Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

31st Annual Meeting and Associated Programs of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC 2016) : part two

Background The immunological escape of tumors represents one of the main ob- stacles to the treatment of malignancies. The blockade of PD-1 or CTLA-4 receptors represented a milestone in the history of immunotherapy. However, immune checkpoint inhibitors seem to be effective in specific cohorts of patients. It has been proposed that their efficacy relies on the presence of an immunological response. Thus, we hypothesized that disruption of the PD-L1/PD-1 axis would synergize with our oncolytic vaccine platform PeptiCRAd. Methods We used murine B16OVA in vivo tumor models and flow cytometry analysis to investigate the immunological background. Results First, we found that high-burden B16OVA tumors were refractory to combination immunotherapy. However, with a more aggressive schedule, tumors with a lower burden were more susceptible to the combination of PeptiCRAd and PD-L1 blockade. The therapy signifi- cantly increased the median survival of mice (Fig. 7). Interestingly, the reduced growth of contralaterally injected B16F10 cells sug- gested the presence of a long lasting immunological memory also against non-targeted antigens. Concerning the functional state of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), we found that all the immune therapies would enhance the percentage of activated (PD-1pos TIM- 3neg) T lymphocytes and reduce the amount of exhausted (PD-1pos TIM-3pos) cells compared to placebo. As expected, we found that PeptiCRAd monotherapy could increase the number of antigen spe- cific CD8+ T cells compared to other treatments. However, only the combination with PD-L1 blockade could significantly increase the ra- tio between activated and exhausted pentamer positive cells (p= 0.0058), suggesting that by disrupting the PD-1/PD-L1 axis we could decrease the amount of dysfunctional antigen specific T cells. We ob- served that the anatomical location deeply influenced the state of CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes. In fact, TIM-3 expression was in- creased by 2 fold on TILs compared to splenic and lymphoid T cells. In the CD8+ compartment, the expression of PD-1 on the surface seemed to be restricted to the tumor micro-environment, while CD4 + T cells had a high expression of PD-1 also in lymphoid organs. Interestingly, we found that the levels of PD-1 were significantly higher on CD8+ T cells than on CD4+ T cells into the tumor micro- environment (p < 0.0001). Conclusions In conclusion, we demonstrated that the efficacy of immune check- point inhibitors might be strongly enhanced by their combination with cancer vaccines. PeptiCRAd was able to increase the number of antigen-specific T cells and PD-L1 blockade prevented their exhaus- tion, resulting in long-lasting immunological memory and increased median survival

Low-Cost Water Pump Design/Testing to Serve Rural Villages (Semester Unknown) IPRO 323: Low-Cost Water Pump DesignTesting to Serve Rural Villages IPRO 323 MidTerm Presentation Sp08

The objective of IRPO 323 is to find and optimize a system to deliver drinkable water to communities that do not have easy access to water. Mainly in locating a water source accessible to the region based on geographical limitations. From there, creation of a system to draw out the water in order to meet the demands of the people based on their lifestyle. The system has to be easy to maintain, fulfill the water requirement, and is cost effective in the life of the design. However, in order to fully understand the system and its limitations a test model will be used. In order to accomplish this project in a timely manner each individual will have to learn, develop, and apply interpersonal skills, research methods, and coordination. The set objectives, therefore, are:  Evaluate water sources and water demands of the target community  Design a system for this community  Research products and costs for system components  Create a test model to better understand the system componentsSponsorship: US Environmental Protection Agency, National Collegiate Inventors & Innovators Alliance (NCIIA) and Stuart GrantsDeliverable

Low-Cost Water Pump Design/Testing to Serve Rural Villages (Semester Unknown) IPRO 323: Low-Cost Water Pump DesignTesting to Serve Rural Villages IPRO 323 Project Plan Sp08

The objective of IRPO 323 is to find and optimize a system to deliver drinkable water to communities that do not have easy access to water. Mainly in locating a water source accessible to the region based on geographical limitations. From there, creation of a system to draw out the water in order to meet the demands of the people based on their lifestyle. The system has to be easy to maintain, fulfill the water requirement, and is cost effective in the life of the design. However, in order to fully understand the system and its limitations a test model will be used. In order to accomplish this project in a timely manner each individual will have to learn, develop, and apply interpersonal skills, research methods, and coordination. The set objectives, therefore, are:  Evaluate water sources and water demands of the target community  Design a system for this community  Research products and costs for system components  Create a test model to better understand the system componentsSponsorship: US Environmental Protection Agency, National Collegiate Inventors & Innovators Alliance (NCIIA) and Stuart GrantsDeliverable

Knowledge, attitude, and practice toward herpes zoster (HZ) and HZ vaccination: Concept elicitation findings from a multi-country study in the Asia Pacific

ABSTRACTHerpes zoster (HZ) is a prevalent disease characterized by a painful rash. A multi‑country study was conducted to elicit public and physician knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) toward HZ disease and vaccination for the assessment of local factors influencing HZ vaccine perceptions in four Asian-Pacific countries/territories One-to-one qualitative interviews were conducted in 2022, among the public (people aged ≥ 50 years, adults with parents aged ≥ 50 years, zoster vaccine live-vaccinated individuals aged ≥ 50 years in Republic of Korea, and HZ patients; n = 78) and physicians (general practitioners and specialists; n = 24). Themes surrounding KAP toward HZ and HZ vaccination were summarized using a thematic analysis. A substantial knowledge gap related to HZ was observed among the public, including its causes, long-term impacts, and the at-risk population. There was a low perceived risk of HZ and low general awareness of HZ vaccine availability, although country/territory-specific differences existed. Fear of HZ-associated pain contributed toward vaccination intent among HZ patients and adults with parents aged ≥ 50 years. HZ-naïve adults who were encouraged to receive the vaccine by others were not motivated to do so due to optimism bias. Physicians were perceived to be a reliable source of information. However, physicians did not always proactively discuss HZ vaccination due to time constraints and a perceived need to prioritize other vaccinations including influenza and pneumococcal vaccines. Initiatives are needed to improve public awareness of HZ and its complications, in terms of overall impact on individuals and society, and highlight the important role of physicians in recommending vaccination

Low-Cost Water Pump Design/Testing to Serve Rural Villages (Semester Unknown) IPRO 323

The objective of IRPO 323 is to find and optimize a system to deliver drinkable water to communities that do not have easy access to water. Mainly in locating a water source accessible to the region based on geographical limitations. From there, creation of a system to draw out the water in order to meet the demands of the people based on their lifestyle. The system has to be easy to maintain, fulfill the water requirement, and is cost effective in the life of the design. However, in order to fully understand the system and its limitations a test model will be used. In order to accomplish this project in a timely manner each individual will have to learn, develop, and apply interpersonal skills, research methods, and coordination. The set objectives, therefore, are:  Evaluate water sources and water demands of the target community  Design a system for this community  Research products and costs for system components  Create a test model to better understand the system componentsSponsorship: US Environmental Protection Agency, National Collegiate Inventors & Innovators Alliance (NCIIA) and Stuart GrantsDeliverable

Low-Cost Water Pump Design/Testing to Serve Rural Villages (Semester Unknown) IPRO 323: Low-Cost Water Pump DesignTesting to Serve Rural Villages IPRO 323 Final Presentation Sp08

The objective of IRPO 323 is to find and optimize a system to deliver drinkable water to communities that do not have easy access to water. Mainly in locating a water source accessible to the region based on geographical limitations. From there, creation of a system to draw out the water in order to meet the demands of the people based on their lifestyle. The system has to be easy to maintain, fulfill the water requirement, and is cost effective in the life of the design. However, in order to fully understand the system and its limitations a test model will be used. In order to accomplish this project in a timely manner each individual will have to learn, develop, and apply interpersonal skills, research methods, and coordination. The set objectives, therefore, are:  Evaluate water sources and water demands of the target community  Design a system for this community  Research products and costs for system components  Create a test model to better understand the system componentsSponsorship: US Environmental Protection Agency, National Collegiate Inventors & Innovators Alliance (NCIIA) and Stuart GrantsDeliverable