, we concluded that melanism is inherited in a recessive mode in European roe deer.Peer Reviewe

Population Demography and Genetic Diversity in the Pleistocene Cave Lion

With a range that covered most of northern Eurasia and parts of North America, the cave lion (Panthera spelaea) was one of the most widespread carnivores of the Late Pleistocene. Earlier ancient DNA analyses have shown that it is distinct from modern lions, and have suggested a demographic decline in Beringia during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3). Here, we further investigate the Late Pleistocene population dynamics in more detail by combining a powerful algorithm that couples MCMC with coalescent simulations under an approximate Bayesian computation framework. We use an ancient DNA dataset of previously published (n = 34) and new radiocarbon dated specimens (n = 14). Phylogenetic and network analyses based on the mitochondrial control region and the ATP8 gene identified two major haplogroups, one of which appears to vanish around 41,000 cal a BP. The approximate Bayesian computation analysis suggested a decline in effective population size (Ne) in Beringia of at least a 2-fold magnitude that began approximately 47,000 cal a BP, followed by an increase in Ne, most likely around 18,000 cal a BP. The cave lion went through a demographic bottleneck during MIS 3, which may have lasted for several tens of thousands of years, and only recovered shortly before the species\u27 extinction. Several other large mammal species display similar declines in genetic diversity in Beringia during MIS 3, suggesting that major environmental changes might have affected megafaunal populations during this time period

Back to BaySICS: A User-Friendly Program for Bayesian Statistical Inference from Coalescent Simulations

<div><p>Inference of population demographic history has vastly improved in recent years due to a number of technological and theoretical advances including the use of ancient DNA. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) stands among the most promising methods due to its simple theoretical fundament and exceptional flexibility. However, limited availability of user-friendly programs that perform ABC analysis renders it difficult to implement, and hence programming skills are frequently required. In addition, there is limited availability of programs able to deal with heterochronous data. Here we present the software BaySICS: Bayesian Statistical Inference of Coalescent Simulations. BaySICS provides an integrated and user-friendly platform that performs ABC analyses by means of coalescent simulations from DNA sequence data. It estimates historical demographic population parameters and performs hypothesis testing by means of Bayes factors obtained from model comparisons. Although providing specific features that improve inference from datasets with heterochronous data, BaySICS also has several capabilities making it a suitable tool for analysing contemporary genetic datasets. Those capabilities include joint analysis of independent tables, a graphical interface and the implementation of Markov-chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods.</p></div