Ansasteroide: Neues von einem neuartigen Verbindungstyp

In this report we communicate recent results from our investigations with ansa-steroids. Following a detailed inspection of the stereoselectivity of epoxidations, a highly regioselective Baeyer-Villiger oxidation to form lactones was developed. After deciding on the proper starting material, we were also quite successful with the Birch reduction of the aromatic ring to generate cyclohexadienes. Efforts to open the five-membered ring via autoxidation and fragmentation met with failure

A Decision Theoretic Model for Standard Setting and Regulation

This paper presents a decision theoretic model which was developed to aid regulatory agencies in standard setting and regulation tasks. The one stage three decision maker model encompasses the decision making of a regulator, a developer, and an impactee unit. Each decision unit is assumed to follow a basic decision model, which is a combination of a probability model, a difference value judgment model, and an expected utility model. The developer unit is linked to the regulator unit through possible detections of violations of a regulation and sanctions. The impactee unit is linked to the developer unit through pollution generating events stemming from the developer's actions, and the subsequent damages which may result from pollution. This basic regulation model is then specified to safety and emission standard setting. Central in these specifications is a signal detection model which characterizes the uncertainty with which the regulator will detect or miss violations of his regulation. A multistage conditional probability model links the developer's actions, pollution generating events, amounts of pollutants, and possible effects on impactees

Modelling Standard Setting Decisions: An Illustrative Application to Chronic Oil Discharges

This research memorandum presents an illustrative application of a three decision maker, one stage decision model to the problem of setting chronic oil discharge standards. It is the third paper in a series dealing with decision models and their applications to standard setting. The first paper (IIASA, RM-78-5) describes the problematique of oil discharge standard setting faced by the UK and Norwegian governments with the growing oil development in the North Sea. The second paper (IIASA, RM-78-7) provides the formal background of a decision theoretic model which was developed to aid regulatory agencies in standard setting tasks. The present paper is a first attempt to apply this model to a real world standard setting case. The paper took the UK standard setting problem as it arose in 1975 as its starting point. It first describes the regulation problem in terms of sources, amounts, and effects of chronic oil discharges from North Sea production platforms. Then it presents a three decision maker, one stage decision model for standard setting which encompasses the decision making of a regulator unit, a developer unit, and an impactee unit. The decision making of the developer unit is thought as being influenced by a standard through the possibility of detections of violations of the standard and subsequent sanctions. The decision making of the impactee unit is influenced by the operation and treatment decision of the developer unit. Each decision unit is modelled by a decision theoretic model including quantifications of uncertainties and values, determining optimal treatment responses to regulation alternatives, and utilities for all three units as a function of standards. The application of the model is illustrative in character. Although some of the data used in the model were collected during two field studies in the UK and Norway, many quantifications are still hypothetical in the sense that they are not real assessments by the experts and decision makers, but rather reflect the author's perceptions of the decision maker's and expert's opinions and evaluations. Nevertheless the model results provide some basic insights in the standard setting problem for chronic oil discharges

Assessment of value added for surface marine wind speed obtained from two regional climate models

Hindcasts with reanalysis-driven regional climate models (RCMs) are a common tool to assess weather statistics (i.e., climate) and recent changes and trends. The capability of different state-of-the-art RCMs (with and without spectral nudging applied) to add value for surface marine wind speed in comparison to the reanalysis wind speed forcing is assessed by the comparison with observations in the eastern North Atlantic in 1998. Added value is elaborated on instantaneous wind speeds and their frequency distribution. The observations are discriminated into groups according to their proximity to land and assimilation status, meaning whether they are assimilated into the reanalysis or not. For instantaneous wind speeds RCMs do not show added value both in ‘‘open ocean’’ areas and the German Bight. However, in the English Channel, where local topography and associated local wind regimes become important, the regional models show an added value for instantaneous wind speeds. Concerning the wind speed distribution there is a clear indication for an added value of the RCMs in coastal regions, especially for higher wind speed percentiles, while in open-ocean areas no added value is found. In comparison to the unnudged simulation, the spectrally nudged simulations better represent both instantaneous wind speeds and their frequency distribution. These results hold independently of the measurements’ assimilation status. Strictly the findings of this study only hold for hindcast studies, the results may differ for other areas and years

Setting Standards for Chronic Oil Discharges in the North Sea

Public attention has frequently been directed to the large accidental oil spills connected with tanker groundings or breakups and platform blowouts. The operational oil discharges connected with offshore production platforms could, however, have equally severe effects in the offshore environment because the pollution occurs day after day as long as the activities that produce it continue to operate. This study is concerned with such discharges in the North Sea. The study focused on the central actors involved in the standard-setting process for operational or chronic discharges. Each key actor was interviewed in depth to determine their perceptions of the problem, the role of other actors, the alternatives considered and the interactions among actors. This decision-making complex thus includes a variety of decision-making units with varying abilities to influence the outcomes of the standards. Regulator, developer and environmental expert actors formed the basic focus for this effort. The objectives of the regulators and developers are described along with the alternative regulations, treatments and uses of the environment that are considered. Then a comparison and evaluation of the decision process by which Norwegian and U.K. regulators arrived at discharge standards is made. Major findings include the near similarity of the standards set even though the approaches to such standards are perceived to be quite different in each country. Another finding is that entrepreneurial endeavor for oil discharge treatment equipment is a key parameter in deciding on standards since both countries must rely on such effort for what is available. Lack of information on the effects of oil in the sea is another finding along with a minimal role for environmental quality factors in setting standards. Such findings make it difficult to trace trade-offs in the selection process for standard setting. Finally, some suggestions for improvements in this process are noted

A Dynamic Model for Setting Railway Noise Standards

This paper describes the application of a multistage game theoretical model to setting noise standards which is illustrated by the case of trains. The problem was structured to match the decision problem which the Environment Agency faced when setting standards for Shinkansen trains. The model considers three players: the regulator (environment agency), the producer (railway corporation), and the impactees (residents along the railway line who suffer from noise). The game has seven stages characterized by the actions of the impactees ranging from petitions to legal litigation. The final stages are the outcomes of a possible lawsuit. The case is either won by the producer or the impactees, or a compromise is reached. Transition probabilities between stages are considered parameters of the game. They depend mainly on the noise level the impactees consider acceptable, the standard set by the regulator, and the actual level of noise emitted. Only the regulator and the producer are active players in the sense that they have a set of choices characterized as standard levels (regulator) and noise protection measures (producer). The impactees are modeled as a response function. Several solutions according to a hierarchical solution concept of the game are derived. In particular, conditions are given under which the regulator or the producer would prefer a compromise solution to awaiting the outcome of the court case. These conditions can be expressed directly as functions of noise levels and transition probabilities, given some simple assumptions about the shape of the utility functions of the regulator and the producer

Risk, Security and Robust Solutions

The aim of this paper is to develop a decision-theoretic approach to security management of uncertain multi-agent systems. Security is defined as the ability to deal with intentional and unintentional threats generated by agents. The main concern of the paper is the protection of public goods from these threats allowing explicit treatment of inherent uncertainties and robust security management solutions. The paper shows that robust solutions can be properly designed by new stochastic optimization tools applicable for multicriteria problems with uncertain probability distributions and multivariate extreme events