Estimating the frequency of volcanic ash clouds over northern Europe

Fine ash produced during explosive volcanic eruptions can be dispersed over a vast area, where it poses a threat to aviation, human health and infrastructure. Here, we focus on northern Europe, which lies in the principal transport direction for volcanic ash from Iceland, one of the most active volcanic regions in the world. We interrogate existing and newly produced geological and written records of past ash fallout over northern Europe in the last 1000 years and estimate the mean return (repose) interval of a volcanic ash cloud over the region to be 44 ± 7 years. We compare tephra records from mainland northern Europe, Great Britain, Ireland and the Faroe Islands, with records of proximal Icelandic volcanism and suggest that an Icelandic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index rating (VEI) ≥ 4 and a silicic magma composition presents the greatest risk of producing volcanic ash that can reach northern Europe. None of the ash clouds in the European record which have a known source eruption are linked to a source eruption with VEI < 4. Our results suggest that ash clouds are more common over northern Europe than previously proposed and indicate the continued threat of ash deposition across northern Europe from eruptions of both Icelandic and North American volcanoes

Long-term persistence of conservation-reliant species: challenges and opportunities

“Conservation-reliant species” – those fully dependent on continued management actions – are booming and, with limited conservation budgets, securing funds to sustain their long-term viability is becoming overwhelming. This study assesses the degree of dependence on conservation actions of two obligatory cavity-nesters, the Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni and the European Roller Coracias garrulus, whose populations in Europe were recently recovered through artificial nest-site provisioning. Using long-term monitoring data and population surveys conducted in their main Portuguese stronghold, we examined temporal changes in the availability and use of semi-natural (cavities in rural abandoned buildings) and artificial nest-sites. We further assessed the financial costs of nest-site provisioning and evaluated the potential use of tourism revenues as a conservation funding source. Following the implementation of conservation projects, the Lesser Kestrel and Roller populations have been increasing but more than 65% of all breeding pairs currently nest in artificial nest-sites. Semi-natural nest-sites remain suitable for approximately 30 years and are expected to disappear by the end of this century. Lesser Kestrels and Rollers will thus become fully dependent on artificial nest-sites and sustaining their current population sizes is estimated to cost 4500€ per year. This represents less than 1% of the region’s lodging income, largely supported by nature-based tourism. Our findings suggest that reactive conservation measures can be very effective at recovering endangered populations but can make them fully reliant on the perpetuation of those measures. This demands long-term funding, which can be alleviated by tourism revenues in areas with high nature capital values

Do peatlands or lakes provide the most comprehensive distal tephra records?

Despite the widespread application of tephra studies for dating and correlation of stratigraphic sequences (‘tephrochronology’), questions remain over the reliability and replicability of tephra records from lake sediments and peats, particularly in sites >1000 km from source volcanoes. To address this, we examine the tephrostratigraphy of four pairs of lake and peatland sites in close proximity to one another (<10 km), and evaluate the extent to which the microscopic (crypto-) tephra records in lakes and peatlands differ. The peatlands typically record more cryptotephra layers than nearby lakes, but cryptotephra records from high-latitude peatlands can be incomplete, possibly due to tephra fallout onto snow and subsequent redistribution across the peatland surface by wind and during snowmelt. We find no evidence for chemical alteration of glass shards in peatland or lake environments over the time scale of this study (mid- to late- Holocene). Instead, the low number of basaltic cryptotephra layers identified in distal peatlands reflects the capture of only primary tephra-fall, whereas lakes concentrate tephra falling across their catchments which subsequently washes into the lake, adding to the primary tephra fallout received in the lake. A combination of records from both lakes and peatlands must be used to establish the most comprehensive and complete regional tephrostratigraphies. We also describe two previously unreported late Holocene cryptotephras and demonstrate, for the first time, that Holocene Icelandic ash clouds frequently reached Arctic Sweden

Combining Asian and European genome-wide association studies of colorectal cancer improves risk prediction across racial and ethnic populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values < 0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice

A Learning-Based Microultrasound System for the Detection of Inflammation of the Gastrointestinal Tract

Inflammation of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract accompanies several diseases, including Crohn's disease. Currently, video capsule endoscopy and deep bowel enteroscopy are the main means for direct visualisation of the bowel surface. However, the use of optical imaging limits visualisation to the luminal surface only, which makes earlystage diagnosis difficult. In this study, we propose a learning enabled microultrasound (μUS) system that aims to classify inflamed and non-inflamedbowel tissues. μUS images of the caecum, small bowel and colon were obtained from mice treated with agents to induce inflammation. Those images were then used to train three deep learning networks and to provide a ground truth of inflammation status. The classification accuracy was evaluated using 10-fold evaluation and additional B-scan images. Our deep learning approach allowed robust differentiation between healthy tissue and tissue with early signs of inflammation that is not detectable by current endoscopic methods or by human inspection of the μUS images. The methods may be a foundation for future early GI disease diagnosis and enhanced management with computer-aided imaging

Paleoenvironmental conditions recorded by 87Sr/86Sr, δ13C and δ18O in late Pliensbachian–Toarcian (Jurassic) belemnites from Bulgaria

The late Pliensbachian–Toarcian (Jurassic) sedimentological, paleontological and geochemical (belemnite 87Sr/86Sr, δ13C and δ18O) record is examined in two Eastern Tethyan (Bulgarian) locations. This interval contains the well-known early Toarcian ocean anoxic event (T-OAE) and its manifestation and temporal context is examined in Bulgaria. Many of the features seen in south-western Europe are identified: collapse of carbonate platform productivity at the Pliensbachian/Toarcian boundary, the T-OAE (a short pulse of euxinic deposition in the Falciferum Zone), an early Toarcian rapid warming event seen in the belemnite δ18O record that peaked around the Falciferum/Bifrons Zone boundary. The long-recognized positive δ13C excursion in the late Falciferum Zone is also seen but a precursor, sharp δ13C negative excursion seen around the Tenuicostatum/Falciferum Zone boundary in most organic carbon records is not seen in the belemnite data, a curious absence noted from other belemnite records. Subsequent perturbations in 87Sr/86Sr, δ13C and δ18O suggest that there may be more global isotopic excursions in the Early Jurassic. On the other hand, belemnite Sr isotope values from Bulgaria are in accord with those recorded in Western Europe and hence, demonstrating its value as a chronostratigraphic tool

Detection of delayed density dependence in an orchid population

1 Annual censuses of Orchis morio (green-winged orchid) flowering spikes have been taken over a 27-year period in a replicated factorial experiment on the effects of fertilizer application. Census data, combined by block or treatment, were used in time-series analyses to test for density dependence. 2 Partial autocorrelation functions revealed the importance of positive correlations at lag 1 and negative correlations at lag 5. Stepwise multiple regressions provided evidence of delayed density dependence, again with a delay of about 5 years, with no evidence of direct (first-order) density dependence. 3 First-order autocorrelations and delayed density dependence were considered in the light of the known stage structure and generation time of the plant and the possibility of density dependence at different points in the life history. 4 Model structure affects the detection of density dependence, increasing the propensity for type I errors