The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or 'effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2warming in some ensemble members.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.R.J.M. an

Implications of possible interpretations of 'greenhouse gas balance' in the Paris Agreement

The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C’. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on ‘greenhouse gas balance’ is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO2) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'

Moderate and heavy metabolic stress interval training improve arterial stiffness and heart rate dynamics in humans

Traditional continuous aerobic exercise training attenuates age-related increases of arterial stiffness, however, training studies have not determined whether metabolic stress impacts these favourable effects. Twenty untrained healthy participants (n = 11 heavy metabolic stress interval training, n = 9 moderate metabolic stress interval training) completed 6 weeks of moderate or heavy intensity interval training matched for total work and exercise duration. Carotid artery stiffness, blood pressure contour analysis, and linear and non-linear heart rate variability were assessed before and following training. Overall, carotid arterial stiffness was reduced (p  0.05). This study demonstrates the effectiveness of interval training at improving arterial stiffness and autonomic function, however, the metabolic stress was not a mediator of this effect. In addition, these changes were also independent of improvements in aerobic capacity, which were only induced by training that involved a high metabolic stress

Supported self-management in community stroke rehabilitation: what is it and how does it work? A protocol for a realist evaluation study.

INTRODUCTION: A growing evidence base demonstrates the effectiveness of supported self-management in stroke for stroke survivors and their families. However, there is significant variation in its implementation in community stroke care and little understanding about how supported self-management works and is delivered across different settings, models used and contexts of community stroke rehabilitation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Using a mixed method, realist approach across two phases, this protocol describes a study on community-based supported self-management. The aim is to identify the mechanisms and outcomes of supported self-management in stroke and to understand how supported self-management is implemented in different contexts of community stroke rehabilitation. Phase 1 involves (1) a realist synthesis, (2) a scoping and mapping of current community rehabilitation settings and (3) a Q-methodology study to develop initial programme theories about how community-based supported self-management works, for whom and in what contexts. Phase 2 involves realist informed interviews/focus groups with stroke survivors, community rehabilitation practitioners and team managers from across Scotland to test and refine programme theories and an explanatory model for how supported self-management works across different contexts of community-based stroke rehabilitation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval and R&D approvals have been granted from East of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (REC reference number: 19/ES/0055) and participating NHS boards. An understanding of how, for whom and in what contexts community-based supported self-management works will help to strengthen its delivery in practice. Such an understanding will enable the design of context-specific recommendations for policy and practice that genuinely reflect the challenges in implementing supported self-management in community stroke care. Results will be disseminated to clinical partners working in community stroke rehabilitation, stroke survivors and families and to policymakers and third sector partners involved in the provision of long-term support for people affected by stroke. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020166208

A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation

While cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dominate anthropogenic warming over centuries, temperatures over the coming decades are also strongly affected by short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), complicating the estimation of cumulative emission budgets for ambitious mitigation goals. Using conventional Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to convert SLCPs to “CO2-equivalent” emissions misrepresents their impact on global temperature. Here we show that peak warming under a range of mitigation scenarios is determined by a linear combination of cumulative CO2 emissions to the time of peak warming and non-CO2 radiative forcing immediately prior to that time. This may be understood by expressing aggregate non-CO2 forcing as cumulative CO2 forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions. We show further that contributions to CO2-fe emissions are well approximated by a new usage of GWP, denoted GWP*, which relates cumulative CO2 emissions to date with the current rate of emission of SLCPs. GWP* accurately indicates the impact of emissions of both long-lived and short-lived pollutants on radiative forcing and temperatures over a wide range of timescales, including under ambitious mitigation when conventional GWPs fail. Measured by GWP*,implementing the Paris Agreement would reduce the expected rate of warming in 2030 by 28% relative to a No Policy scenario. Expressing mitigation efforts in terms of their impact on future cumulative emissions aggregated using GWP* would relate them directly to contributions to future warming, better informing both burden-sharing discussions and long-term policies and measures in pursuit of ambitious global temperature goals

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Differential expression of VEGF-Axxx isoforms is critical for development of pulmonary fibrosis

RATIONALE Fibrosis after lung injury is related to poor outcome, and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) can be regarded as an exemplar. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-A has been implicated in this context, but there are conflicting reports as to whether it is a contributory or protective factor. Differential splicing of the VEGF-A gene produces multiple functional isoforms including VEGF-Aa and VEGF-Ab, a member of the inhibitory family. To date there is no clear information on the role of VEGF-A in IPF. OBJECTIVES To establish VEGF-A isoform expression and functional effects in IPF. METHODS We used tissue sections, plasma, and lung fibroblasts from patients with IPF and control subjects. In a bleomycin-induced lung fibrosis model we used wild-type MMTV mice and a triple transgenic mouse SPC-rtTATetoCreLoxP-VEGF-Ato conditionally induce VEGF-A isoform deletion specifically in the alveolar type II (ATII) cells of adult mice. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS IPF and normal lung fibroblasts differentially expressed and responded to VEGF-Aa and VEGF-Ab in terms of proliferation and matrix expression. Increased VEGF-Ab was detected in plasma of progressing patients with IPF. In a mouse model of pulmonary fibrosis, ATII-specific deficiency of VEGF-A or constitutive overexpression of VEGF-Ab inhibited the development of pulmonary fibrosis, as did treatment with intraperitoneal delivery of VEGF-Ab to wild-type mice. CONCLUSIONS These results indicate that changes in the bioavailability of VEGF-A sourced from ATII cells, namely the ratio of VEGF-Aa to VEGF-Ab, are critical in development of pulmonary fibrosis and may be a paradigm for the regulation of tissue repair

Female sex pheromone of the cone moth, dioryctria mendacella: Investigation of synergism between Type I and Type II pheromone components

Polyunsaturated hydrocarbons (Type II pheromone components) have been reported to be synergists for unsaturated acetates, alcohols or aldehydes (Type I components) in the sex pheromones of several species of Lepidoptera. However, there is some debate over whether the active components are the hydrocarbons themselves or more volatile degradation products. Extracts of pheromone glands of adult females of the cone moth, Dioryctria mendacella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), contain (Z,E)-9,11-tetradecadienyl acetate (ZE9,11-14:Ac) and at least ten times as much (Z,Z,Z,Z,Z)-3,6,9,12,15-pentacosapentaene (ZZZZZ3,6,9,12,15-25:H). The former elicits a strong electroantennogram response from males while no response could be recorded to the latter. In field trapping tests, both compounds were individually unattractive to male D. mendacella moths, but blends of the two compounds containing at least a 10:1 ratio of ZZZZZ3,6,9,12,15-25:H : ZE9,11-14:Ac were highly attractive. The relatively involatile hydrocarbon was shown to be released from the dispensers used and no significant degradation could be detected. Furthermore, blends of ZE9,11-14:Ac and analogs of ZZZZZ3,6,9,12,15-25:H with fewer carbons and/or double bonds that might be expected to produce similar degradation products to ZZZZZ3,6,9,12,15-25:H were unattractive. This indicated a specific response to the hydrocarbon itself, further substantiated by the observation that related hydrocarbons did not interfere with the activity of ZZZZZ3,6,9,12,15-25:H. Thus a three-step conversion of fish oil was used to produce a blend of unsaturated hydrocarbons containing ZZZZZ3,6,9,12,15-25:H as the major component, albeit only 30% of the total, and a blend of this material with ZE9,11-14:Ac was as attractive to male D. mendacella moths as blends with an equivalent amount of the purified material. This mixture of unsaturated hydrocarbons is much cheaper to produce than the pure pentaene, and may be useful in lures for other species using these compounds. Dioryctria mendacella is a major constraint to production of edible pine kernels throughout the Mediterranean region. Pheromone traps will provide a means to improve monitoring of seasonal flight patterns and changes in population abundance of this pest