Combination of school evacuation drill with tsunami inundation simulation: Consensus-making between disaster experts and citizens on an evacuation strategy

This paper aims to introduce an effective methodology for communicating a science-based tsunami risk scenario to non-expert citizens through consensus-making between disaster experts and non-experts, with the aid of four-way split-screen movie clips depicting evacuation scenarios. Action research on tsunami education in Zihuatanejo, Mexico found that a perception of tsunamis as catastrophic together with the one-directional nature of risk communication resulted in inaction on the part of non-experts in disaster preparedness, contrary to the expectations of experts. In other words, non-experts did not think that they could cope with a tsunami disaster and they perceived that as non-experts they themselves could not affect the tsunami risk scenario communicated to them by the experts. In response, movie clips simultaneously displaying a school evacuation drill and tsunami inundation simulation were developed. These movie clips are intended to serve as a tool in the process of establishing a school tsunami evacuation strategy by promoting consensus-making between experts and non-experts about the risk scenario, thereby helping to change the perception of a tsunami from a catastrophe that cannot be dealt with by non-experts to a realistic perception that non-experts can indeed help by engaging in their own tsunami risk preparedness activities. The developed movie clips were used at a workshop for stakeholders, including academics, local government, and teachers, with the aims of establishing scenario-based evacuation strategies and promoting the proactive implementation of preparedness activities by non-expert teachers. The study will contribute to establishing a mechanism for applying scientific knowledge to solving societal issues

Valuations and dynamic convex risk measures

This paper approaches the definition and properties of dynamic convex risk measures through the notion of a family of concave valuation operators satisfying certain simple and credible axioms. Exploring these in the simplest context of a finite time set and finite sample space, we find natural risk-transfer and time-consistency properties for a firm seeking to spread its risk across a group of subsidiaries.Comment: 26 page

D3-D7 Quark-Gluon Plasmas at Finite Baryon Density

We present the string dual to SU(Nc) N=4 SYM, coupled to Nf massless fundamental flavors, at finite temperature and baryon density. The solution is determined by two dimensionless parameters, both depending on the 't Hooft coupling $\lambda_h$ at the scale set by the temperature T: $\epsilon_h\sim\lambda_h Nf/Nc$, weighting the backreaction of the flavor fields and $\tilde\delta\sim\lambda_h^{-1/2}nb/(Nf T^3)$, where $nb$ is the baryon density. For small values of these two parameters the solution is given analytically up to second order. We study the thermodynamics of the system in the canonical and grand-canonical ensembles. We then analyze the energy loss of partons moving through the plasma, computing the jet quenching parameter and studying its dependence on the baryon density. Finally, we analyze certain "optical" properties of the plasma. The whole setup is generalized to non abelian strongly coupled plasmas engineered on D3-D7 systems with D3-branes placed at the tip of a generic singular Calabi-Yau cone. In all the cases, fundamental matter fields are introduced by means of homogeneously smeared D7-branes and the flavor symmetry group is thus a product of abelian factors.Comment: 27 pages; v2: 29 pages, 1 (new) figure, new section 4.4 on optical properties, references, comments added; v3: eq. (3.19), comments and a reference adde

Aerobic submerged fermentation by acetic acid bacteria for vinegar production: process and biotechnological aspects

Strictly aerobic acetic acid bacteria (AAB) have a long history of use in fermentation processes, and the conversion of ethanol to acetic acid for the production of vinegar is the most well-known application. At the industrial scale, vinegar is mainly produced by submerged fermentation, which refers to an aerobic process in which the ethanol in beverages such as spirits, wine or cider is oxidized to acetic acid by AAB. Submerged fermentation requires robust AAB strains that are able to oxidize ethanol under selective conditions to produce high-titer acetic acid. Currently submerged fermentation is conducted by unselected AAB cultures, which are derived from previous acetification stocks and maintained by repeated cultivation cycles. In this work, submerged fermentation for vinegar production is discussed with regard to advances in process optimization and parameters (oxygen availability, acetic acid content and temperature) that influence AAB activity. Furthermore, the potential impact arising from the use of selected AAB is described. Overcoming the acetification constraints is a main goal in order to facilitate innovation in submerged fermentation and to create new industry-challenging perspectives

Transcriptomic Events Involved in Melon Mature-Fruit Abscission Comprise the Sequential Induction of Cell-Wall Degrading Genes Coupled to a Stimulation of Endo and Exocytosis

Background: Mature-fruit abscission (MFA) in fleshy-fruit is a genetically controlled process with mechanisms that, contrary to immature-fruit abscission, has not been fully characterized. Here, we use pyrosequencing to characterize the transcriptomes of melon abscission zone (AZ) at three stages during AZ-cell separation in order to understand MFA control at an early stage of AZ-activation. Principal Findings: The results show that by early induction of MFA, the melon AZ exhibits major gene induction, while by late induction of MFA, melon AZ shows major gene repression. Although some genes displayed similar regulation in both early and late induction of abscission, such as EXT1-EXT4, EGase1, IAA2, ERF1, AP2D15, FLC, MADS2, ERAF17, SAP5 and SCL13 genes, the majority had different expression patterns. This implies that time-specific events occur during MFA, and emphasizes the value of characterizing multiple time-specific abscission transcriptomes. Analysis of gene-expression from these AZs reveal that a sequential induction of cell-wall-degrading genes is associated with the upregulation of genes involved in endo and exocytosis, and a shift in plant-hormone metabolism and signaling genes during MFA. This is accompanied by transcriptional activity of small-GTPases and synthaxins together with tubulins, dynamins, V-type ATPases and kinesin-like proteins potentially involved in MFA signaling. Early events are potentially controlled by down-regulation of MADS-box, AP2/ERF and Aux/IAA transcription-factors, and up-regulation of homeobox, zinc finger, bZIP, and WRKY transcription-factors, while late events may be controlled by up-regulation of MYB transcription-factors. Significance: Overall, the data provide a comprehensive view on MFA in fleshy-fruit, identifying candidate genes and pathways associated with early induction of MFA. Our comprehensive gene-expression profile will be very useful for elucidating gene regulatory networks of the MFA in fleshy-fruit

Certified reference materials for radionuclides in Bikini Atoll sediment (IAEA-410) and Pacific Ocean sediment (IAEA-412)

The preparation and characterization of certified reference materials (CRMs) for radionuclide content in sediments collected offshore of Bikini Atoll (IAEA-410) and in the open northwest Pacific Ocean (IAEA-412) are described and the results of the certification process are presented. The certified radionuclides include: 40K, 210Pb (210Po), 226Ra, 228Ra, 228Th, 232Th, 234U, 238U, 239Pu, 239+240Pu and 241Am for IAEA-410 and 40K, 137Cs, 210Pb (210Po), 226Ra, 228Ra, 228Th, 232Th, 235U, 238U, 239Pu, 240Pu and 239+240Pu for IAEA-412. The CRMs can be used for quality assurance and quality control purposes in the analysis of radionuclides in sediments, for development and validation of analytical methods and for staff training

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362