Nearshore wave forecasting and hindcasting by dynamical and statistical downscaling

A high-resolution nested WAM/SWAN wave model suite aimed at rapidly establishing nearshore wave forecasts as well as a climatology and return values of the local wave conditions with Rapid Enviromental Assessment (REA) in mind is described. The system is targeted at regions where local wave growth and partial exposure to complex open-ocean wave conditions makes diagnostic wave modelling difficult. SWAN is set up on 500 m resolution and is nested in a 10 km version of WAM. A model integration of more than one year is carried out to map the spatial distribution of the wave field. The model correlates well with wave buoy observations (0.96) but overestimates the wave height somewhat (18%, bias 0.29 m). To estimate wave height return values a much longer time series is required and running SWAN for such a period is unrealistic in a REA setting. Instead we establish a direction-dependent transfer function between an already existing coarse open-ocean hindcast dataset and the high-resolution nested SWAN model. Return values are estimated using ensemble estimates of two different extreme-value distributions based on the full 52 years of statistically downscaled hindcast data. We find good agreement between downscaled wave height and wave buoy observations. The cost of generating the statistically downscaled hindcast time series is negligible and can be redone for arbitrary locations within the SWAN domain, although the sectors must be carefully chosen for each new location. The method is found to be well suited to rapidly providing detailed wave forecasts as well as hindcasts and return values estimates of partly sheltered coastal regions.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures and 2 tables, MREA07 special issue on Marine rapid environmental assessmen

How the IMF By\mathit{B}_{y} Induces a Local By\mathit{B}_{y} Component During Northward IMF Bz\mathit{B}_{z} and Characteristic Timescales

We use the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global magnetohydrodynamics model to study the effects of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) $\mathit{B}_{y}$ component on the coupling between the solar wind and magnetosphere-ionosphere system when IMF $\mathit{B}_{z}$ $>$0. We describe the evolution of how a magnetospheric $\mathit{B}_{y}$ component is induced on closed field lines during these conditions. Starting from dayside lobe reconnection, the magnetic tension on newly reconnected field lines redistribute the open flux asymmetrically between the two hemispheres. This results in asymmetric magnetic energy density in the lobes. Shear flows are induced to restore equilibrium, and these flows are what effectively induces a local $\mathit{B}_{y}$ component. We show the radial dependence of the induced $\mathit{B}_{y}$ and compare the results to the induced $\mathit{B}_{y}$ during southward IMF conditions. We also show the response and reconfiguration time of the inner magnetosphere to IMF $\mathit{B}_{y}$ reversals during northward IMF $\mathit{B}_{z}$. A superposed epoch analysis of magnetic field measurements from seven Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite spacecraft at different local times both for negative-to-positive and positive-to-negative IMF $\mathit{B}_{y}$ reversals is presented. We find that the induced $\mathit{B}_{y}$ responds within 16 min of the arrival of IMF $\mathit{B}_{y}$ at the bow shock, and it completely reconfigures within 47 min

A high-resolution hindcast of wind and waves for The North Sea, The Norwegian Sea and The Barents Sea

A combined high-resolution atmospheric downscaling and wave hindcast based on the ERA-40 reanalysis covering the Norwegian Sea, the North Sea and the Barents Sea is presented. The period covered is from September 1957 to August 2002. The dynamic atmospheric downscaling is performed as a series of short prognostic runs initialized from a blend of ERA-40 and the previous prognostic run to preserve the fine-scale surface features from the high-resolution model while maintaining the large-scale synoptic field from ERA-40. The nested WAM wave model hindcast consists of a coarse 50 km model covering the North Atlantic forced with ERA-40 winds and a nested 10-11 km resolution model forced with downscaled winds. A comparison against in situ and satellite observations of wind and sea state reveals significant improvement in mean values and upper percentiles of wind vectors and the significant wave height over ERA-40. Improvement is also found in the mean wave period. ERA-40 is biased low in wind speed and significant wave height, a bias which is not reproduced by the downscaling. The atmospheric downscaling also reproduces polar lows, which can not be resolved by ERA-40, but the lows are too weak and short-lived as the downscaling is not capable of capturing their full life cycle.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, 6 table

Efficient Bit-Decomposition and Modulus-Conversion Protocols with an Honest Majority

We propose secret-sharing-based bit-decomposition and modulus conversion protocols for a prime order ring $\mathbb{Z}_p$ with an honest majority: an adversary can corrupt $k-1$ parties of $n$ parties and $2k-1 \le n$. Our protocols are secure against passive and active adversaries depending on the components of our protocols. We assume a secret is an $\ell$-bit element and $2^{\ell+\lceil \log m \rceil} < p$, where $m= k$ in the passive security and $m= \binom{n}{k-1}$ in the active security. The outputs of our bit-decomposition and modulus-conversion protocols are $\ell$ tuple of shares in $\mathbb{Z}_2$ and a share in $\mathbb{Z}_{p\u27}$, respectively, where $p\u27$ is the modulus to be converted. If $k$ and $n$ are small, the communication complexity of our passively secure bit-decomposition and modulus-conversion protocols are $O(\ell)$ bits and $O(\lceil \log p\u27 \rceil)$ bits, respectively. Our key observation is that a quotient of additive shares can be computed from the \emph{least} significant $\lceil \log m \rceil$ bits. If a secret $a$ is ``shifted\u27\u27 and additively shared by $x_i$ in $\mathbb{Z}_p$ as $2^{\lceil \log m \rceil}a = \sum_{i=0}^{m-1} x_i = 2^{ \lceil \log m \rceil} a + qp$, the least significant $\lceil \log m \rceil$ bits of $\sum_{i=0}^{m-1} x_i$ determines $q$ since $p$ is an odd prime and the least significant $\lceil \log m \rceil$ bits of $2^{\lceil \log m \rceil} a$ are $0$s

The Acceleration and Storage of Radioactive Ions for a Beta-Beam Facility

The term beta-beam has been coined for the production of a pure beam of electron neutrinos or their antiparticles through the decay of radioactive ions circulating in a storage ring. This concept requires radioactive ions to be accelerated to as high Lorentz gamma as 150. The neutrino source itself consists of a storage ring for this energy range, with long straight sections in line with the experiment(s). Such a decay ring does not exist at CERN today, nor does a high-intensity proton source for the production of the radioactive ions. Nevertheless, the existing CERN accelerator infrastructure could be used as this would still represent an important saving for a beta-beam facility.Comment: beta-beam working group website at http://cern.ch/beta-bea

Testing nowcasts of the ionospheric convection from the expanding and contracting polar cap model

The expanding/contracting polar cap (ECPC) model, or the time-dependent Dungey cycle, provides a theoretical framework for understanding solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. The ECPC describes the relationship between magnetopause reconnection and substorm growth phase, magnetotail reconnection and substorm expansion phase, associated changes in auroral morphology, and ionospheric convective motions. Despite the many successes of the model, there has yet to be a rigorous test of the predictions or nowcasts made regarding ionospheric convection, which remains a final hurdle for the validation of the ECPC. In this study we undertake a comparison of ionospheric convection, as measured in situ by ion drift meters on board DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) satellites and from the ground by SuperDARN (Super Dual Auroral Radar Network), with motions nowcasted by a theoretical model. The model is coupled to measurements of changes in the size of the polar cap made using global auroral imagery from the IMAGE FUV (Imager for Magnetopause to Aurora Global Exploration Far Ultraviolet) instrument, as well as the dayside reconnection rate, estimated using the OMNI data set. The results show that we can largely nowcast the magnitudes of ionospheric convection flows using the context of our understanding of magnetic reconnection at the magnetopause and in the magnetotail

Understanding China’s past and future energy demand: an exergy efficiency and decomposition analysis

There are very few useful work and exergy analysis studies for China, and fewer still that consider how the results inform drivers of past and future energy consumption. This is surprising: China is the world’s largest energy consumer, whilst exergy analysis provides a robust thermodynamic framework for analysing the technical efficiency of energy use. In response, we develop three novel sub-analyses. First we perform a long-term whole economy time-series exergy analysis for China (1971–2010). We find a 10-fold growth in China’s useful work since 1971, which is supplied by a 4-fold increase in primary energy coupled to a 2.5-fold gain in aggregate exergy conversion efficiency to useful work: from 5% to 12.5%. Second, using index decomposition we expose the key driver of efficiency growth as not ‘technological leapfrogging’ but structural change: i.e. increasing reliance on thermodynamically efficient (but very energy intensive) heavy industrial activities. Third, we extend our useful work analysis to estimate China’s future primary energy demand, and find values for 2030 that are significantly above mainstream projections